{"id":62029,"date":"2025-06-21T04:31:45","date_gmt":"2025-06-21T04:31:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=62029"},"modified":"2025-06-21T04:31:45","modified_gmt":"2025-06-21T04:31:45","slug":"us-market-leading-indicators-5","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/06\/21\/us-market-leading-indicators-5\/","title":{"rendered":"US Market Leading Indicators"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\"Bull\/Bear<\/div>\n
\"Stock<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

The gauge on the left indicates bull or bear market status, while the right reflects stock market drawdown risk.<\/p>\n

Bull\/Bear Market<\/h2>\n

Our Bull\/Bear Market indicator remains at 60%, with two of five leading indicators signaling risk-off:<\/p>\n

\"Bull-Bear<\/p>\n

The unemployment rate remains at a low 4.2% in May, but weekly continued claims climbed to 1.945 million on June 7, warning that the labor market is deteriorating.<\/p>\n

\"Continued<\/p>\n

However, monetary conditions are easing. The Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index declined to -0.52 on June 13, signaling improved financial conditions.<\/p>\n

\"Chicago<\/p>\n

Stock Pricing<\/h2>\n

Stock pricing eased slightly to 96.30, compared to a low of 95.04 nine weeks ago and a high of 97.79 percent in February. The extreme reading warns that stocks are at risk of a significant drawdown.<\/p>\n

\"Stock<\/p>\n

We use z-scores to measure each indicator’s current position relative to its history, with the result expressed in standard deviations from the mean. We then calculate an average for the five readings and convert that to a percentile. The higher that stock market pricing is relative to its historical mean, the greater the risk of a sharp drawdown.<\/div>\n

Conclusion<\/h2>\n

We are in the early stages of a bear market, with the bull-bear indicator at 60%. Stock pricing is extreme, indicating risk of a significant drawdown.<\/p>\n

Acknowledgments<\/h4>\n