{"id":6217,"date":"2012-11-18T05:36:34","date_gmt":"2012-11-18T10:36:34","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=6217"},"modified":"2012-11-18T05:36:34","modified_gmt":"2012-11-18T10:36:34","slug":"the-foolproof-way","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/11\/18\/the-foolproof-way\/","title":{"rendered":"The Foolproof Way"},"content":{"rendered":"

In his 2003 paper Escaping from a Liquidity Trap and Deflation: The Foolproof Way and Others<\/a> Lars E.O. Svensson describes his Foolproof Way of escaping from a liquidity trap — experienced by countries such as Japan, and lately the US, when central bank interest rates are close to zero.<\/p>\n

The Foolproof Way consequently consists of announcing and implementing three measures: 1) an upward-sloping price-level target path, starting above the current price level by a price gap to undo; 2) a depreciation and a crawling peg of the currency; and 3) an exit strategy in the form of the abandonment of the peg in favor of inflation or price-level targeting when the price-level target path has been reached.
\nAs discussed in the previous subsection, a currency depreciation and a crawling peg is unique in providing the central bank with a concrete action that demonstrates the central bank\u2019s commitment to a higher future price level, establishes credibility for the peg, induces private-sector expectations of a higher future price level, and stimulates the economy by reducing the real interest rate. As argued, via a depreciation and a crawling peg with a rate of appreciation approximately equal to the average foreign interest rate, the central bank can actually implement approximately the optimal way to escape from a liquidity trap and strike the optimal balance between current stimulus of the economy and the future price level. Furthermore, as discussed, the exchange rate is unique in providing a relatively direct measure of the private-sector expectations of the future price level.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In his 2003 paper Escaping from a Liquidity Trap and Deflation: The Foolproof Way and Others Lars E.O. Svensson describes his Foolproof Way of escaping from a liquidity trap — experienced by countries such as Japan, and lately the US, when central bank interest rates are close to zero. The Foolproof Way consequently consists of … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “The Foolproof Way”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,17,34],"tags":[858,916,2121,2753],"class_list":["post-6217","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-japan-korea","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-crawling-peg","tag-currency-depreciation","tag-liquidity-trap","tag-price-level-targeting"],"yoast_head":"\nThe Foolproof Way - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Foolproof Way - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In his 2003 paper Escaping from a Liquidity Trap and Deflation: The Foolproof Way and Others Lars E.O. Svensson describes his Foolproof Way of escaping from a liquidity trap — experienced by countries such as Japan, and lately the US, when central bank interest rates are close to zero. 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Svensson describes the liquidity trap experienced by countries such as Japan and lately the US, when central bank interest rates are close to zero percent. If the nominal interest rate is initially\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":11579,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/02\/26\/gold-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":6217,"position":1},"title":"Gold and the impact of Beijing on Fed monetary policy","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"February 26, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"The prospect of higher interest rates is fast approaching, but 10-Year Treasury yields retreated below 2.0%, warning of another test of the December low at 1.40%. The weight of foreign purchases, for reasons other than yield (dollar peg\/currency manipulation), may be overwhelming the market response. This has happened before, in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Fixed Income"","block_context":{"text":"Fixed Income","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/fixed-income\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yields","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-02-26-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-02-26-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2015\/2015-02-26-tnx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":62466,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/09\/20\/silver-at-14-year-high-despite-dollar-rally\/","url_meta":{"origin":6217,"position":2},"title":"Silver at 14-year high despite dollar rally","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 20, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points Long-term Treasury yields and the dollar rallied after the Fed was less dovish than expected at this week's FOMC meeting. Expect the dollar downtrend to continue as foreign investors increasingly hedge their dollar exposure. Gold and silver are expected to rise, with respective price targets of $4,000 and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yield","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-19-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-19-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-19-tnx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13512,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/06\/28\/gold-rises-as-the-yuan-and-interest-rates-fall\/","url_meta":{"origin":6217,"position":3},"title":"Gold rises as the Yuan and interest rates fall","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"June 28, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"China seems to have given up on its policy of supporting the Yuan against the Dollar, with USDCNY breaking through resistance at 6.60. Depleting foreign reserves to support the Dollar-peg was always going to be a tough call for the PBOC. But the alternative of increased capital flight and rising\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"USDCNY","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-06-28-cny.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-06-28-cny.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-06-28-cny.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":50728,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/04\/04\/brent-crude-approaching-90-gold-at-2300\/","url_meta":{"origin":6217,"position":4},"title":"Brent crude approaching $90, Gold at $2300","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 4, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The ISM Services PMI shows the US economy is expanding but at a slower pace. Brent crude and Gold warn of higher inflation but financial market liquidity is keeping a lid on long-term interest rates. Crude Oil Brent crude continues its advance, reaching $89.43 per barrel on Wednesday. Our medium-term\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Brent Crude","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-04-03-brent.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-04-03-brent.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-04-03-brent.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":12558,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/11\/23\/bank-of-america-the-great-divorce-between-the-worlds-two-largest-economies-will-drive-currency-and-rates-markets-in-2016-bloomberg-business\/","url_meta":{"origin":6217,"position":5},"title":"Bank of America: The ‘Great Divorce’ Between the World’s Two Largest Economies","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"November 23, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"Luke Kawa at Bloomberg quotes David Woo, head of global rates and currencies research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch: \"On the eve of the December FOMC meeting, we think the question is not whether the U.S. economy can live with higher interest rates and a higher U.S. dollar. 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