{"id":61922,"date":"2025-06-07T03:29:55","date_gmt":"2025-06-07T03:29:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=61922"},"modified":"2025-06-07T05:32:09","modified_gmt":"2025-06-07T05:32:09","slug":"stocks-lift-on-jobs-report-but-keep-your-eyes-on-the-dollar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/06\/07\/stocks-lift-on-jobs-report-but-keep-your-eyes-on-the-dollar\/","title":{"rendered":"Stocks lift on jobs report but keep your eyes on the dollar"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4>Summary<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>A stronger-than-expected BLS labor report buoyed stocks<\/li>\n<li>The stronger jobs figures reduce the chance of further Fed rate cuts<\/li>\n<li>Speculators are covering positions in long-term bonds, causing yields to rise<\/li>\n<li>Higher long-term yields are, in turn, bearish for stocks<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 was buoyed by a stronger-than-expected labor report, with little sign of the economy slowing from President Trump&#8217;s flip-flop on tariffs. A breakout above strong resistance between 6000 and 6100 would signal a fresh advance, but we advise caution as it could be a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/technical\/point_figure_bull_bear_traps.php#bull_traps\">bull trap<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-06-spx.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Financial Markets<\/h2>\n<p>Financial market liquidity has improved, with the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index declining to a revised -0.476 on May 30.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-06-nfci.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>A sharp fall in the Treasury General Account (TGA) at the Fed injected more than $200 billion into financial markets in recent weeks, but that is not sustainable for long.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-06-tga.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Fed Liabilities: Treasury General Account (TGA)\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>A declining spread on Moody&#8217;s Baa corporate bonds shows the beneficial effect on credit markets.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-06-baa.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Moody's Baa Corporate Bond Spreads\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Treasury Markets<\/h2>\n<p>Speculators anticipating a series of Fed rate cuts are covering positions in long-term Treasuries, lifting the yield to 4.5%. Follow-through above 4.5% would offer a short-term target of 4.8%, prompting further action by Treasury Secretary Bessent to keep a lid on long-term rates. However, he can only do so much without the Fed&#8217;s help.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-06-tnx.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"10-Year Treasury Yield\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Economy<\/h2>\n<p>Employment in cyclical sectors\u2014manufacturing, construction, and transport and warehousing\u2014remains strong at 27.8 million, with no sign of the typical contraction that precedes a recession.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-06-cyclical-jobs.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Employment in Cyclical Sectors: Manufacturing, Construction, and Transport &amp; Warehousing\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Unit sales of heavy-weight trucks are declining gradually rather than the steep fall that typically precedes a recession.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-06-heavy-trucks.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Heavy Truck Sales\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>However, declining real manufacturers&#8217; new orders for capital goods (excluding defense and aircraft) for April, adjusted by the producer price index (for capital goods), warn of a sharp fall in new capital investment.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-06-neworders-capital-x-defense-aircraft.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Manufacturing New Orders: Non-Defense Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft\/PPI for Capital Equipment\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Labor Market<\/h2>\n<p>Jobs grew by a better-than-expected 139 thousand in May. However, the figure is seasonally adjusted and likely subject to revision.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-06-jobs.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Employment Growth\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Continued claims increased to 1.9 million by May 24, but the unemployment rate remained 4.2% in May, well below our 5.0% warning level.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-06-cclaims-u3.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Continued Claims &amp; Unemployment\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Growth in aggregate hours worked slowed to an annualized rate of 1.0%, warning of a similar decline in GDP growth in the second quarter.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-06-hours.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Total Hours Worked\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Temporary jobs have contracted to 2.5 million, reinforcing the bearish sign from declining growth in hours worked.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-06-temp.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Temporary Employment\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The gap between job openings and unemployment has narrowed, indicating that the labor market is now in balance.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-06-jolts-u3.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Job Openings\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p>However, average hourly earnings continue to grow at close to 4.0%, signaling underlying inflationary pressures in the economy.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-06-wages.png?resize=525%2C372&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Average Hourly Earnings\" width=\"525\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Dollar &amp; Gold<\/h2>\n<p>The US Dollar Index continues to test long-term support at 100. Follow-through below 98 would offer a target of 90, warning of capital outflows and a strong bear signal for the bond market.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-06-dxy.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Dollar Index\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Gold is patiently testing resistance at $3,400 per ounce, waiting for a bear signal from the Dollar Index. A breakout would strengthen our target of $4,000 by the end of the year.