{"id":6215,"date":"2012-11-18T05:11:50","date_gmt":"2012-11-18T10:11:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=6215"},"modified":"2012-11-18T05:11:50","modified_gmt":"2012-11-18T10:11:50","slug":"the-liquidity-trap","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/11\/18\/the-liquidity-trap\/","title":{"rendered":"The Liquidity Trap"},"content":{"rendered":"

In his 2003 paper Escaping from a Liquidity Trap and Deflation: The Foolproof Way and Others<\/a> Lars E.O. Svensson describes the liquidity trap experienced by countries such as Japan and lately the US, when central bank interest rates are close to zero percent.<\/p>\n

If the nominal interest rate is initially low, which it is when inflation and expected future inflation are low, the central bank does not have much room to lower the interest rate further. But with deflation and expectations of deflation, even a nominal interest rate of zero percent can result in a substantially positive real interest rate that is higher than the level required to stimulate the economy out of recession and deflation. Nominal interest rates cannot fall below zero, since potential lenders would then hold cash rather than lend at negative interest rates. This is the socalled \u201czero lower bound for interest rates.\u201d
\nIn particular, conventional monetary policy seems unable to provide sufficient stimulus to the economy and address recession and deflation once the zero lower bound for interest rates has been reached. The problem is that the economy is then satiated with liquidity and the private sector is effectively indifferent between holding zero-interest-rate Treasury bills and money. In this situation, standard open-market operations by the central bank to expand the monetary base by buying Treasury bills lead the private sector to hold fewer Treasury bills and more money \u2013 but this has no effect on prices and quantities in the economy. When this \u201cliquidity trap\u201d occurs, expanding liquidity (the monetary base) beyond the satiation point has no effect. If a combination of a liquidity trap and deflation causes the real interest rate to remain too high, the economy may sink further into a prolonged recession and deflation.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In his 2003 paper Escaping from a Liquidity Trap and Deflation: The Foolproof Way and Others Lars E.O. Svensson describes the liquidity trap experienced by countries such as Japan and lately the US, when central bank interest rates are close to zero percent. If the nominal interest rate is initially low, which it is when … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “The Liquidity Trap”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,17,34],"tags":[990,2121,2880,3738,3740,3743],"class_list":["post-6215","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-japan-korea","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-deflation","tag-liquidity-trap","tag-recession","tag-zero-interest-rate-policy","tag-zero-lower-bound-for-interest-rates","tag-zirp"],"yoast_head":"\nThe Liquidity Trap - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Liquidity Trap - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In his 2003 paper Escaping from a Liquidity Trap and Deflation: The Foolproof Way and Others Lars E.O. 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Svensson describes his Foolproof Way of escaping from a liquidity trap -- experienced by countries such as Japan, and lately the US, when central bank interest rates are close to zero. The\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":7617,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/04\/30\/eurozone-risks-japan-style-trap-as-deflation-grinds-closer-telegraph\/","url_meta":{"origin":6215,"position":1},"title":"Eurozone risks Japan-style trap as deflation grinds closer | Telegraph","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"April 30, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Ambrose Evans-Pritchard reports: The region\u2019s core inflation rate \u2013 which strips out food and energy \u2013 fell to 1pc in March. This is far below expectations and leaves monetary union with a diminishing safety buffer. \u201cThe eurozone is tracking the experience in Japan in mid-1990s. There is a very high\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":20236,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/04\/11\/gold-and-the-great-inflation\/","url_meta":{"origin":6215,"position":2},"title":"Gold and The Great Inflation","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 11, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"There are clear signs that the US is headed for an economic contraction this year. The New York Fed's Weekly Economic Index plunged to -8.89% on March 21st, compared to its -4.01% low from February 28th, 2009. Jim Stock expands on reasons for the fall: \"Today\u2019s decline is driven by\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":7522,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/04\/21\/richard-koo-quantitative-and-qualitative-easing\/","url_meta":{"origin":6215,"position":3},"title":"Richard Koo: Quantitative and Qualitative Easing","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"April 21, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Richard Koo in his latest report makes that the point that central banks in the US and UK have not cured their economies of deflationary pressures, they have merely kicked the can down the road: Central bank officials in the US and the UK claim quantitative easing has been a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":5429,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/09\/11\/harry-s-dent-why-the-fed-will-fail\/","url_meta":{"origin":6215,"position":4},"title":"Harry S Dent: Why the Fed will fail","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 11, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"Harry Dent is always entertaining to listen to, but is he right about the link between demographics and inflation? There is simply no way the Fed can win the battle it's currently waging against deflation, because there are 76 million Baby Boomers who increasingly want to save, not spend. Old\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":3275,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/01\/11\/greg-mankiws-blog-the-liquidity-trap-may-soon-be-over\/","url_meta":{"origin":6215,"position":5},"title":"Greg Mankiw’s Blog: The Liquidity Trap may soon be over","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"January 11, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"About a decade ago..... I estimated the following simple formula for setting the federal funds rate: Federal funds rate = 8.5 + 1.4 Core inflation - Unemployment ....Eddy Elfenbein has recently replotted this equation. Here it is: via Greg Mankiw's Blog: The Liquidity Trap may soon be over.","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6215","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6215"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6215\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6215"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6215"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6215"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}