{"id":6178,"date":"2012-11-14T07:31:10","date_gmt":"2012-11-14T12:31:10","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=6178"},"modified":"2012-11-14T07:31:10","modified_gmt":"2012-11-14T12:31:10","slug":"the-most-compelling-argument-for-equities-pragmatic-capitalism","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/11\/14\/the-most-compelling-argument-for-equities-pragmatic-capitalism\/","title":{"rendered":"The Most Compelling Argument for Equities &#124; Pragmatic Capitalism"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Cullen Roche quotes David Rosenberg:<\/p>\n<blockquote style=\"background-color:#ccccff;\"><p>The Fed has also completely altered the relationship between stocks and bonds by nurturing an environment of ever deeper negative real interest rates.  Therein lies the rub.  The economy and earnings are weak, and getting weaker, but the interest rate used to discount the future earnings stream keeps getting more and more negative, and that in turn raises future profit expectations.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Cullen also refers to the spread between the S&amp;P 500 dividend yield and the 5-year Treasury Note yield which has widened to 170 basis points (1.70%). What he has not considered is the upsurge in share buybacks over the last decade as a tax efficient alternative to dividends &#8212; which means the dividend yield is understated. The spread should be even wider.<\/p>\n<p>via <a href='http:\/\/pragcap.com\/david-rosenberg-the-most-compelling-argument-for-equities?utm_source=dlvr.it&#038;utm_medium=twitter'>PRAGMATIC CAPITALISM \u2013 David Rosenberg: The Most Compelling Argument for Equities<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Cullen Roche quotes David Rosenberg: The Fed has also completely altered the relationship between stocks and bonds by nurturing an environment of ever deeper negative real interest rates. Therein lies the rub. The economy and earnings are weak, and getting weaker, but the interest rate used to discount the future earnings stream keeps getting more &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/11\/14\/the-most-compelling-argument-for-equities-pragmatic-capitalism\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;The Most Compelling Argument for Equities &#124; Pragmatic Capitalism&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[48,6,34],"tags":[1053,3102,3482],"class_list":["post-6178","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-earnings-dividends","category-fixed-income","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-dividend-yields","tag-share-buybacks","tag-treasury-yields"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Most Compelling Argument for Equities &#124; Pragmatic Capitalism - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Most Compelling Argument for Equities &#124; Pragmatic Capitalism - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Cullen Roche quotes David Rosenberg: The Fed has also completely altered the relationship between stocks and bonds by nurturing an environment of ever deeper negative real interest rates. Therein lies the rub. The economy and earnings are weak, and getting weaker, but the interest rate used to discount the future earnings stream keeps getting more &hellip; Continue reading &quot;The Most Compelling Argument for Equities &#124; Pragmatic Capitalism&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/11\/14\/the-most-compelling-argument-for-equities-pragmatic-capitalism\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2012-11-14T12:31:10+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2012\\\/11\\\/14\\\/the-most-compelling-argument-for-equities-pragmatic-capitalism\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2012\\\/11\\\/14\\\/the-most-compelling-argument-for-equities-pragmatic-capitalism\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\"},\"headline\":\"The Most Compelling Argument for Equities &#124; Pragmatic Capitalism\",\"datePublished\":\"2012-11-14T12:31:10+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2012\\\/11\\\/14\\\/the-most-compelling-argument-for-equities-pragmatic-capitalism\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":146,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#organization\"},\"keywords\":[\"dividend yields\",\"share buybacks\",\"Treasury yields\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Earnings &amp; Dividends\",\"Fixed Income\",\"US &amp; Canada\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2012\\\/11\\\/14\\\/the-most-compelling-argument-for-equities-pragmatic-capitalism\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2012\\\/11\\\/14\\\/the-most-compelling-argument-for-equities-pragmatic-capitalism\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2012\\\/11\\\/14\\\/the-most-compelling-argument-for-equities-pragmatic-capitalism\\\/\",\"name\":\"The Most Compelling Argument for Equities &#124; Pragmatic Capitalism - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2012-11-14T12:31:10+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2012\\\/11\\\/14\\\/the-most-compelling-argument-for-equities-pragmatic-capitalism\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2012\\\/11\\\/14\\\/the-most-compelling-argument-for-equities-pragmatic-capitalism\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2012\\\/11\\\/14\\\/the-most-compelling-argument-for-equities-pragmatic-capitalism\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"The Most Compelling Argument for Equities &#124; Pragmatic Capitalism\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\\\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.