{"id":62072,"date":"2025-06-27T07:15:40","date_gmt":"2025-06-27T07:15:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=62072"},"modified":"2025-06-27T07:15:40","modified_gmt":"2025-06-27T07:15:40","slug":"sp-500-breakout-but-no-buy-signal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/06\/27\/sp-500-breakout-but-no-buy-signal\/","title":{"rendered":"S&#038;P 500 breakout but no buy signal"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4>Summary<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq reached new highs, but the Dow has not yet confirmed the breakout<\/li>\n<li>Liquidity is strong, and long-term Treasury yields are softening<\/li>\n<li>But the Conference Board Leading Economic Index warns of a recession<\/li>\n<li>The dollar keeps falling, and demand for gold remains strong, flagging high levels of uncertainty<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 broke resistance at 6100 to reach a new high. Expect retracement to test the new support level, but respect will likely signal a fresh advance.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-26-spx.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) has also reached a new high.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-26-qqq.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Invesco Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ)\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lags and has not yet confirmed the new breakout.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-26-dow.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Dow Jones Industrial Average\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The broad Dow Jones US Index (DJUS) still lags the DJ World-x-US Index (W2DOW).<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-26-djus-w2.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"DJ US Index ($DJUS) &amp; DJ World ex-US ($W2DOW)\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Financial Markets<\/h2>\n<p>The Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index declined to -0.51 on June 20, signaling improving financial conditions.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-26-nfci.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>10-year Treasury yields declined to 4.25%, providing further support for stocks.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-26-tnx.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"10-Year Treasury Yield\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Economy<\/h2>\n<p>The Conference Board&#8217;s leading economic index (LEI) declined to 99.0% in May. Six-month growth in the LEI (blue) fell to an annualized -5.4%, below the -4.1% that triggers a recession signal (marked in red).<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-26-lei.png?resize=525%2C308&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Conference Board Leading Economic Index - Recession Signals\" width=\"525\" height=\"308\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The black line on the above chart indicates negative growth in more than 50% of the LEI components over the past six months, which confirms the recession signal.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-26-lei-components.png?resize=525%2C301&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Conference Board Leading Economic Index - Components\" width=\"525\" height=\"301\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Manufacturers&#8217; new orders, excluding defense and aircraft, are one of the few LEI components that did not decline over the past 6 months. However, they show a steep long-term downtrend when adjusted for inflation (PPI for capital goods).<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-26-mnfg-neworders-x-defense.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Manufacturing New Orders: Non-Defense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft\/PPI for Capital Equipment\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>New orders for consumer goods, adjusted by CPI, are also declining.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-26-mnfg-neworders-consumer.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Manufacturing New Orders: Consumer Goods\/CPI\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Dollar &amp; Gold<\/h2>\n<p>The dollar continues to weaken, with the US Dollar Index breaking support at 98 to confirm our target of 90.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-26-dxy.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Dollar Index\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Gold is consolidating between $3,200 and $3,400 per ounce. Declining Trend Index peaks warn of secondary selling pressure, and another test of support at $3,200 is likely. Respect of support would signal another test of resistance at $3,500.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-26-gold2.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Spot Gold\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Silver is consolidating in a narrow pennant at $36 per ounce. A retracement to test the new support level at $34 remains likely, but follow-through above $37 would signal another advance.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-26-silver.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Spot Silver\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>A breakout of the Dow Jones Industrial Average above 45K would signal another advance for stocks, but the Conference Board Leading Economic Index warns of a recession. Manufacturers&#8217; new orders for non-defense capital goods and consumer goods both display long-term weakness.<\/p>\n<p>10-year Treasury yields softened to 4.25%, and financial conditions are easing, supporting stock prices. However, a declining dollar and strong gold price continue to warn of uncertainty. We don&#8217;t see this as a buy opportunity for investors; extreme stock valuation levels continue to warn of elevated\u00a0risk of a significant drawdown.