{"id":61762,"date":"2025-05-24T02:53:29","date_gmt":"2025-05-24T02:53:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=61762"},"modified":"2025-05-24T04:54:50","modified_gmt":"2025-05-24T04:54:50","slug":"us-market-leading-indicators","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/05\/24\/us-market-leading-indicators\/","title":{"rendered":"US Market Leading Indicators"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\"Bull\/Bear<\/div>\n
\"Stock<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

The gauge on the left indicates bull or bear market status, while the right reflects stock market drawdown risk.<\/p>\n

Bull\/Bear Market<\/h2>\n

Our Bull\/Bear Market indicator remained at 60% this week, with two of five leading indicators signaling risk-off:<\/p>\n

\"Bull-Bear<\/p>\n

30-Week Smoothed Momentum is approaching zero on the S&P 500. A cross to below zero would complete another composite bear signal.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

Stock Pricing<\/h2>\n

Stock pricing eased to 96.05, compared to 95.04 five weeks ago and a high of 97.79 percent in February. The extreme reading warns that stocks are at risk of a significant drawdown.<\/p>\n

\"Stock<\/p>\n

We use z-scores to measure each indicator’s current position relative to its history, with the result expressed in standard deviations from the mean. We then calculate an average for the five readings and convert that to a percentile. The higher that stock market pricing is relative to its historical mean, the greater the risk of a sharp drawdown.<\/div>\n

Conclusion<\/h2>\n

We remain in the early stages of a bear market, with the bull-bear indicator at 60%. Stock pricing is extreme, with elevated risk of a significant drawdown.<\/p>\n

Acknowledgments<\/h4>\n