{"id":62072,"date":"2025-06-27T07:15:40","date_gmt":"2025-06-27T07:15:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=62072"},"modified":"2025-06-27T07:15:40","modified_gmt":"2025-06-27T07:15:40","slug":"sp-500-breakout-but-no-buy-signal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/06\/27\/sp-500-breakout-but-no-buy-signal\/","title":{"rendered":"S&#038;P 500 breakout but no buy signal"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4>Summary<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq reached new highs, but the Dow has not yet confirmed the breakout<\/li>\n<li>Liquidity is strong, and long-term Treasury yields are softening<\/li>\n<li>But the Conference Board Leading Economic Index warns of a recession<\/li>\n<li>The dollar keeps falling, and demand for gold remains strong, flagging high levels of uncertainty<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 broke resistance at 6100 to reach a new high. Expect retracement to test the new support level, but respect will likely signal a fresh advance.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-26-spx.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) has also reached a new high.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-26-qqq.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Invesco Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ)\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lags and has not yet confirmed the new breakout.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-26-dow.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Dow Jones Industrial Average\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The broad Dow Jones US Index (DJUS) still lags the DJ World-x-US Index (W2DOW).<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-26-djus-w2.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"DJ US Index ($DJUS) &amp; DJ World ex-US ($W2DOW)\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Financial Markets<\/h2>\n<p>The Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index declined to -0.51 on June 20, signaling improving financial conditions.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-26-nfci.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>10-year Treasury yields declined to 4.25%, providing further support for stocks.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-26-tnx.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"10-Year Treasury Yield\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Economy<\/h2>\n<p>The Conference Board&#8217;s leading economic index (LEI) declined to 99.0% in May. Six-month growth in the LEI (blue) fell to an annualized -5.4%, below the -4.1% that triggers a recession signal (marked in red).<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-26-lei.png?resize=525%2C308&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Conference Board Leading Economic Index - Recession Signals\" width=\"525\" height=\"308\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The black line on the above chart indicates negative growth in more than 50% of the LEI components over the past six months, which confirms the recession signal.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-26-lei-components.png?resize=525%2C301&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Conference Board Leading Economic Index - Components\" width=\"525\" height=\"301\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Manufacturers&#8217; new orders, excluding defense and aircraft, are one of the few LEI components that did not decline over the past 6 months. However, they show a steep long-term downtrend when adjusted for inflation (PPI for capital goods).<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-26-mnfg-neworders-x-defense.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Manufacturing New Orders: Non-Defense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft\/PPI for Capital Equipment\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>New orders for consumer goods, adjusted by CPI, are also declining.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-26-mnfg-neworders-consumer.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Manufacturing New Orders: Consumer Goods\/CPI\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Dollar &amp; Gold<\/h2>\n<p>The dollar continues to weaken, with the US Dollar Index breaking support at 98 to confirm our target of 90.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-26-dxy.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Dollar Index\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Gold is consolidating between $3,200 and $3,400 per ounce. Declining Trend Index peaks warn of secondary selling pressure, and another test of support at $3,200 is likely. Respect of support would signal another test of resistance at $3,500.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-26-gold2.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Spot Gold\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Silver is consolidating in a narrow pennant at $36 per ounce. A retracement to test the new support level at $34 remains likely, but follow-through above $37 would signal another advance.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-26-silver.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Spot Silver\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>A breakout of the Dow Jones Industrial Average above 45K would signal another advance for stocks, but the Conference Board Leading Economic Index warns of a recession. Manufacturers&#8217; new orders for non-defense capital goods and consumer goods both display long-term weakness.<\/p>\n<p>10-year Treasury yields softened to 4.25%, and financial conditions are easing, supporting stock prices. However, a declining dollar and strong gold price continue to warn of uncertainty. We don&#8217;t see this as a buy opportunity for investors; extreme stock valuation levels continue to warn of elevated\u00a0risk of a significant drawdown.<\/p>\n<h4>Acknowledgments<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>Federal Reserve of St Louis: <a href=\" https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/\">FRED Data<\/a><\/li>\n<li>The Conference Board: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conference-board.org\/topics\/us-leading-indicators\">Leading Economic Index<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Summary The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq reached new highs, but the Dow has not yet confirmed the breakout Liquidity is strong, and long-term Treasury yields are softening But the Conference Board Leading Economic Index warns of a recession The dollar keeps falling, and demand for gold remains strong, flagging high levels of uncertainty The S&amp;P &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/06\/27\/sp-500-breakout-but-no-buy-signal\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;S&#038;P 500 breakout but no buy signal&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,3761,9,34,35],"tags":[69,6622,1073,1113,6619,3010,3204,3206],"class_list":["post-62072","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-gdp-and-activity","category-gold-precious-metals","category-us-canada-countries-regions","category-us-dollar-index","tag-10-year-treasury-yield","tag-chicago-fed-national-financial-conditions-index","tag-dollar-index","tag-dow-jones-industrial-average","tag-invesco-nasdaq-100-etf-qqq","tag-sp-500","tag-spot-gold","tag-spot-silver"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>S&amp;P 500 breakout but no buy signal - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"S&amp;P 500 breakout but no buy signal - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Summary The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq reached new highs, but the Dow has not yet confirmed the breakout Liquidity is strong, and long-term Treasury yields are softening But the Conference Board Leading Economic Index warns of a recession The dollar keeps falling, and demand for gold remains strong, flagging high levels of uncertainty The S&amp;P &hellip; 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He founded PVT Capital (AFSL number 546090), which provides income and growth strategies to wholesale clients. Colin also co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Patient Investor newsletter. