{"id":61681,"date":"2025-05-17T06:48:36","date_gmt":"2025-05-17T06:48:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=61681"},"modified":"2025-05-17T06:50:50","modified_gmt":"2025-05-17T06:50:50","slug":"asx-weekly-leading-indicators","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/05\/17\/asx-weekly-leading-indicators\/","title":{"rendered":"ASX Weekly Leading Indicators"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\"Bull-Bear<\/div>\n
\"Stock<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

The gauge on the left indicates bull or bear market status, while the right reflects stock market drawdown risk.<\/p>\n

Bull\/Bear Market<\/h2>\n

The ASX Bull-Bear Market indicator is unchanged at 54%, signaling a mild bear market.<\/p>\n

Three of six indicators from Australia and China (our largest trading partner) signal risk-off. These have a combined weighting of 60% in the ASX Bull-Bear Index. The US Bull-Bear Index, also unchanged, makes up the remaining 40%.<\/p>\n

\"ASX<\/p>\n

NAB forward orders remain below zero, signaling a contraction.<\/p>\n

\"Australia:<\/p>\n

The OECD composite leading indicator for China improved to 101.03 in April, but this may have been affected by pre-ordering, which boosted exports ahead of the imposition of tariffs.<\/p>\n

\"China:<\/p>\n

China’s NBS manufacturing PMI fell sharply to 49.0 in April. Any further decrease would trigger another recession signal.<\/p>\n

\"China:<\/p>\n

Stock Pricing<\/h2>\n

ASX stock pricing increased to 79.92 percent, a substantial gain from 67.85 five weeks ago, and approaching the high of 85.83 from February.<\/p>\n

\"ASX<\/p>\n

We use z-scores to measure each indicator’s current position relative to its history, with the result expressed in standard deviations from the mean. We then calculate an average for the five readings and convert that to a percentile. The higher that stock market pricing is relative to its historical mean, the greater the risk of a sharp drawdown.<\/div>\n

Conclusion<\/h2>\n

The ASX bull-bear indicator signals a mild bear market, while the risk of a significant drawdown remains high.<\/p>\n

Australian private dwelling approvals are weakening, and China’s NBS manufacturing PMI is a hair’s breadth away from a recession warning; so the bull-bear indicator is on negative watch1<\/sup><\/em>.<\/p>\n

Acknowledgments<\/h4>\n