{"id":61986,"date":"2025-06-17T07:43:50","date_gmt":"2025-06-17T07:43:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=61986"},"modified":"2025-06-17T08:09:53","modified_gmt":"2025-06-17T08:09:53","slug":"stocks-rebound-and-gold-dips-for-now","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/06\/17\/stocks-rebound-and-gold-dips-for-now\/","title":{"rendered":"Stocks rebound and gold dips&#8230;.for now"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4>Summary<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>Iran proposes a ceasefire, sending stocks higher while gold dips<\/li>\n<li>The attacks continue, with uncertainty high<\/li>\n<li>But short-term volatility is unlikely to affect long-term secular trends<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<p>The Israel-Iran conflict entered its fifth day on Tuesday, with an Israel Defence Force spokesman claiming the IDF had achieved air dominance over Tehran. Uncontested air sorties continue to attack military targets as well as the state broadcaster.<\/p>\n<p>So far, attacks by the IDF have largely avoided oil infrastructure. Still, Israeli drone attacks set off a large fire at the Shahran oil depot in northern Tehran, and another at the offshore South Pars gasfield, the source of two-thirds of Iranian gas production. Meanwhile, Iran struck an oil refinery in Haifa. A spillover into strikes on oil facilities would mark a significant escalation, threatening to draw in other states reliant on oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n<p>Iran&#8217;s biggest uranium enrichment plant at Natanz has been badly damaged, but the enrichment site at Fordow, built under a mountain, is largely untouched. The IDF&#8217;s capability to eliminate the second site is questionable.<\/p>\n<p>The Iranian proposal for a ceasefire, in return for flexibility in nuclear negotiations, allayed market fears. However, President Trump spooked markets when he cut short his visit to the G7 and called for the US national security council to assemble on his return.<\/p>\n<p>One commentator observed: &#8220;You don&#8217;t convene the NSC to announce a peace proposal.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Stock market futures dropped in after-hours trading, while gold found support.<\/p>\n<p>Before the close on Monday, the S&amp;P 500 recovered above 6000, but short daily candles warn of hesitancy.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-16-spx.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average displays similar uncertainty. Reversal below 41.5K would warn of another correction.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-16-dow.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Dow Jones Industrial Average\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Financial Markets<\/h2>\n<p>The Fed continued its QT program in May, shrinking assets on its balance sheet by $36 billion.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-16-fedassets.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Fed Total Assets\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>However, on the liability side, the Treasury General Account declined by $129 billion, significantly boosting overall market liquidity in May.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-16-tga.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Fed Liabilities: Treasury General Account (TGA)\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Commercial bank reserves climbed to $3.407 trillion on June 11, reflecting the surge in liquidity.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-16-bankreserves.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Commercial Bank Reserves at the Fed\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Treasury Markets<\/h2>\n<p>10-year Treasury yields are headed for another test of 4.5% as the probability of another Fed rate cut fades. Markets are not expecting a rate cut at Wednesday&#8217;s FOMC announcement.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-16-tnx.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"10-Year Treasury Yield\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The fiscal deficit for the year to May climbed to $1.365 trillion, up from $1.202 trillion in the corresponding eight months of the previous year. The projected deficit for the financial year is $1.88 trillion.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-16-deficit-ytd.png?resize=525%2C336&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Federal Deficit % of GDP &amp; Nominal GDP Growth Rate\" width=\"525\" height=\"336\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Dollar &amp; Gold<\/h2>\n<p>The US Dollar Index continues to test support at 98. The recent Trend Index peak below zero warns of strong selling pressure, and follow-through below yesterday&#8217;s low would confirm our target of 90.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-16-dxy.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Dollar Index\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Gold retreated below support at $3,400 per ounce as traders took profits. A breach of $3,300 would warn of another test of $3,150, but respect is as likely to signal another test of $3,500.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-16-gold2.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Spot Gold\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Silver held firm above $36 per ounce, suggesting a continuation of its recent uptrend.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-16-silver2.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Spot Silver\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>The Israel-Iran conflict is unlikely to escalate unless Iran attempts to close the Strait of Hormuz, threatening global oil supplies. We expect short-term volatility but little effect on the long-term secular trends in global financial markets.<\/p>\n<p>The status of US Treasuries as the global reserve asset is fading. Rising fiscal deficits and debt levels have triggered a secular bear market in bonds and the dollar. Central banks are increasingly replacing fiat currency reserves with gold as the primary global reserve asset. We expect the trend to continue until gold reaches 60% to 70% of total reserves, the norm during the Bretton Woods era of gold convertibility during the 1950s and 60s.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-12-global-reserves.png?resize=525%2C359&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Global Reserves\" width=\"525\" height=\"359\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The dollar is in a strong downtrend due to capital outflows from US financial markets. However, long-term Treasury yields remain range-bound. Speculation on further Fed rate cuts is offsetting pressure from capital outflows. Financial markets are pricing in two rate cuts by the end of the year, but the Fed is likely to stand firm for as long as employment numbers remain strong.<\/p>\n<p>Stocks face headwinds from three sources: lower revenue growth from a slowing economy, narrower margins due to import tariffs, and higher interest rates. Widening fiscal deficits, precarious public debt levels, and higher inflation all increase the interest premium demanded for long-term investments.<\/p>\n<p>The Fed can always suppress long-term interest rates to support the US Treasury. However, this would raise inflation, weaken the dollar, and accelerate the growing demand for gold.