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies macro trends in the global economy and then combines fundamental and technical analysis to evaluate opportunities in sectors that stand to benefit. 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He founded PVT Capital (AFSL number 546090), which provides income and growth strategies to wholesale clients. Colin also co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Patient Investor newsletter. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies macro trends in the global economy and then combines fundamental and technical analysis to evaluate opportunities in sectors that stand to benefit. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-g9a","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":61348,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/03\/11\/its-a-bear-market-3\/","url_meta":{"origin":62072,"position":0},"title":"It&#8217;s a bear market","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 11, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 fell 2.7%, the Nasdaq QQQ ETF plunged 3.9% and the Dow lost 890 points on Monday, signaling a bear market. The S&P 500 broke support at 5800 to signal a primary downtrend. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 41911, marginally breaking support at 42K. Follow-through below\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-10-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-10-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-10-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":61320,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/03\/05\/sp-and-dow-threaten-a-bear-market\/","url_meta":{"origin":62072,"position":1},"title":"S&#038;P and Dow threaten a bear market","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 5, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 is testing primary support at 5750, shown on the weekly chart below. A breach would signal a primary downtrend. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is similarly headed for a test of primary support at 42K. The Transportation Index is already in a primary downtrend signaled by breach\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;GDP and Activity&quot;","block_context":{"text":"GDP and Activity","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/gdp-and-activity\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-04-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-04-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-04-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":61334,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/03\/07\/loaded-for-bear\/","url_meta":{"origin":62072,"position":2},"title":"Loaded for bear","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 7, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Donald Trump's on-again-off-again trade war with Canada and Mexico has ramped up uncertainty, causing a violent swing to risk-off in financial markets. Canada is in no mood to back down. Foreign Minister Melanie Joly responded to the latest twist in the tariff saga: \"That's enough! Canadians have had enough. We\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-06-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-06-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-06-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":61354,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/03\/11\/bear-market-confirmed\/","url_meta":{"origin":62072,"position":3},"title":"Bear market confirmed","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 11, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 41,433 after marginally breaking primary support at 42,000 yesterday. This confirms a bear market in terms of Dow Theory. Confirmation comes after an earlier bear signal, breaching primary support on the Transportation Average below. The S&P 500 also signals a primary downtrend after\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Dow Jones Industrial Average","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-11-dow.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-11-dow.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-11-dow.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":58791,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/10\/29\/strong-liquidity-but-rising-uncertainty\/","url_meta":{"origin":62072,"position":4},"title":"Strong liquidity but rising uncertainty","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 29, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Bitcoin signals strong financial market liquidity, supporting the S&P 500 and Nasdaq uptrends. However, rising 10-year Treasury yields indicate concern over the sustainability of fiscal deficits, which has boosted demand for the safety of precious metals. Stocks The S&P 500 continues to test support at 5800, with lower Trend Index\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-28-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-28-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-28-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":56203,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/08\/02\/plunging-treasury-yields-lift-gold-but-stocks-fall\/","url_meta":{"origin":62072,"position":5},"title":"Plunging Treasury yields lift gold but stocks fall","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 2, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Ten-year Treasury yields broke support at 4.0%, plunging in anticipation of Fed rate cuts in September. Expect retracement to test resistance at 4.0% but respect is likely to confirm our medium-term target of 3.8%. Stocks Falling yields failed to lift stocks, with the S&P 500 testing support at 5400. Declining\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yield","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-01-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-01-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-01-tnx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62072","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=62072"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62072\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":62075,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62072\/revisions\/62075"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=62072"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=62072"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=62072"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}