{"id":61955,"date":"2025-06-13T08:03:33","date_gmt":"2025-06-13T08:03:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=61955"},"modified":"2025-06-13T08:03:33","modified_gmt":"2025-06-13T08:03:33","slug":"dollar-warns-of-tipping-point","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/06\/13\/dollar-warns-of-tipping-point\/","title":{"rendered":"Dollar warns of tipping point"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4>Summary<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>The dollar is weakening due to capital outflows from the US<\/li>\n<li>Long-term Treasury yields are declining in anticipation of Fed rate cuts<\/li>\n<li>However, capital outflows are expected to lift long-term rates and slow economic growth in the years ahead<\/li>\n<li>The weaker dollar is expected to depress stock prices and boost demand for gold<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<p>The US Dollar Index broke support at 98, signaling another decline with a target of 90. Trend Index peaks below zero warn of strong selling pressure.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-12-dxy.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Dollar Index\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>A low CPI print boosted support for Treasuries, with the 10-year yield declining to 4.36%.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-12-tnx.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"10-Year Treasury Yield\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>However, the long-term chart below warns of a bond bear market. After more than three decades of capital inflows into US financial markets, international capital flows have reversed in anticipation of President Trump&#8217;s trade policies. Narrowing the trade deficit will likely slow the inflow of capital into the US, raising long-term interest rates and slowing economic growth.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-12-10y.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"10-Year Treasury Yield\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The sharp increase in federal debt, from 55% of GDP in 2008 to 114% today, limits policy options. Reducing the fiscal deficit from its current 6.5% to a more sustainable 3.0% would likely cause a similar contraction in economic growth, tipping the economy into recession.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-12-debt-gdp.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Federal Debt to Nominal GDP (%)\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The Fed is also limited in its monetary policy options because of inflationary pressures from Trump&#8217;s trade policy, if it were to cut rates, and the adverse effect on the fiscal budget if it allowed long-term interest rates to rise.<\/p>\n<p>The weakening dollar will likely accelerate the capital outflow from US financial markets, increasing the upward pressure on long-term interest rates and downward pressure on stocks. It is also expected to boost demand for gold as an alternative.<\/p>\n<p>Gold climbed to above $3,400 per ounce, signaling another test of resistance at $3,500. A breakout above $3,500 would strengthen our target of $4,000 by the end of the year.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-12-gold.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Spot Gold\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>According to the IMF, the percentage of gold in international reserves increased by a record 4.0% in 2024, with a similar decline in US Dollar holdings. However, official gold purchases are only half the picture.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-12-global-reserves.png?resize=525%2C359&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Global Reserves\" width=\"525\" height=\"359\" \/><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.thegoldobserver.com\/p\/secret-gold-purchases-by-chinese\">Jan Nieuwenhuijs<\/a> conducted extensive research, along with the World Gold Council, on unofficial gold purchases by China and Saudi Arabia. He estimates that this back-door gold accumulation amounts to 3,500 tonnes since 2010, in addition to the 5,500 tonnes of official purchases.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-12-cb-purchases.png?resize=525%2C338&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Central Bank Gold Purchases\" width=\"525\" height=\"338\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 is headed for a test of its previous high at 6100, but a weakening dollar disguises its true performance. When measured against gold, the index has declined more than 20% in real terms over the past 12 months.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-12-spx-gold.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>The weakening dollar warns of capital outflows from US financial markets. A narrowing of the trade deficit is expected to reverse the three-decade-long bull market in bonds, lifting long-term interest rates and reducing growth.<\/p>\n<p>The move is bearish for stocks in the long term, with expected higher interest rates and lower earnings growth. However, contracting growth will likely reduce interest rates next year as the Fed loosens monetary policy to stimulate growth. Both long and short-term scenarios are bearish for stocks.<\/p>\n<p>Gold will likely be boosted by a weakening dollar and increased central bank buying as US dollar reserves are replaced with bullion. A breakout above resistance at $3,500 per ounce would strengthen our target of $4,000 by the end of the year, but the long-term outlook remains bullish.<\/p>\n<h4>Acknowledgments<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>Federal Reserve of St Louis: <a href=\" https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/\">FRED Data<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Jan Nieuwenhuijs: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thegoldobserver.com\/p\/secret-gold-purchases-by-chinese\">Secret Gold Purchases by Chinese Central Bank Reach Mainstream Media<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Summary The dollar is weakening due to capital outflows from the US Long-term Treasury yields are declining in anticipation of Fed rate cuts However, capital outflows are expected to lift long-term rates and slow economic growth in the years ahead The weaker dollar is expected to depress stock prices and boost demand for gold The &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/06\/13\/dollar-warns-of-tipping-point\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Dollar warns of tipping point&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,45,46,34],"tags":[69,5575,1073,6896,4963,3010,3204],"class_list":["post-61955","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-debt-levels","category-deficit-spending-employment","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-10-year-treasury-yield","tag-central-bank-gold-purchases","tag-dollar-index","tag-federal-debt-to-nominal-gdp","tag-global-reserves","tag-sp-500","tag-spot-gold"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Dollar warns of tipping point - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Dollar warns of tipping point - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Summary The dollar is weakening due to capital outflows from the US Long-term