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-06-gold.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Spot Gold\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Silver made a sharp breakout above resistance at $34 per ounce. We expect retracement to test the new support level. Respect will likely confirm the breakout, but, having been burned before, we remain wary of a bull trap.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-06-silver.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Spot Silver\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>The rise in stocks is likely short-lived as rising long-term interest rates will likely spoil the party. The Fed is unlikely to heed President Trump&#8217;s call for a 100 basis-point cut:<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Go for a full point, Rocket Fuel,&#8221; Trump said in a post on Truth Social, adding that the Fed could increase rates again if inflation reignited. (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/fed-seen-no-rush-cut-rates-us-job-market-cools-doesnt-crumble-2025-06-06\/\">Reuters<\/a>)<\/p>\n<p>The labor market remains in balance, and signs that the economy is slowing more likely reflect the impact of poor trade policy rather than too-high interest rates.<\/p>\n<p>All eyes should be on the dollar. A Dollar Index fall below 98 would warn of capital outflows\u2014a bear signal for bonds and stocks and a bull signal for gold.<\/p>\n<h4>Acknowledgments<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>Reuters: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/fed-seen-no-rush-cut-rates-us-job-market-cools-doesnt-crumble-2025-06-06\/\">Fed likely to leave rates unchanged as US job market cools but doesn&#8217;t crumble<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Federal Reserve of St Louis: <a href=\" https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/\">FRED Data<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Summary A stronger-than-expected BLS labor report buoyed stocks The stronger jobs figures reduce the chance of further Fed rate cuts Speculators are covering positions in long-term bonds, causing yields to rise Higher long-term yields are, in turn, bearish for stocks The S&amp;P 500 was buoyed by a stronger-than-expected labor report, with little sign of the &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/06\/07\/stocks-lift-on-jobs-report-but-keep-your-eyes-on-the-dollar\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Stocks lift on jobs report but keep your eyes on the dollar&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,46,6,3761,9,13,34,35],"tags":[69,6622,1073,6091,3010,3204,3206,4934],"class_list":["post-61922","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-deficit-spending-employment","category-fixed-income","category-gdp-and-activity","category-gold-precious-metals","category-inflation-economy","category-us-canada-countries-regions","category-us-dollar-index","tag-10-year-treasury-yield","tag-chicago-fed-national-financial-conditions-index","tag-dollar-index","tag-moodys-baa-corporate-bond-spreads","tag-sp-500","tag-spot-gold","tag-spot-silver","tag-tga-account"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Stocks lift on jobs report but keep your eyes on the dollar - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Stocks lift on jobs report but keep your eyes on the dollar - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Summary A stronger-than-expected BLS labor report buoyed stocks The stronger jobs figures reduce the chance of further Fed rate cuts Speculators are covering positions in long-term bonds, causing yields to rise Higher long-term yields are, in turn, bearish for stocks The S&amp;P 500 was buoyed by a stronger-than-expected labor report, with little sign of the &hellip; 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.\",\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\",\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor\",\"https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs\"],\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Stocks lift on jobs report but keep your eyes on the dollar - the patient investor","robots":{"index":"noindex","follow":"follow"},"og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Stocks lift on jobs report but keep your eyes on the dollar - the patient investor","og_description":"Summary A stronger-than-expected BLS labor report buoyed stocks The stronger jobs figures reduce the chance of further Fed rate cuts Speculators are covering positions in long-term bonds, causing yields to rise Higher long-term yields are, in turn, bearish for stocks The S&amp;P 500 was buoyed by a stronger-than-expected labor report, with little sign of the &hellip; Continue reading \"Stocks lift on jobs report but keep your eyes on the dollar\"","og_url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/06\/07\/stocks-lift-on-jobs-report-but-keep-your-eyes-on-the-dollar\/","og_site_name":"the patient investor","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810","article_author":"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","article_published_time":"2025-06-07T03:29:55+00:00","article_modified_time":"2025-06-07T05:32:09+00:00","og_image":[{"url":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-06-spx.png","type":"","width":"","height":""}],"author":"Colin Twiggs","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Colin Twiggs","Est. reading time":"7 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/06\/07\/stocks-lift-on-jobs-report-but-keep-your-eyes-on-the-dollar\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/06\/07\/stocks-lift-on-jobs-report-but-keep-your-eyes-on-the-dollar\/"},"author":{"name":"Colin Twiggs","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454"},"headline":"Stocks lift on jobs report but keep your eyes on the dollar","datePublished":"2025-06-07T03:29:55+00:00","dateModified":"2025-06-07T05:32:09+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/06\/07\/stocks-lift-on-jobs-report-but-keep-your-eyes-on-the-dollar\/"},"wordCount":647,"commentCount":0,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/06\/07\/stocks-lift-on-jobs-report-but-keep-your-eyes-on-the-dollar\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-06-spx.png","keywords":["10-Year Treasury Yield","Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index","Dollar Index","Moody's Baa Corporate Bond Spreads","S&amp;P 500","Spot Gold","Spot Silver","TGA Account"],"articleSection":["Banks &amp; 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","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization","name":"The Patient Investor Pty Ltd","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/cropped-cropped-patience-bg-1-inverted-400x400-1.png?fit=250%2C250&ssl=1","contentUrl":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/cropped-cropped-patience-bg-1-inverted-400x400-1.png?fit=250%2C250&ssl=1","width":250,"height":250,"caption":"The Patient Investor Pty Ltd"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor"]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454","name":"Colin Twiggs","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/29a4e13250381b203ea835108c2d5eee4947439713c271ae5ba60afb53194432?