\",\"sameAs\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/facebook.com\\\/people\\\/The-Patient-Investor\\\/61572934660810\\\/\",\"https:\\\/\\\/www.instagram.com\\\/colin_thepatientinvestor\",\"https:\\\/\\\/au.linkedin.com\\\/in\\\/colintwiggs\"],\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/author\\\/investor\\\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"The Most Compelling Argument for Equities &#124; Pragmatic Capitalism - the patient investor","robots":{"index":"noindex","follow":"follow"},"og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"The Most Compelling Argument for Equities &#124; Pragmatic Capitalism - the patient investor","og_description":"Cullen Roche quotes David Rosenberg: The Fed has also completely altered the relationship between stocks and bonds by nurturing an environment of ever deeper negative real interest rates. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. 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A surge in share buybacks in the past two decades, however, disrupted this relationship, with the dividend yield falling close to 1.0 percent in the Dotcom era.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Earnings &amp; Dividends&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Earnings &amp; Dividends","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investing\/earnings-dividends\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":17993,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/03\/22\/buybacks-interest-rates-and-declining-earnings-growth\/","url_meta":{"origin":6178,"position":1},"title":"Buybacks, interest rates and declining growth","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 22, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"The Fed did a sharp about-turn on interest rates this week: a majority of FOMC members now expect no rate increases this year. Long-term treasury yields are falling, with the 10-Year breaking support at 2.55\/2.60 percent. Expect a test of 2.0%. While the initial reaction of stocks was typically bullish,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Debt Levels&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Debt Levels","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/debt-levels\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":15288,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/05\/15\/is-the-asx-over-priced\/","url_meta":{"origin":6178,"position":2},"title":"Is the ASX over-priced?","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"May 15, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"On the weekend I discussed how earnings for the S&P 500 have grown by roughly 6.0% over the last three decades but the growth rate should rise as stock buybacks have averaged just over 3.0% a year since 2011. In an ideal world the growth rate would lift to close\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":13396,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/05\/25\/stock-buybacks-short-term-gain-long-term-pain\/","url_meta":{"origin":6178,"position":3},"title":"Stock buybacks: Short-term gain, long-term pain","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"May 25, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"Companies are maintaining stock buybacks and dividends payouts despite falling earnings. Combined buybacks and dividend payouts for S&P 500 corporations exceeded earnings by an estimated $572 billion for 2015. The chart below illustrates how stock buybacks, for S&P 500 stocks, have grown to exceed dividend payouts. The combined figure now\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500 Stock Buybacks and Dividends compared to Earnings","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-05-25-spx-buybacks.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-05-25-spx-buybacks.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2016\/2016-05-25-spx-buybacks.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":7555,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/04\/24\/dr-eds-blog-dividends-buybacks-the-bull-market-excerpt\/","url_meta":{"origin":6178,"position":4},"title":"Dr. Ed&#8217;s Blog: Dividends, Buybacks, &#038; the Bull Market (excerpt)","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"April 24, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Ed Yardeni highlights that a surge in dividends and share buybacks is driving the current bull market: Most importantly, during the current earnings season, US corporations continue to announce dividend increases and more share buybacks. Previously, I\u2019ve shown that this corporate cash flow into the stock market--which totaled $2.1 trillion\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Earnings &amp; Dividends&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Earnings &amp; Dividends","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investing\/earnings-dividends\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":17828,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/02\/04\/resmed-inc-rmd-financial-performance-fy18\/","url_meta":{"origin":6178,"position":5},"title":"ResMed Inc (RMD) &#8211; Financial Performance FY18","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 4, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Revenue & Earnings Revenue per share grew at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.8% between FY09 and FY18 while earnings per share (EPS) slowed noticeably in FY15 to FY17 before picking up in FY18. Earnings per share in FY18 and TTM are adjusted for US$ 138 million of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australian Growth&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australian Growth","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investment-allocation\/asx-growth\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Revenue and Earnings per share","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2018\/rmd_1_revenue_2018-12-5.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6178","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6178"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6178\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6178"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6178"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6178"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}