{"id":62158,"date":"2025-07-19T03:48:39","date_gmt":"2025-07-19T03:48:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=62158"},"modified":"2025-07-19T03:48:39","modified_gmt":"2025-07-19T03:48:39","slug":"asx-market-leading-indicators-9","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/07\/19\/asx-market-leading-indicators-9\/","title":{"rendered":"ASX Market Leading Indicators"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\"Bull-Bear<\/div>\n
\"Stock<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

The gauge on the left indicates bull or bear market status, while the one on the right reflects stock market drawdown risk.<\/p>\n

Bull\/Bear Market<\/h2>\n

The ASX Bull-Bear Market indicator remains at 54%, after declining from 64% two weeks ago. Three of six indicators from Australia and China signal risk-off, with a combined weighting of 60% in the ASX Bull-Bear Index, while the US Bull-Bear Index makes up the remaining 40%.<\/p>\n

\"ASX<\/p>\n

The ASX 200 is in a strong uptrend but has lost nearly 60% relative to gold (in Australian Dollars) over the past ten years.<\/p>\n

\"China:<\/p>\n

Stock Pricing<\/h2>\n

ASX stock pricing jumped sharply, reaching a new high of 87.85 percent, from a low of 67.85 percent in April.<\/p>\n

\"ASX<\/p>\n

We use z-scores to measure each indicator’s current position relative to its history, with the result expressed in standard deviations from the mean. We then calculate an average for the five readings and convert that to a percentile. The higher that stock market pricing is relative to its historical mean, the greater the risk of a sharp drawdown.<\/p>\n

The 20% trimmed mean of forward PE ratios in the ASX 20 climbed to 23.33 times earnings. The 96.44th percentile warns that pricing is extreme.<\/p>\n

\"ASX<\/p>\n

Conclusion<\/h2>\n

The ASX is now in a mild bear market, while the extreme valuation increases the risk of a significant drawdown.<\/p>\n

Acknowledgments<\/h4>\n