{"id":61769,"date":"2025-05-24T06:16:02","date_gmt":"2025-05-24T06:16:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=61769"},"modified":"2025-05-24T06:16:14","modified_gmt":"2025-05-24T06:16:14","slug":"asx-market-leading-indicators","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/05\/24\/asx-market-leading-indicators\/","title":{"rendered":"ASX Market Leading Indicators"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\"Bull-Bear<\/div>\n
\"Stock<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

The gauge on the left indicates bull or bear market status, while the right reflects stock market drawdown risk.<\/p>\n

Bull\/Bear Market<\/h2>\n

The ASX Bull-Bear Market indicator is unchanged at 54%, signaling a mild bear market.<\/p>\n

Three of six indicators from Australia and China (our largest trading partner) signal risk-off. These have a combined weighting of 60% in the ASX Bull-Bear Index. The US Bull-Bear Index, also unchanged, makes up the remaining 40%.<\/p>\n

\"ASX<\/p>\n

The ASX 200 Financials index ($XFJ) threatens to break out above 9320 on the weekly chart, which would signal a new uptrend. The indicator would switch to risk-on, reversing its bear signal from March 7, 2025.<\/p>\n

\"ASX<\/p>\n

However, China’s NBS manufacturing PMI fell sharply to 49.0 in April. Any further decrease would trigger a recession signal.<\/p>\n

\"China:<\/p>\n

Australian private dwelling approvals are also weakening. A reversal of the 3-month MA below the red signal line would also signal risk-off.<\/p>\n

\"Australian<\/p>\n

Stock Pricing<\/h2>\n

ASX stock pricing eased slightly, to 79.65 percent, a sizable gain from 67.85 six weeks ago, but well below the high of 85.83 in February 2025.<\/p>\n

\"ASX<\/p>\n

We use z-scores to measure each indicator’s current position relative to its history, with the result expressed in standard deviations from the mean. We then calculate an average for the five readings and convert that to a percentile. The higher that stock market pricing is relative to its historical mean, the greater the risk of a sharp drawdown.<\/div>\n

Conclusion<\/h2>\n

The ASX signals a mild bear market, while the risk of a significant drawdown remains high.<\/p>\n

Acknowledgments<\/h4>\n