{"id":62065,"date":"2025-06-25T11:01:53","date_gmt":"2025-06-25T11:01:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=62065"},"modified":"2025-06-25T11:01:53","modified_gmt":"2025-06-25T11:01:53","slug":"gold-the-dollar-and-a-big-hole-in-the-desert","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/06\/25\/gold-the-dollar-and-a-big-hole-in-the-desert\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold, the Dollar and a big hole in the desert"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4>Summary<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>Stocks rallied on news of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel<\/li>\n<li>But celebrations may be premature<\/li>\n<li>The dollar weakened, which is likely to boost demand for gold<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 rallied to test resistance at 6100. Breakout would signal a fresh advance, but declining Trend Index peaks warn of selling pressure.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-24-spx.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Uncertainty remains high.<\/p>\n<p>The White House was quick to claim victory after the US airstrike on Iranian nuclear enrichment facilities. But claims that the subsequent ceasefire is the start of a new era of peace in the Middle East will likely prove premature.<\/p>\n<p>A ceasefire is not a peace settlement. It&#8217;s a pause in hostilities that allows both parties to rearm and re-strategize.<\/p>\n<p>A precision strike is nothing more than a big hole in the desert, the effectiveness of which can only be determined by subsequent Iranian actions.<\/p>\n<p>The damage assessment reported by CNN is premature, but it does raise some interesting questions.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>The assessment, which has not been previously reported, was produced by the Defense Intelligence Agency, the Pentagon\u2019s intelligence arm. It is based on a battle damage assessment conducted by US Central Command in the aftermath of the US strikes, one of the sources said.<\/p>\n<p>The analysis of the damage to the sites and the impact of the strikes on Iran\u2019s nuclear ambitions is ongoing, and could change as more intelligence becomes available.<\/p>\n<p>&#8230;.Two of the people familiar with the assessment said Iran\u2019s stockpile of enriched uranium was not destroyed. One of the people said the centrifuges are largely \u201cintact.\u201d Another source said that the intelligence assessed enriched uranium was moved out of the sites prior to the US strikes. (CNN)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>If the stockpile of enriched uranium were moved or otherwise not destroyed, how would this affect Israel&#8217;s security?<\/p>\n<p>The only way to finish this is with boots on the ground. Neither Israel nor President Trump is likely to commit to that.<\/p>\n<p>In the Treasury market, 10-year yields declined to 4.3%, easing the pressure on stocks.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-24-tnx.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"10-Year Treasury Yield\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>However, the dollar continues to weaken, with the US Dollar Index testing support at 98. A breach would confirm our target of 90.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-24-dxy.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Dollar Index\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The chart below shows how Brent crude and the dollar moved contra-cyclically, with the dollar weakening when crude oil prices rose, and vice versa.<\/p>\n<p>However, that changed shortly before Russia&#8217;s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the dollar strengthened despite a spike in energy prices, diverging from past behavior as investors sought safety. The divergence continues, with the dollar weakening while crude oil prices are falling. The dollar&#8217;s role is under threat.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-24-brent-usdx.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Brent Crude &amp; USD Index for Advanced Economies\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Investors globally appear to be gradually reducing their exposure to dollar-denominated assets, driving the greenback down to its lowest level against a basket of major currencies in three and a half years&#8230;.<\/p>\n<p>According to Bank of America&#8217;s FX strategy team, European &#8220;real money&#8221; investors &#8211; institutions like pension funds and insurance companies &#8211; are the main drivers of the dollar&#8217;s selloff in the second quarter, slashing their dollar positioning to the lowest since 2022 in a matter of weeks.<\/p>\n<p>But the story might not be so straightforward&#8230;. research shows that most of the dollar&#8217;s average daily declines in the last few months have come in Asian trading hours, suggesting Asian holders of U.S. bonds may also be increasing their dollar hedges. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/markets\/currencies\/whos-selling-breaking-down-dollars-breakdown-mcgeever-2025-06-23\/\">Reuters<\/a>)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Demand for gold remains strong as the dollar weakens, with the metal finding support at $3,300 per ounce. Respect of this level would signal another test of resistance at $3,400.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-24-gold.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Spot Gold\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>Stocks have rallied, but uncertainty in the Middle East remains high.<\/p>\n<p>Long-term Treasury yields have softened, but the dollar continues to weaken, reflecting uncertainty over the US role in the global monetary system.<\/p>\n<p>Private investors have replaced central banks as major investors in US Treasuries. They are far more price sensitive, and both European and Asian investors are increasingly hedging their dollar positions, expecting dollar weakness.<\/p>\n<p>A weakening dollar is expected to boost demand for gold.<\/p>\n<h4>Acknowledgments<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>CNN: <a href=\"https:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/2025\/06\/24\/politics\/intel-assessment-us-strikes-iran-nuclear-sites\">Early US intel assessment suggests strikes on Iran did not destroy nuclear sites<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Federal Reserve of St Louis: <a href=\" https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/\">FRED Data<\/a><\/li>\n<li>CNBC: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/06\/24\/israel-iran-ceasefire-live-updates-trump.html\">US strikes failed to destroy &#8216;core pieces&#8217; of Tehran&#8217;s nuclear program, intel report says<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Reuters: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/markets\/currencies\/whos-selling-breaking-down-dollars-breakdown-mcgeever-2025-06-23\/\">Who&#8217;s selling? Breaking down the dollar&#8217;s breakdown<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Summary Stocks rallied on news of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel But celebrations may be premature The dollar weakened, which is likely to boost demand for gold The S&amp;P 500 rallied to test resistance at 6100. Breakout would signal a fresh advance, but declining Trend Index peaks warn of selling pressure. Uncertainty remains