Treasury yields are declining in anticipation of Fed rate cuts However, capital outflows are expected to lift long-term rates and slow economic growth in the years ahead The weaker dollar is expected to depress stock prices and boost demand for gold The &hellip; 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","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization","name":"The Patient Investor Pty Ltd","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/cropped-cropped-patience-bg-1-inverted-400x400-1.png?fit=250%2C250&ssl=1","contentUrl":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/cropped-cropped-patience-bg-1-inverted-400x400-1.png?fit=250%2C250&ssl=1","width":250,"height":250,"caption":"The Patient Investor Pty Ltd"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor"]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454","name":"Colin Twiggs","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Colin Twiggs"},"description":"Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-g7h","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":61556,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/04\/27\/a-bear-rally-but-capital-outflows-likely-to-continue\/","url_meta":{"origin":61955,"position":0},"title":"A bear rally, but capital outflows likely to continue","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 27, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Summary The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average have rallied but remain below their 50-week weighted MA, indicating a bear market 10-year Treasury yields eased slightly, but the declining dollar continues to warn of capital outflows from US financial markets Plunging consumer sentiment warns of recession Gold continues in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-04-25-spx-w.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-04-25-spx-w.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-04-25-spx-w.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":61922,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/06\/07\/stocks-lift-on-jobs-report-but-keep-your-eyes-on-the-dollar\/","url_meta":{"origin":61955,"position":1},"title":"Stocks lift on jobs report but keep your eyes on the dollar","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 7, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Summary A stronger-than-expected BLS labor report buoyed stocks The stronger jobs figures reduce the chance of further Fed rate cuts Speculators are covering positions in long-term bonds, causing yields to rise Higher long-term yields are, in turn, bearish for stocks The S&P 500 was buoyed by a stronger-than-expected labor report,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-06-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-06-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-06-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":24908,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/03\/31\/gold-and-the-treasury-yield\/","url_meta":{"origin":61955,"position":2},"title":"Gold and the Treasury yield","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 31, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Spot Gold is testing support at $1670\/ounce on the daily chart. Gold and the PIMCO 15+ Year US TIPS ETF (LTPZ) usually track fairly closely but diverged in July\/August 2020 when Gold broke $2000\/ounce. Since then the gap has narrowed but warns that Gold may still fall further if real\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":61503,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/04\/08\/trade-war-threat-to-markets\/","url_meta":{"origin":61955,"position":3},"title":"Trade war threatens markets","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 8, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Summary Rising 10-year Treasury yields warn of a capital outflow from Treasury markets Donald Trump's threat to levy further tariffs on China risks an all-out trade war The Chinese yuan has weakened against the dollar The bear market continues I will be traveling over the next few days, and my\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;US &amp; Canada&quot;","block_context":{"text":"US &amp; Canada","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/us-canada-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yield","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-04-08-10y.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-04-08-10y.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-04-08-10y.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":61687,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/05\/17\/the-elephant-in-the-room-3\/","url_meta":{"origin":61955,"position":4},"title":"The elephant in the room","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 17, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Summary The elephant in the room is $37 trillion of US fiscal debt Rising long-term interest rates reflect bond market concerns that the Fed will sacrifice price stability to support an unstable Treasury market A year ago, we wrote: The elephant in the room is Government debt which is growing\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"CBO Projections of Debt Held by the Public as a Percentage of GDP","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-16-cbo-debt-public.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-16-cbo-debt-public.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-16-cbo-debt-public.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-16-cbo-debt-public.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":35005,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/07\/02\/gold-silver-mixed-outlook\/","url_meta":{"origin":61955,"position":5},"title":"Gold &#038; Silver mixed outlook","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 2, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Silver broke primary support at $22 per ounce, signaling a primary down-trend. Industrial demand for Silver is much greater than with Gold, and is expected to contract if there is a global economic recession. Uncertainty over Gold is high at present, with the metal repeatedly testing support at $1800 per\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Gold &amp; Precious Metals&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Gold &amp; Precious Metals","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/gold-precious-metals\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Silver","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-07-01-silver.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-07-01-silver.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-07-01-silver.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-07-01-silver.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61955","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=61955"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61955\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":61956,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61955\/revisions\/61956"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=61955"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=61955"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=61955"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}