<\/p>\n<h4>Acknowledgments<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>Federal Reserve of St Louis: <a href=\" https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/\">FRED Data<\/a><\/li>\n<li>The Conference Board: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conference-board.org\/topics\/us-leading-indicators\">Leading Economic Index<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Summary The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq reached new highs, but the Dow has not yet confirmed the breakout Liquidity is strong, and long-term Treasury yields are softening But the Conference Board Leading Economic Index warns of a recession The dollar keeps falling, and demand for gold remains strong, flagging high levels of uncertainty The S&amp;P &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/06\/27\/sp-500-breakout-but-no-buy-signal\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;S&#038;P 500 breakout but no buy signal&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,3761,9,34,35],"tags":[69,6622,1073,1113,6619,3010,3204,3206],"class_list":["post-62072","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-gdp-and-activity","category-gold-precious-metals","category-us-canada-countries-regions","category-us-dollar-index","tag-10-year-treasury-yield","tag-chicago-fed-national-financial-conditions-index","tag-dollar-index","tag-dow-jones-industrial-average","tag-invesco-nasdaq-100-etf-qqq","tag-sp-500","tag-spot-gold","tag-spot-silver"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>S&amp;P 500 breakout but no buy signal - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"S&amp;P 500 breakout but no buy signal - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Summary The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq reached new highs, but the Dow has not yet confirmed the breakout Liquidity is strong, and long-term Treasury yields are softening But the Conference Board Leading Economic Index warns of a recession The dollar keeps falling, and demand for gold remains strong, flagging high levels of uncertainty The S&amp;P &hellip; 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-g9a","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":61348,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/03\/11\/its-a-bear-market-3\/","url_meta":{"origin":62072,"position":0},"title":"It&#8217;s a bear market","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 11, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 fell 2.7%, the Nasdaq QQQ ETF plunged 3.9% and the Dow lost 890 points on Monday, signaling a bear market. The S&P 500 broke support at 5800 to signal a primary downtrend. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 41911, marginally breaking support at 42K. Follow-through below\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-10-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-10-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-10-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":61320,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/03\/05\/sp-and-dow-threaten-a-bear-market\/","url_meta":{"origin":62072,"position":1},"title":"S&#038;P and Dow threaten a bear market","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 5, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 is testing primary support at 5750, shown on the weekly chart below. A breach would signal a primary downtrend. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is similarly headed for a test of primary support at 42K. The Transportation Index is already in a primary downtrend signaled by breach\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;GDP and Activity&quot;","block_context":{"text":"GDP and Activity","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/gdp-and-activity\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-04-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-04-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-04-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":61334,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/03\/07\/loaded-for-bear\/","url_meta":{"origin":62072,"position":2},"title":"Loaded for bear","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 7, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Donald Trump's on-again-off-again trade war with Canada and Mexico has ramped up uncertainty, causing a violent swing to risk-off in financial markets. Canada is in no mood to back down. Foreign Minister Melanie Joly responded to the latest twist in the tariff saga: \"That's enough! Canadians have had enough. We\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-06-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-06-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-06-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":61354,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/03\/11\/bear-market-confirmed\/","url_meta":{"origin":62072,"position":3},"title":"Bear market confirmed","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 11, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 41,433 after marginally breaking primary support at 42,000 yesterday. This confirms a bear market in terms of Dow Theory. Confirmation comes after an earlier bear signal, breaching primary support on the Transportation Average below. The S&P 500 also signals a primary downtrend after\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Dow Jones Industrial Average","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-11-dow.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-11-dow.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-11-dow.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":58791,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/10\/29\/strong-liquidity-but-rising-uncertainty\/","url_meta":{"origin":62072,"position":4},"title":"Strong liquidity but rising uncertainty","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 29, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Bitcoin signals strong financial market liquidity, supporting the S&P 500 and Nasdaq uptrends. However, rising 10-year Treasury yields indicate concern over the sustainability of fiscal deficits, which has boosted demand for the safety of precious metals. Stocks The S&P 500 continues to test support at 5800, with lower Trend Index\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-28-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-28-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-28-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":56203,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/08\/02\/plunging-treasury-yields-lift-gold-but-stocks-fall\/","url_meta":{"origin":62072,"position":5},"title":"Plunging Treasury yields lift gold but stocks fall","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 2, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Ten-year Treasury yields broke support at 4.0%, plunging in anticipation of Fed rate cuts in September. Expect retracement to test resistance at 4.0% but respect is likely to confirm our medium-term target of 3.8%. Stocks Falling yields failed to lift stocks, with the S&P 500 testing support at 5400. 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