{"id":61926,"date":"2025-06-07T05:22:07","date_gmt":"2025-06-07T05:22:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=61926"},"modified":"2025-06-07T05:26:51","modified_gmt":"2025-06-07T05:26:51","slug":"us-market-leading-indicators-3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/06\/07\/us-market-leading-indicators-3\/","title":{"rendered":"US Market Leading Indicators"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\"Bull\/Bear<\/div>\n
\"Stock<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

The gauge on the left indicates bull or bear market status, while the right reflects stock market drawdown risk.<\/p>\n

Bull\/Bear Market<\/h2>\n

Our Bull\/Bear Market indicator remains at 60%, with two of five leading indicators signaling risk-off:<\/p>\n

\"Bull-Bear<\/p>\n

Employment in cyclical sectors\u2014manufacturing, construction, and transport and warehousing\u2014remains strong at 27.8 million, with no sign of the typical contraction that precedes a recession.<\/p>\n

\"Employment<\/p>\n

However, the 12-month average of heavy-weight trucks declined to 39.0K units in May, just a smidgen from a 38.7K bear signal.<\/p>\n

\"Heavy<\/p>\n

Stock Pricing<\/h2>\n

Stock pricing increased to 96.70, compared to 95.04 seven weeks ago and a high of 97.79 percent in February. The extreme reading warns that stocks are at risk of a significant drawdown.<\/p>\n

\"Stock<\/p>\n

We use z-scores to measure each indicator’s current position relative to its history, with the result expressed in standard deviations from the mean. We then calculate an average for the five readings and convert that to a percentile. The higher that stock market pricing is relative to its historical mean, the greater the risk of a sharp drawdown.<\/div>\n

Conclusion<\/h2>\n

We remain in the early stages of a bear market, with the bull-bear indicator at 60%. Stock pricing is extreme, indicating risk of a significant drawdown.<\/p>\n

Acknowledgments<\/h4>\n