{"id":62171,"date":"2025-07-22T08:03:33","date_gmt":"2025-07-22T08:03:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=62171"},"modified":"2025-07-22T08:05:36","modified_gmt":"2025-07-22T08:05:36","slug":"sp-500-weakens-and-gold-rallies","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/07\/22\/sp-500-weakens-and-gold-rallies\/","title":{"rendered":"S&#038;P 500 weakens and gold rallies"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4>Key Points<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>The S&amp;P 500 closed above 6300 for the first time, supported by strong liquidity<\/li>\n<li>But declining Trend Index peaks warn of a retracement<\/li>\n<li>Consumer Confidence remains weak, and the Conference Board Leading Economic Index signals a recession<\/li>\n<li>Gold and silver rallied as the dollar weakened<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 closed above 6300 for the first time, but declining Trend Index peaks warn of selling pressure. Expect retracement to test support at 6100.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-07-21-spx.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average also signals weakness, with declining Trend Index peaks indicating selling pressure.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-07-21-dow.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Dow Jones Industrial Average\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The Broad DJ US Index (red) has underperformed the DJ World ex-US index (blue) over the past six months.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-07-21-djus-w2.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"DJ US Index ($DJUS) &amp; DJ World ex-US ($W2DOW)\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Financial Markets<\/h2>\n<p>Financial markets grow increasingly supportive, with the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) declining to -0.54. Values above zero are considered restrictive.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-07-21-nfci.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Bitcoin has retraced slightly from resistance at $120K, but still signals bullish market conditions.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-07-21-btc.png?resize=525%2C361&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Bitcoin (BTC)\" width=\"525\" height=\"361\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Treasury Markets<\/h2>\n<p>10-Year Treasury yields declined to 4.35%, but rising Trend Index troughs signal continued buying pressure.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-07-21-tnx.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"10-Year Treasury Yield\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Economy<\/h2>\n<p>Consumer confidence remains low, with the Conference Board index declining by 5 points to 93, similar to levels during the 2020 pandemic.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>June\u2019s retreat in confidence was shared by all age groups and almost all income groups. It was also shared across all political affiliations, with the largest decline among Republicans.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-07-21-confidence.png?resize=525%2C323&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Conference Board: Consumer Confidence\" width=\"525\" height=\"323\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The Conference Board\u2019s Leading Economic Index (LEI) declined to 99.8% in June. Six-month growth in the LEI (blue) fell to an annualized -5.6%, below the -4.1% that signals a recession (marked in red).<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-07-21-lei-warning.png?resize=525%2C296&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Conference Board Leading Economic Index - Recession Signals\" width=\"525\" height=\"296\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The black line on the above chart indicates negative growth in more than 50% of the LEI components below over the past six months. A broad decline confirms the recession signal.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-07-21-lei-components.png?resize=525%2C286&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Conference Board Leading Economic Index - Components\" width=\"525\" height=\"286\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Dollar &amp; Gold<\/h2>\n<p>The Dollar Index retreated below support at 98, signaling another decline. A breach of support of 96.50 would strengthen our long-term target of 90.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-07-21-dxy.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Dollar Index\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Gold rallied to test resistance at $3,400 per ounce. A breakout above $3,400 would offer an immediate target of $3,500 and strengthen our year-end target of $4,000.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-07-21-gold2.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Spot Gold\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Silver is testing resistance at $39 per ounce. A breakout would offer a target of $42, but declining Trend Index peaks warn of stubborn resistance.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-07-21-silver.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Spot Silver\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 closed at a new high, but declining Trend Index peaks warn of selling pressure.<\/p>\n<p>The Dow Industrial Average respected resistance at 45,000, failing to confirm the S&amp;P 500 bull market signal.<\/p>\n<p>Financial market conditions indicate strong liquidity, but consumer confidence is weak, and the Conference Board Leading Economic Index signals a recession.<\/p>\n<p>The US Dollar Index retreated below support at 98, triggering a rally in gold and silver. A gold breakout above $3,400 would offer an immediate target of $3,500 and strengthen our year-end target of $4,000. A silver breakout above $39 would offer a target of $42, but declining Trend Index peaks warn of stubborn resistance.<\/p>\n<h4>Acknowledgments<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>CoinDesk: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.coindesk.com\/price\/bitcoin\">Bitcoin<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Federal Reserve of St Louis: <a href=\" https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/\">FRED Data<\/a><\/li>\n<li>The Conference Board: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conference-board.org\/topics\/us-leading-indicators\">Leading Economic Index<\/a><\/li>\n<li>The Conference Board: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conference-board.org\/topics\/consumer-confidence\">Consumer Confidence<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key Points The S&amp;P 500 closed above 6300 for the first time, supported by strong liquidity But declining Trend Index peaks warn of a retracement Consumer Confidence remains weak, and the Conference Board Leading Economic Index signals a recession Gold and silver rallied as the dollar weakened The S&amp;P 500 closed above 6300 for the &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/07\/22\/sp-500-weakens-and-gold-rallies\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;S&#038;P 