{"id":62076,"date":"2025-06-28T03:00:08","date_gmt":"2025-06-28T03:00:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=62076"},"modified":"2025-06-28T04:37:09","modified_gmt":"2025-06-28T04:37:09","slug":"asx-market-leading-indicators-6","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/06\/28\/asx-market-leading-indicators-6\/","title":{"rendered":"ASX Market Leading Indicators"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\"Bull-Bear<\/div>\n
\"Stock<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

The gauge on the left indicates bull or bear market status, while the one on the right reflects stock market drawdown risk.<\/p>\n

Bull\/Bear Market<\/h2>\n

The ASX Bull-Bear Market indicator remains at 64%, reflecting a mild bull market. Four of six indicators from Australia and China signal risk-on, with a combined weighting of 60% in the ASX Bull-Bear Index. The US Bull-Bear Index makes up the remaining 40%.<\/p>\n

\"ASX<\/p>\n

The ASX 200 Financials Index (XFJ) is consolidating in bull market territory, above support at 9250.<\/p>\n

\"ASX<\/p>\n

However, the ASX 200 (XJO) continues to decline against its gold benchmark in Australian Dollars.<\/p>\n

\"Ratio<\/p>\n

Stock Pricing<\/h2>\n

ASX stock pricing eased slightly to 86.04 percent, from last week’s high of 86.23, and a low of 67.85 eleven weeks ago. Stock pricing remains extreme.<\/p>\n

\"ASX<\/p>\n

We use z-scores to measure each indicator’s current position relative to its history, with the result expressed in standard deviations from the mean. We then calculate an average for the five readings and convert that to a percentile. The higher that stock market pricing is relative to its historical mean, the greater the risk of a sharp drawdown.<\/div>\n

Conclusion<\/h2>\n

The ASX signals a mild bull market, but extreme valuations increase the risk of a significant drawdown.<\/p>\n

Acknowledgments<\/h4>\n