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Colin Twiggs"},"description":"Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-g6K","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":61592,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/05\/06\/dont-be-fooled-by-april-jobs-growth\/","url_meta":{"origin":61922,"position":0},"title":"Don&#8217;t be fooled by April jobs growth","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 6, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Summary The S&P 500 rally lacks momentum Financial markets warn of credit tightening April labor report is not as strong as it seems US manufacturing is slowing and prices are rising Gold is rallying as the dollar weakens A robust April jobs report boosted stocks on Friday, but enthusiasm soon\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-05-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-05-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-05-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":62212,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/08\/02\/weak-labor-report-hammers-stocks\/","url_meta":{"origin":61922,"position":1},"title":"Weak labor report hammers stocks","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 2, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points The S&P 500 and Dow fell sharply on the poor July jobs report Financial markets warn of easy credit conditions, which could lead to markets mispricing risk Real GDP growth is misleading due to the buildup of inventories in Q1, ahead of tariffs, and their subsequent rundown in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Employment Growth","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-04-jobs2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-04-jobs2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-04-jobs2.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":46249,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/12\/09\/booms-dont-die-of-their-own-accord-they-are-murdered\/","url_meta":{"origin":61922,"position":2},"title":"Booms don&#8217;t die of old age, they are murdered","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 9, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Ten-year Treasury yields rallied on a stronger than expected labor report. Stocks strengthened, with the S&P 500 equal-weighted index testing resistance at 6100. The chart below shows Chicago Fed Financial Conditions Index in the lead up to past recessions. Economic booms don't die of their own accord, they are murdered\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yield","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-12-09-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-12-09-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-12-09-tnx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":62088,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/07\/04\/stocks-surge-despite-the-big-beautiful-debt-bomb\/","url_meta":{"origin":61922,"position":3},"title":"Stocks surge despite Trump&#8217;s Big Beautiful Debt Bomb","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 4, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Summary The US economy added 147K jobs in June, causing a surge in the S&P 500 The solid jobs report also caused a jump in long-term Treasury yields as prospects fade for a Fed rate cut The dollar found support, with gold weakening as a result Congress passed President Trump's\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Employment Growth","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-07-03-jobs.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-07-03-jobs.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-07-03-jobs.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":62422,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/09\/11\/gold-is-the-primary-hedge-against-political-and-financial-instability\/","url_meta":{"origin":61922,"position":4},"title":"Gold is the primary hedge against political and financial instability","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 11, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points The S&P 500 and Dow stalled ahead of the August CPI release later today. The producer price index (PPI) declined in August, and a low CPI reading would remove the last potential obstacle to a Fed rate cut. President Trump claims the economy is booming, but reliable unemployment\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-10-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-10-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-10-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":59700,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/12\/07\/easy-monetary-conditions-fail-to-lift-stocks\/","url_meta":{"origin":61922,"position":5},"title":"Easy monetary conditions fail to lift stocks","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 7, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Stocks are advancing on a narrow front despite easy monetary conditions in financial markets. Treasury yields are falling, which should be bullish for precious metals. However, robust economic and labor market data will likely increase the Fed's reluctance to continue cutting rates. Stocks The S&P 500 edged higher, but the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-12-06-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-12-06-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-12-06-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61922","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=61922"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61922\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":61931,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61922\/revisions\/61931"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=61922"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=61922"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=61922"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}