<\/p>\n<h4>Acknowledgments<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>Federal Reserve of St Louis: <a href=\" https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/\">FRED Data<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Bureau of the Fiscal Service: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fiscal.treasury.gov\/reports-statements\/mts\/current.html\">May 2025 Treasury Statement<\/a><\/li>\n<li>University of Michigan: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.sca.isr.umich.edu\/charts.html\">Survey of Consumers<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Al Jazeera: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/video\/newsfeed\/2025\/6\/15\/huge-oil-depot-fire-rages-in-tehran-after-israeli-strike\">Huge oil depot fire rages in Tehran after Israeli strike<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Summary Iran proposes a ceasefire, sending stocks higher while gold dips The attacks continue, with uncertainty high But short-term volatility is unlikely to affect long-term secular trends The Israel-Iran conflict entered its fifth day on Tuesday, with an Israel Defence Force spokesman claiming the IDF had achieved air dominance over Tehran. Uncontested air sorties continue &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/06\/17\/stocks-rebound-and-gold-dips-for-now\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Stocks rebound and gold dips&#8230;.for now&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,9,34,35],"tags":[69,6273,1073,1113,1355,3010,3204,3206,5805],"class_list":["post-61986","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-gold-precious-metals","category-us-canada-countries-regions","category-us-dollar-index","tag-10-year-treasury-yield","tag-commercial-bank-reserves-at-the-fed","tag-dollar-index","tag-dow-jones-industrial-average","tag-fed-total-assets","tag-sp-500","tag-spot-gold","tag-spot-silver","tag-treasury-general-account-tga"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Stocks rebound and gold dips....for now - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Stocks rebound and gold dips....for now - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Summary Iran proposes a ceasefire, sending stocks higher while gold dips The attacks continue, with uncertainty high But short-term volatility is unlikely to affect long-term secular trends The Israel-Iran conflict entered its fifth day on Tuesday, with an Israel Defence Force spokesman claiming the IDF had achieved air dominance over Tehran. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-g7M","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":58057,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/10\/03\/reaction-to-iran-israel-tensions-still-muted\/","url_meta":{"origin":61986,"position":0},"title":"Reaction to Iran-Israel tensions still muted","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 3, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Stocks are retracing to test support, but financial market conditions remain accommodative, and another large-cap rally is likely. Treasuries, Gold, and the Dollar are all likely to rise as tensions escalate in the Middle East. Stocks The S&P 500 continues to test support between 5670 and 5700, but Trend Index\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Iran Attacks Israel","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-02-israel-598x491.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-02-israel-598x491.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-02-israel-598x491.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":56661,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/08\/13\/gold-threatens-breakout-as-stock-pause-ahead-of-cpi-report\/","url_meta":{"origin":61986,"position":1},"title":"Gold threatens breakout as stocks pause ahead of CPI report","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 13, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The rally in stocks paused ahead of tomorrow's CPI update. However, gold threatens another breakout, boosted by low Treasury yields and a weakening Dollar. Stocks The S&P 500 stalled below resistance at 5400. The Trend Index peak below zero warns of strong selling pressure, and another test of support at\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-12-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-12-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-12-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":51074,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/04\/14\/iran-attacks-israel\/","url_meta":{"origin":61986,"position":2},"title":"Iran attacks Israel","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 14, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Markets are overshadowed by news that Iran directly attacked Israel in retaliation for the bombing of its embassy in Damascus which killed two high-ranking Iranian generals. This is a significant escalation in Iran's on-going proxy war against Israel. Russia and its allies are emboldened by the US failure to support\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Middle East&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Middle East","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/middle-east\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Iran","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-04-14-iran.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-04-14-iran.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-04-14-iran.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":63987,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/04\/01\/april-fools-day\/","url_meta":{"origin":61986,"position":3},"title":"April Fools Day","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 1, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points President Trump says, \"We'll be leaving very soon.\" Crude oil futures plunged to test support at $100 per barrel. The S&P 500 jumped 2.9%, testing resistance at 6550. Gold broke resistance at $4,600 per ounce. Crude oil prices plunged, and stocks and gold rallied on President Trump's hint\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-31-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-31-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-31-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":56170,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/08\/01\/feds-powell-were-getting-closer\/","url_meta":{"origin":61986,"position":4},"title":"Fed&#8217;s Powell: We&#8217;re getting closer","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 1, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Fed Chair Jerome Powell, in response to a question as to why the FOMC did not cut rates at the this week's meeting, responded: \"We are getting closer to the point at which we have sufficient confidence (to cut rates) but are not quite there yet.\" Powell first described how\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yield","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-07-31-10y.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-07-31-10y.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-07-31-10y.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":51301,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/04\/18\/hope-for-the-best-prepare-for-the-worst\/","url_meta":{"origin":61986,"position":5},"title":"Hope for the best, prepare for the worst","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 18, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Prospects of an Israeli strike against Iran are increasing. The Hill reports: United Kingdom Foreign Secretary David Cameron said Wednesday that Israel has decided to respond to the attacks Iran launched against Israel over the weekend.... Cameron told reporters he traveled to Israel to reiterate the U.K.\u2019s support for Israel\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Bitcoin (BTC)","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-04-17-btc.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-04-17-btc.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-04-17-btc.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61986","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=61986"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61986\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":61992,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61986\/revisions\/61992"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=61986"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=61986"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=61986"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}