{"id":61679,"date":"2025-05-17T05:42:57","date_gmt":"2025-05-17T05:42:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=61679"},"modified":"2025-05-17T05:42:57","modified_gmt":"2025-05-17T05:42:57","slug":"us-weekly-leading-indicators","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/05\/17\/us-weekly-leading-indicators\/","title":{"rendered":"US Weekly Leading Indicators"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\"Bull\/Bear<\/div>\n
\"Stock<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

The gauge on the left indicates bull or bear market status, while the right reflects stock market drawdown risk.<\/p>\n

Bull\/Bear Market<\/h2>\n

Our Bull\/Bear Market indicator remained at 60% this week, with two of the five leading indicators signaling risk-off:<\/p>\n

\"Bull-Bear<\/p>\n

The University of Michigan consumer survey of current economic conditions recorded the second lowest reading since its start in 1960. The lowest was in the aftermath of the pandemic, in June 2022.<\/p>\n

\"University<\/p>\n

Stock Pricing<\/h2>\n

Stock pricing rallied to 96.59, compared to 95.04 four weeks ago and a high of 97.79 percent in February. The extreme reading warns that stocks are at risk of a significant drawdown.<\/p>\n

\"Stock<\/p>\n

We use z-scores to measure each indicator’s current position relative to its history, with the result expressed in standard deviations from the mean. We then calculate an average for the five readings and convert that to a percentile. The higher that stock market pricing is relative to its historical mean, the greater the risk of a sharp drawdown.<\/div>\n

Conclusion<\/h2>\n

We remain in the early stages of a bear market, with the bull-bear indicator at 60%. Stock pricing is extreme, warning of the risk of a significant drawdown.<\/p>\n

Acknowledgments<\/h4>\n