500 weakens and gold rallies&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,5342,6,3761,9,34,35],"tags":[69,5056,6622,6644,5768,1073,1113,3010,3204,3206],"class_list":["post-62171","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-cryptocurrency","category-fixed-income","category-gdp-and-activity","category-gold-precious-metals","category-us-canada-countries-regions","category-us-dollar-index","tag-10-year-treasury-yield","tag-bitcoin-btc","tag-chicago-fed-national-financial-conditions-index","tag-conference-board-consumer-confidence","tag-conference-board-leading-economic-indicator","tag-dollar-index","tag-dow-jones-industrial-average","tag-sp-500","tag-spot-gold","tag-spot-silver"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>S&amp;P 500 weakens and gold rallies - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"S&amp;P 500 weakens and gold rallies - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Key Points The S&amp;P 500 closed above 6300 for the first time, supported by strong liquidity But declining Trend Index peaks warn of a retracement Consumer Confidence remains weak, and the Conference Board Leading Economic Index signals a recession Gold and silver rallied as the dollar weakened The S&amp;P 500 closed above 6300 for the &hellip; 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-gaL","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":62072,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/06\/27\/sp-500-breakout-but-no-buy-signal\/","url_meta":{"origin":62171,"position":0},"title":"S&#038;P 500 breakout but no buy signal","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 27, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Summary The S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached new highs, but the Dow has not yet confirmed the breakout Liquidity is strong, and long-term Treasury yields are softening But the Conference Board Leading Economic Index warns of a recession The dollar keeps falling, and demand for gold remains strong, flagging high\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-26-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-26-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-26-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":56829,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/08\/21\/dollar-plunges-while-us-leading-index-warns-of-low-growth\/","url_meta":{"origin":62171,"position":1},"title":"Dollar plunges, while US Leading Index warns of low growth","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 21, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The weakening Dollar and lower interest rates are likely to boost demand for gold and silver. Stocks remain hesitant as signs of tightening liquidity increase, while the Conference Board Leading Economic Index continues to warn of low economic growth ahead. Stocks The S&P 500 paused at 5600. The Trend Index\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-20-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-20-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-20-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":61734,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/05\/21\/gold-rallies-as-the-dollar-weakens-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":62171,"position":2},"title":"Gold rallies as the dollar weakens","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 21, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Summary The S&P 500 is consolidating below 6000, and financial market liquidity is improving However,\u00a0US stocks are underperforming their global counterparts Gold rallies as LT Treasury yields rise and the dollar weakens The S&P 500 is consolidating between 5800, its former primary support level, and 6000 on the weekly chart\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-21-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-21-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-21-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":62084,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/07\/01\/stock-rise-while-gold-bear-trap-snaps-shut\/","url_meta":{"origin":62171,"position":3},"title":"Stocks rise while gold bear trap snaps shut","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 1, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Summary The S&P 500 reached another new high, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average has not yet confirmed the breakout Long-term Treasury yields are softening However, the dollar is weakening, and gold completed a bear trap, warning of more volatility Stocks The S&P 500 reached a new high after breaking\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-30-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-30-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-30-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":61449,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/03\/29\/dow-bear-market-awaits-while-gold-soars-to-new-high\/","url_meta":{"origin":62171,"position":4},"title":"Dow bear market strengthens while gold soars to new high","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 29, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Reversals on the Dow and S&P 500 strengthened our bear market signal, ending the bull market that started in January 2023. The Magnificent Seven mega-cap technology stocks all show losses for the first quarter, led by Tesla (TSLA), down 30%. The S&P 500 respected resistance at the former primary support\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Magnificent 7 Technology Stocks","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-28-mag7.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-28-mag7.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-28-mag7.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":61395,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/03\/18\/dow-and-sp-500-bounce-gold-soars-to-new-highs\/","url_meta":{"origin":62171,"position":5},"title":"Dow and S&#038;P 500 bounce, gold soars to new highs","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 18, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The Dow and S&P 500 show a healthy bounce. However, the bear market signal stands even if they recover above their primary support levels. The S&P 500 gained 0.6% but encountered selling near the close. Respect of resistance at 5800 would confirm the earlier bear signal, a reliable entry point\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-17-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-17-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-17-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62171","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=62171"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62171\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":62176,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62171\/revisions\/62176"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=62171"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=62171"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=62171"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}