{"id":61400,"date":"2025-03-19T09:16:15","date_gmt":"2025-03-19T09:16:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=61400"},"modified":"2025-03-19T09:16:44","modified_gmt":"2025-03-19T09:16:44","slug":"gold-makes-new-high-while-dow-and-asx-200-retreat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/03\/19\/gold-makes-new-high-while-dow-and-asx-200-retreat\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold rises to a new high while Dow and ASX 200 retreat"},"content":{"rendered":"

The rising uncertainty in financial markets undermined stocks despite solid consumer spending. However, gold rose to a new high, while Germany’s DAX and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index also enjoyed strong advances.<\/p>\n

The two-day rally on the S&P 500 faded, with a lower close warning of another test of support at 5500. A breach of support would confirm the bear market.<\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

The Dow Industrial Average is in a similar position, hesitating below resistance at 42,000. A reversal below the recent low would again confirm the bear market.<\/p>\n

\"Dow<\/p>\n

The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at this week’s FOMC meeting. The spread between the 2-year (purple)<\/span> and fed funds rate (gray)<\/span> shows the market pricing in an average 40 basis points of rate cuts over the next two years.<\/p>\n

\"2-Year<\/p>\n

Treasury yields remain low, with the 10-year continuing to test support at 4.1%.<\/p>\n

\"10-Year<\/p>\n

However, credit markets are tightening due to rising uncertainty, with high-yield spreads leaping by 160 basis points since the end of January.<\/p>\n

\"Junk<\/p>\n

Consumers<\/h2>\n

Consumer spending remained reasonably strong in February. New housing starts (purple)<\/span> recovered due to lower mortgage rates, while February new housing permits (green)<\/span> held at similar levels.<\/p>\n

\"Housing<\/p>\n

Thirty-year mortgage rates have eased to 6.65%, in line with softer 10-year Treasury yields.<\/p>\n

\"30-Year<\/p>\n

Light vehicle sales similarly recovered to nearly 16 million annual units in February.<\/p>\n

\"Light<\/p>\n

Dollar & Gold<\/h2>\n

The Dollar Index continues to test support at 103. Breach would offer a target of 100.<\/p>\n

\"Dollar<\/p>\n

Gold is among the few beneficiaries of the weak dollar and rising uncertainty, advancing to a new high of $3,033 per ounce.<\/p>\n

\"Spot<\/p>\n

Australia<\/h2>\n

The Australian ASX 200 index found short-term support at 7700, but the rally soon faded. A breach of 7700 would confirm the bear market.<\/p>\n

\"ASX<\/p>\n

The Financials Index displays a dead cat bounce<\/em> at 8000. Breach of support would further strengthen the bear signal.<\/p>\n

\"ASX<\/p>\n

Germany<\/h2>\n

Germany’s DAX is another beneficiary of the uncertainty, threatening a breakout above 23,500 after Germany’s parliament voted in favor of a 500 billion euro fund for infrastructure and easing strict borrowing rules to allow for increased defense spending.<\/p>\n

\"DAX<\/p>\n

Hong Kong<\/h2>\n

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index also displays a strong advance.<\/p>\n

\"Hang<\/p>\n

Conclusion<\/h2>\n

Consumer spending remains robust, but financial markets face rising uncertainty. Widening credit spreads warn of a likely contraction in new investment.<\/p>\n

The Dow and S&P 500 rally is fading, and reversal below recent support levels would confirm a bear market.<\/p>\n

Australia’s ASX 200 index displays a similar pattern and breach of support at 8000 on the ASX 200 Financials Index would confirm the bear market.<\/p>\n

Gold rose to a new high of $3,033 per ounce, while the current turmoil also boosted Germany’s DAX and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index.<\/p>\n

Acknowledgments<\/h4>\n