{"id":61334,"date":"2025-03-07T06:58:46","date_gmt":"2025-03-07T06:58:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=61334"},"modified":"2025-03-07T06:58:46","modified_gmt":"2025-03-07T06:58:46","slug":"loaded-for-bear","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/03\/07\/loaded-for-bear\/","title":{"rendered":"Loaded for bear"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Donald Trump&#8217;s on-again-off-again trade war with Canada and Mexico has ramped up uncertainty, causing a violent swing to risk-off in financial markets.<\/p>\n<p>Canada is in no mood to back down. Foreign Minister Melanie Joly responded to the latest twist in the tariff saga: &#8220;That&#8217;s enough! Canadians have had enough. We are a strong country. We will defend our sovereignty. We will defend our jobs. We will defend our borders&#8230;&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"525\" height=\"296\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/z3rIlAITjXk?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=en-US&#038;autohide=2&#038;start=180&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span><\/p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 retreated below support at 5800, signaling a primary downtrend.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-06-spx.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The Nasdaq QQQ ETF reinforced the bear signal, breaking support at 500.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-06-qqq.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Invesco Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ)\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average is the last major index that has not breached its primary support level, at 42K.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-06-dow.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Dow Jones Industrial Average\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Europe &amp; Australia<\/h2>\n<p>The response of international markets is mixed, with the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Euro Index in an uptrend.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-06-stoxx.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"DJ Stoxx 600 Euro Index\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>However, Australia&#8217;s ASX 200 breached primary support at 8050, signaling a bear market.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-06-xjo.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"ASX 200 Index\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>A Dow Jones Industrial Average breach of support at 42,000 would confirm a bear market in the US.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Donald Trump&#8217;s on-again-off-again trade war with Canada and Mexico has ramped up uncertainty, causing a violent swing to risk-off in financial markets. Canada is in no mood to back down. Foreign Minister Melanie Joly responded to the latest twist in the tariff saga: &#8220;That&#8217;s enough! Canadians have had enough. We are a strong country. We &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/03\/07\/loaded-for-bear\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Loaded for bear&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,33,34],"tags":[1113,6619,3010],"class_list":["post-61334","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia-nz-countries-regions","category-uk-europe-countries-regions","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-dow-jones-industrial-average","tag-invesco-nasdaq-100-etf-qqq","tag-sp-500"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Loaded for bear - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Loaded for bear - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Donald Trump&#8217;s on-again-off-again trade war with Canada and Mexico has ramped up uncertainty, causing a violent swing to risk-off in financial markets. Canada is in no mood to back down. Foreign Minister Melanie Joly responded to the latest twist in the tariff saga: &#8220;That&#8217;s enough! Canadians have had enough. We are a strong country. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-fXg","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":61320,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/03\/05\/sp-and-dow-threaten-a-bear-market\/","url_meta":{"origin":61334,"position":0},"title":"S&#038;P and Dow threaten a bear market","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 5, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 is testing primary support at 5750, shown on the weekly chart below. A breach would signal a primary downtrend. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is similarly headed for a test of primary support at 42K. The Transportation Index is already in a primary downtrend signaled by breach\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;GDP and Activity&quot;","block_context":{"text":"GDP and Activity","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/gdp-and-activity\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-04-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-04-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-04-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":61354,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/03\/11\/bear-market-confirmed\/","url_meta":{"origin":61334,"position":1},"title":"Bear market confirmed","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 11, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 41,433 after marginally breaking primary support at 42,000 yesterday. This confirms a bear market in terms of Dow Theory. Confirmation comes after an earlier bear signal, breaching primary support on the Transportation Average below. The S&P 500 also signals a primary downtrend after\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Dow Jones Industrial Average","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-11-dow.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-11-dow.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-11-dow.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":61348,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/03\/11\/its-a-bear-market-3\/","url_meta":{"origin":61334,"position":2},"title":"It&#8217;s a bear market","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 11, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 fell 2.7%, the Nasdaq QQQ ETF plunged 3.9% and the Dow lost 890 points on Monday, signaling a bear market. The S&P 500 broke support at 5800 to signal a primary downtrend. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 41911, marginally breaking support at 42K. Follow-through below\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-10-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-10-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-03-10-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":64176,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/04\/20\/dont-chase-the-rally\/","url_meta":{"origin":61334,"position":3},"title":"Don&#8217;t Chase the Rally","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 20, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points The S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq QQQ ETF have made new highs at 7126 and 649, respectively, signaling a fresh advance. However, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. The S&P 500 broke resistance at 7000, rallying to 7126 on Friday, buoyed by optimism over a resolution to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-04-17-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-04-17-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-04-17-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":62072,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/06\/27\/sp-500-breakout-but-no-buy-signal\/","url_meta":{"origin":61334,"position":4},"title":"S&#038;P 500 breakout but no buy signal","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 27, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Summary The S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached new highs, but the Dow has not yet confirmed the breakout Liquidity is strong, and long-term Treasury yields are softening But the Conference Board Leading Economic Index warns of a recession The dollar keeps falling, and demand for gold remains strong, flagging high\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-26-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-26-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-06-26-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":32674,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/05\/10\/its-a-bear-market-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":61334,"position":5},"title":"It&#8217;s a bear market","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 10, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The S&P 500 broke primary support at 4170 to confirm a bear market. A Trend Index peak at zero warns of strong selling pressure. The Nasdaq 100 similarly broke support at 13K, confirming the bear market. Dow Jones Industrial Average, already in a primary down-trend, confirmed the bear market with\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-05-09-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-05-09-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-05-09-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-05-09-spx.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61334","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=61334"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61334\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":61335,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61334\/revisions\/61335"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=61334"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=61334"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=61334"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}