high. &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/06\/25\/gold-the-dollar-and-a-big-hole-in-the-desert\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Gold, the Dollar and a big hole in the desert&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[44,6,9,34,35],"tags":[69,495,1073,1578,1897,3010],"class_list":["post-62065","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-crude-oil-natural-gas","category-fixed-income","category-gold-precious-metals","category-us-canada-countries-regions","category-us-dollar-index","tag-10-year-treasury-yield","tag-brent-crude","tag-dollar-index","tag-gold-2","tag-iran","tag-sp-500"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Gold, the Dollar and a big hole in the desert - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Gold, the Dollar and a big hole in the desert - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Summary Stocks rallied on news of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel But celebrations may be premature The dollar weakened, which is likely to boost demand for gold The S&amp;P 500 rallied to test resistance at 6100. Breakout would signal a fresh advance, but declining Trend Index peaks warn of selling pressure. 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Breakout would signal a fresh advance, but declining Trend Index peaks warn of selling pressure. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-g93","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":64042,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/04\/08\/ceasefire-but-no-long-term-peace-in-sight\/","url_meta":{"origin":62065,"position":0},"title":"Ceasefire But No Long-term Peace in Sight","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 8, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points President Trump announced he had agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran. Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi confirmed that Iran will allow safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz for two weeks. Brent crude futures (Jun'26) plunged to $93.86 per barrel. Gold climbed to $4,800 per ounce\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Truth Social Post","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-04-07-trump.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-04-07-trump.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-04-07-trump.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":64061,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/04\/09\/ceasefire-falls-apart\/","url_meta":{"origin":62065,"position":1},"title":"Ceasefire Falls Apart","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 9, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points Israel stepped up airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon. Iran's lead negotiator says a bilateral ceasefire is unreasonable in such a situation. Iran attacked Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline, which bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, just hours after the ceasefire \u200cwas agreed. The United Arab Emirates carried out air\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"UAE Air Strike on Iran","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-04-08-uae.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":56471,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/08\/08\/sp-500-correction-but-weak-dollar-drives-gold-bulls\/","url_meta":{"origin":62065,"position":2},"title":"S&#038;P 500 correction but weak Dollar lifts gold","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 8, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Liquidity in financial markets is slowly contracting, increasing downward pressure on stock prices. The flight to safety from stocks is expected to lower long-term Treasury yields, boosting demand for gold. Financial Markets Bitcoin recovered above resistance at $56K but remains in a down-trend, warning of contracting liquidity in financial markets.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Bitcoin","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-07-btc.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-07-btc.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-07-btc.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":48009,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/02\/02\/lt-treasury-yields-plunge-as-stocks-rally\/","url_meta":{"origin":62065,"position":3},"title":"LT Treasury yields plunge as stocks rally","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 2, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The yield on 10-year Treasuries fell sharply, testing support at 3.8%. A Trend Index peak below zero warns of further weakness. Breach of support would offer a target of 3.5%. Falling yields dented demand for the greenback. Dollar Index breach of support at 103 would suggest another test of 100.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yield","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-02-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-02-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-02-tnx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":56661,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/08\/13\/gold-threatens-breakout-as-stock-pause-ahead-of-cpi-report\/","url_meta":{"origin":62065,"position":4},"title":"Gold threatens breakout as stocks pause ahead of CPI report","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 13, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The rally in stocks paused ahead of tomorrow's CPI update. However, gold threatens another breakout, boosted by low Treasury yields and a weakening Dollar. Stocks The S&P 500 stalled below resistance at 5400. The Trend Index peak below zero warns of strong selling pressure, and another test of support at\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-12-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-12-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-12-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":63959,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/03\/26\/why-crude-prices-are-hurting-gold\/","url_meta":{"origin":62065,"position":5},"title":"Why Crude Prices are Hurting Gold","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 26, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points Iran rejects the US ceasefire proposal and makes counterdemands that are unlikely to be accepted. Brent crude futures (May'26) increased to $104.26 per barrel. Gold continues to test support at $4,400 per ounce. High crude prices are driving gold lower, reversing the typical relationship where gold and oil\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Brent Crude Futures (ICE May'26)","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-25-brent2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-25-brent2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-25-brent2.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62065","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=62065"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62065\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":62066,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62065\/revisions\/62066"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=62065"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=62065"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=62065"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}