{"id":61876,"date":"2025-05-31T05:32:45","date_gmt":"2025-05-31T05:32:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=61876"},"modified":"2025-05-31T06:04:28","modified_gmt":"2025-05-31T06:04:28","slug":"us-market-leading-indicators-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/05\/31\/us-market-leading-indicators-2\/","title":{"rendered":"US Market Leading Indicators"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\"Bull\/Bear<\/div>\n
\"Stock<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

The gauge on the left indicates bull or bear market status, while the right reflects stock market drawdown risk.<\/p>\n

Bull\/Bear Market<\/h2>\n

Our Bull\/Bear Market indicator remains at 60%, with two of five leading indicators signaling risk-off:<\/p>\n

\"Bull-Bear<\/p>\n

The National Financial Conditions Index from the Chicago Fed dipped to -0.606, signaling monetary easing.<\/p>\n

\"Chicago<\/p>\n

However, outside of the 2022 COVID pandemic, the University of Michigan index of current economic conditions is at the lowest recorded level since its inception in 1960.<\/p>\n

\"University<\/p>\n

Also, continued unemployment claims rose to 1.92 million on May 17, a 39% increase in the four-week moving average from its low in June 2022. However, the unemployment rate remains at 4.2% and does not warrant serious concern until it reaches 5.0%.<\/p>\n

\"Continued<\/p>\n

Stock Pricing<\/h2>\n

Stock pricing increased to 96.51, compared to 95.04 six weeks ago and a high of 97.79 percent in February. The extreme reading warns that stocks are at risk of a significant drawdown.<\/p>\n

\"Stock<\/p>\n

We use z-scores to measure each indicator’s current position relative to its history, with the result expressed in standard deviations from the mean. We then calculate an average for the five readings and convert that to a percentile. The higher that stock market pricing is relative to its historical mean, the greater the risk of a sharp drawdown.<\/div>\n

Conclusion<\/h2>\n

We remain in the early stages of a bear market, with the bull-bear indicator at 60%. Stock pricing is extreme, with elevated risk of a significant drawdown.<\/p>\n

Acknowledgments<\/h4>\n