{"id":61444,"date":"2025-03-29T06:58:17","date_gmt":"2025-03-29T06:58:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=61444"},"modified":"2025-03-29T10:08:26","modified_gmt":"2025-03-29T10:08:26","slug":"us-weekly-market-snapshot-7","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/03\/29\/us-weekly-market-snapshot-7\/","title":{"rendered":"US Weekly Market Snapshot"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\"Bull\/Bear<\/div>\n
\"Stock<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

The dial on the left indicates bull or bear market status, while the one on the right reflects stock market drawdown risk.<\/p>\n

Bull\/Bear Market<\/h2>\n

Our Bull\/Bear Market indicator is unchanged at 60%, with two of the five leading indicators signaling risk-off:<\/p>\n

\"Bull-Bear<\/p>\n

We replaced the Coincident Economic Activity Index with Current Economic Conditions from the University of Michigan’s monthly consumer survey. The UOM index offers earlier recession warnings\u2014when the 3-month moving average crosses below 100\u2014and more timely updates.<\/p>\n

\"University<\/p>\n

The current reading of 68.20 is a strong bear signal. The Fed Funds target rate is also in a bear cycle, but the two require confirmation from one of the following two indicators:<\/p>\n

If the Chicago Fed Financial National Conditions Index rises above -0.40.<\/p>\n

\"Chicago<\/p>\n

Or the S&P 500 30-week Smoothed Momentum crosses below zero.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

Stock Pricing<\/h2>\n

Stock pricing eased slightly to the 95.67th percentile from a high of 97.79 six weeks ago. However, the extreme reading still warns that stocks are at risk of a significant drawdown.<\/p>\n

\"Stock<\/p>\n

The Stock Pricing indicator compares stock prices to long-term sales, earnings, and economic output to gauge market risk. We use z-scores to measure each indicator’s current position relative to its history, with the result expressed in standard deviations from the mean. We then calculate an average for the five readings and convert that to a percentile. The higher that stock market pricing is relative to its historical mean, the greater the risk of a sharp drawdown.<\/div>\n

 <\/p>\n

Conclusion<\/h2>\n

There’s little change this week. We are close to a bear market, with the bull-bear indicator at 60%. Stock pricing is still extreme, highlighting the risk of a significant drawdown.<\/p>\n

Acknowledgments<\/h4>\n