{"id":61963,"date":"2025-06-14T05:16:43","date_gmt":"2025-06-14T05:16:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=61963"},"modified":"2025-06-14T05:16:43","modified_gmt":"2025-06-14T05:16:43","slug":"us-market-leading-indicators-4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/06\/14\/us-market-leading-indicators-4\/","title":{"rendered":"US Market Leading Indicators"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\"Bull\/Bear<\/div>\n
\"Stock<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

The gauge on the left indicates bull or bear market status, while the right reflects stock market drawdown risk.<\/p>\n

Bull\/Bear Market<\/h2>\n

Our Bull\/Bear Market indicator is at 60%, with two of five leading indicators signaling risk-off:<\/p>\n

\"Bull-Bear<\/p>\n

The University of Michigan index of current economic conditions improved to 67.6 in June, but remains deep in recession territory (below 100).<\/p>\n

\"University<\/p>\n

Stock Pricing<\/h2>\n

Stock pricing eased slightly to 96.33, compared to a low of 95.04 eight weeks ago and a high of 97.79 percent in February. The extreme reading warns that stocks are at risk of a significant drawdown.<\/p>\n

\"Stock<\/p>\n

We use z-scores to measure each indicator’s current position relative to its history, with the result expressed in standard deviations from the mean. We then calculate an average for the five readings and convert that to a percentile. The higher that stock market pricing is relative to its historical mean, the greater the risk of a sharp drawdown.<\/div>\n

 <\/p>\n

Stock market capitalization declined to 2.60 times GDP in the first quarter of 2025. Warren Buffett’s favorite long-term valuation measure reflects an extreme reading compared to his fair value rule-of-thumb of 1.0 and a fifty-year average of 1.16.
\n\"Stock<\/p>\n

Conclusion<\/h2>\n

We are in the early stages of a bear market, with the bull-bear indicator at 60%. Stock pricing remains extreme, indicating risk of a significant drawdown.<\/p>\n

Acknowledgments<\/h4>\n