{"id":61631,"date":"2025-05-10T07:58:58","date_gmt":"2025-05-10T07:58:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=61631"},"modified":"2025-05-10T08:08:48","modified_gmt":"2025-05-10T08:08:48","slug":"us-weekly-market-indicators-5","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/05\/10\/us-weekly-market-indicators-5\/","title":{"rendered":"US Weekly Market Indicators"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\"Bull\/Bear<\/div>\n
\"Stock<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

The gauge on the left indicates bull or bear market status, while the right reflects stock market drawdown risk.<\/p>\n

Bull\/Bear Market<\/h2>\n

Our Bull\/Bear Market indicator remained at 60% this week, with two of the five leading indicators signaling risk-off:<\/p>\n

\"Bull-Bear<\/p>\n

We have revised our Heavy Truck Sales indicator to use a 12-month moving average of unadjusted data from the BEA. Recent data revisions were due to adjustments to seasonal factors provided by the Fed. Switching to a 12-month MA eliminates the need for seasonal adjustments.<\/p>\n

The graph below compares a buy-and-hold strategy for the S&P 500 (green) to an active strategy (purple) that switches to AA corporate bonds when the Heavy Truck Sales indicator signals risk-off (white bars).<\/p>\n

\"Heavy<\/p>\n

The graph below shows an active strategy (blue) that switches to gold when the Heavy Truck Sales indicator signals risk-off (white bars).<\/p>\n

\"Heavy<\/p>\n

Stock Pricing<\/h2>\n

Stock pricing eased to 96.03, compared to 95.04 three weeks ago and a high of 97.79 percent in February. The extreme reading warns that stocks are at risk of a significant drawdown.<\/p>\n

\"Stock<\/p>\n

We use z-scores to measure each indicator’s current position relative to its history, with the result expressed in standard deviations from the mean. We then calculate an average for the five readings and convert that to a percentile. The higher that stock market pricing is relative to its historical mean, the greater the risk of a sharp drawdown.<\/div>\n

Conclusion<\/h2>\n

We remain on the cusp of a bear market, with the bull-bear indicator at 60%. Stock pricing remains extreme, warning of the risk of a significant drawdown.<\/p>\n

Acknowledgments<\/h4>\n