{"id":6187,"date":"2012-11-16T17:27:46","date_gmt":"2012-11-16T22:27:46","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=6187"},"modified":"2012-11-16T17:27:46","modified_gmt":"2012-11-16T22:27:46","slug":"fed-monetary-policy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/11\/16\/fed-monetary-policy\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed monetary policy"},"content":{"rendered":"

I read this excerpt from a speech by Ben Bernanke<\/a> in September (courtesy of Cullen Roche<\/a>):<\/p>\n

The tools we have involve effecting financial asset prices. Those are the tools of monetary policy. There are a number of different channels. Mortgage rates, other interest rates, corporate bond rates. Also the prices of various assets. For example, the prices of homes. To the extent that the prices of homes begin to rise, consumers will feel wealthier, they\u2019ll begin to feel more disposed to spend. If home prices are rising they may feel more may be more willing to buy home because they think they\u2019ll make a better return on that purchase. So house prices is one vehicle. Stock prices \u2013 many people own stocks directly or indirectly. The issue here is whether improving asset prices will make people more willing to spend. One of the main concerns that firms have is that there is not enough demand\u2026 if people feel their financial position is better\u2026 they\u2019ll be more likely to spend, and that\u2019s going to provide the demand firms need in order to be willing to hire and to invest.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

It stopped me in my tracks. Here is why:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. The Fed Chairman avoids stating the obvious: there is only one aim of monetary policy: to increase or decrease the amount of debt in the economy. Their tools are designed to encourage people to borrow more — or occasionally less, when the results of their earlier policy materialize.<\/li>\n
  2. Raising prices to increase demand? Raising home prices is unlikely to clear inventories of unsold homes or stimulate the construction industry.<\/li>\n
  3. What Bernanke is referring to is known as the “wealth effect” — raising asset prices by lowering interest rates stimulates spending. The “wealth illusion” would be a more appropriate name.<\/li>\n
  4. Rising asset prices make people more willing to spend. He is 100% correct here. But he fails to mention the resulting asset bubble that follows. Low interest rates and rising prices feed speculation….. which lead to higher prices and more speculation….. which lead to a self-reinforcing spiral.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Economics is not a hard science like engineering or physics, where one can accurately gauge outcomes. It is a soft science, like psychology, and many practitioners with competing theories as to how to treat the patient. With spectacular failure rates. Theory after theory is consigned to the waste basket as we struggle to understand the human condition.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    I read this excerpt from a speech by Ben Bernanke in September (courtesy of Cullen Roche): The tools we have involve effecting financial asset prices. Those are the tools of monetary policy. There are a number of different channels. Mortgage rates, other interest rates, corporate bond rates. Also the prices of various assets. For example, … <\/p>\n

    Continue reading “Fed monetary policy”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,34],"tags":[2346,3649],"class_list":["post-6187","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-monetary-policy","tag-wealth-effect"],"yoast_head":"\nFed monetary policy - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Fed monetary policy - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"I read this excerpt from a speech by Ben Bernanke in September (courtesy of Cullen Roche): The tools we have involve effecting financial asset prices. 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Minsky conference: ....unusually low real interest rates should be expected to be linked with inflated asset prices, high asset return volatility and heightened merger activity. All of these financial market outcomes are often interpreted\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":2549,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/12\/06\/asset-prices-financial-and-monetary-stability\/","url_meta":{"origin":6187,"position":1},"title":"Asset prices, financial and monetary stability","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"December 6, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"If financial imbalances can build up in an environment of low inflation it stands to reason that a monetary policy reaction function that does not respond to these imbalances when they occur can unwittingly accommodate an unsustainable and disruptive boom in the real economy. The result need not take the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Debt Levels"","block_context":{"text":"Debt Levels","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/debt-levels\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":28677,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/11\/05\/rba-monetary-policy-and-the-housing-market\/","url_meta":{"origin":6187,"position":2},"title":"RBA monetary policy and the housing market","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 5, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Stephen Bartholomeusz writes that the RBA was forced to abandon its efforts at yield-curve control (YCC) because of bond market resistance: ...Confronted with market rates for the 2024 bonds that made a mockery of its yield target, the RBA had some options. It could have changed the maturity targeted; it\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":32240,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/04\/26\/disaster-is-a-strong-but-appropriate-word\/","url_meta":{"origin":6187,"position":3},"title":"“Disaster is a strong but appropriate word”","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 26, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Bond doyen Dr Lacey Hunt from Hoisington Investment Management wrote a scathing review of Fed monetary policy in his latest quarterly bulletin: Disaster is a strong but appropriate word that applies perfectly to the state of U.S. monetary policy. Consider the following: A) The Fed, in reaction to the COVID-19\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"PPI & CPI","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-04-22-ppi-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-04-22-ppi-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-04-22-ppi-cpi.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-04-22-ppi-cpi.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":5631,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/10\/01\/bernanke-attempts-to-justify-screwing-savers\/","url_meta":{"origin":6187,"position":4},"title":"Bernanke attempts to justify screwing savers","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 1, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"This extract from Joe Weisenthal lauds Ben Bernanke's defense of monetary policy and its effect on savers. I would encourage you to remember that the current low levels of interest rates, while in the first instance a reflection of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, are in a larger sense the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":15099,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/04\/05\/rba-monetary-policy-what-could-go-wrong\/","url_meta":{"origin":6187,"position":5},"title":"RBA Monetary Policy: What could go wrong?","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"April 5, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Statement by Philip Lowe, Governor Monetary Policy Decision 4 April 2017 At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50 per cent. Conditions in the global economy have improved over recent months. Both global trade and industrial production have picked up. Labour markets have\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Stock Markets"","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6187","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6187"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6187\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6187"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6187"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6187"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}