{"id":60656,"date":"2025-01-30T07:58:16","date_gmt":"2025-01-30T07:58:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=60656"},"modified":"2025-01-30T08:01:35","modified_gmt":"2025-01-30T08:01:35","slug":"fed-takes-a-pause","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/01\/30\/fed-takes-a-pause\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed takes a pause"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Fed Chair Jerome Powell announced that the FOMC has left the fed funds target range unchanged at 4.25% to 4.5%.<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/video-api.wsj.com\/api-video\/player\/v3\/iframe.html?guid=77031BF2-1FF5-48C3-86ED-2BE33055AAD8\" width=\"512\" height=\"288\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>Powell described the labor market as &#8220;pretty stable and broadly in balance,&#8221; with a low hiring rate and an equally low quit rate.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-01-29-quits.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Quit Rate\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The key question for investors in the post-announcement news conference. Axios: &#8220;Was there any discussion on the timeline for ending the QT program?&#8221;<br \/>\nPowell responded that their indicators suggest that reserves are still abundant, and the Fed would continue with QT until that changes.<\/p>\n<p>Commercial bank reserves at the Fed reached $3.33 trillion on January 22.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-01-29-bankreserves.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Commercial Bank Reserves at the Fed\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" \/><\/p>\n<p>However, the decline in bank reserves is expected to accelerate as the rundown in overnight reverse repo (RRP) liabilities nears an end. The reduction in RRP caused money market funds to invest more than $2 trillion in T-Bills over the past two years, effectively offsetting the withdrawal of liquidity via QT.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-01-29-rrp.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Fed Reverse Repo (RRP) Liabilities\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Financial market conditions currently signal abundant liquidity, with the Chicago Fed Index falling to -0.65. However, that could reverse as the Fed persists with its rundown of securities on its balance sheet.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-01-29-nfci.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" \/><\/p>\n<p>We will continue with weekly charts for the present as they help to keep daily volatility in perspective.<\/p>\n<p>The 10-year Treasury yield (TNX) below has found support at 4.5%, and respect would signal an advance to 5.0%.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-01-29-tnx-w.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"10-Year Treasury Yield\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 is testing resistance at 6100. Selling pressure is secondary, and breakout will likely offer a target of 6400.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-01-29-spx-w.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Dollar &amp; Gold<\/h2>\n<p>The Dollar Index (DXY) found short-term support at 107. Recovery above 108 would indicate another test of 110. Broad imposition of tariffs would likely signal the continuation of the long-term uptrend.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-01-29-dxy-w.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Dollar Index\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Gold is testing resistance at $2,800 per ounce after a bullish shallow correction. Breakout would offer a target of $3,000.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-01-29-gold-w.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Spot Gold\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Silver remains bearish, testing support at $30, with the trend direction uncertain until a breakout above $32.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-01-29-silver-w.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Spot Silver\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>The Fed is likely to keep rate cuts to a minimum for as long as the labor market remains &#8220;in balance.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Liquidity is likely to have a greater impact on financial markets, with an expected contraction in 2025, which is bearish for stocks and bonds.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Fed Chair Jerome Powell announced that the FOMC has left the fed funds target range unchanged at 4.25% to 4.5%. Powell described the labor market as &#8220;pretty stable and broadly in balance,&#8221; with a low hiring rate and an equally low quit rate. The key question for investors in the post-announcement news conference. Axios: &#8220;Was &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/01\/30\/fed-takes-a-pause\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Fed takes a pause&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,34],"tags":[69,6622,6273,1073,1353,1355,1429,3977,5349,3010,3204,3206],"class_list":["post-60656","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-10-year-treasury-yield","tag-chicago-fed-national-financial-conditions-index","tag-commercial-bank-reserves-at-the-fed","tag-dollar-index","tag-fed-funds-rate","tag-fed-total-assets","tag-fomc","tag-jerome-powell","tag-reverse-repo-rrp","tag-sp-500","tag-spot-gold","tag-spot-silver"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Fed takes a pause - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Fed takes a pause - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Fed Chair Jerome Powell announced that the FOMC has left the fed funds target range unchanged at 4.25% to 4.5%. Powell described the labor market as &#8220;pretty stable and broadly in balance,&#8221; with a low hiring rate and an equally low quit rate. The key question for investors in the post-announcement news conference. 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He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-fMk","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":62984,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/30\/fed-cut-but-no-rally\/","url_meta":{"origin":60656,"position":0},"title":"Fed cut, but no rally","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 30, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points The Fed cut its funds rate target by 25 basis points and will end QT on December 1. Fed Chair Jerome Powell doused expectations for a further rate cut at the next FOMC meeting, causing rates to drift higher. ADP weekly data indicates that private sector employment is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"ADP Weekly Private Sector Employment","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-10-29-adp.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-10-29-adp.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-10-29-adp.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-10-29-adp.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":62724,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/10\/15\/qt-with-a-twist\/","url_meta":{"origin":60656,"position":1},"title":"QT with a Twist","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 15, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points Fed Chair Jerome Powell has indicated that the Fed is near the end of QT. However, the Fed continues to intervene in the Treasury market, increasing its holdings of long-term bonds to suppress yields. Bonds remain in a secular bear market. Gold and silver will likely continue to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Commercial Bank Reserves at the Fed","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-10-14-bankreserves.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-10-14-bankreserves.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-10-14-bankreserves.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":62459,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/09\/18\/62459\/","url_meta":{"origin":60656,"position":2},"title":"Powell walks the tightrope with the latest FOMC decision","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 18, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points, with two more expected this year. There is no change to the rate of Fed balance sheet runoff (QT). FOMC dot plot projections reflect a mildly dovish long-run monetary policy, but not sufficient to antagonize the bond market. Chair Jerome\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"FOMC Projections","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-17-fomc.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":33289,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/05\/23\/sp-500-and-fed-hawks-or-doves\/","url_meta":{"origin":60656,"position":3},"title":"S&#038;P 500 and Fed hawks or doves","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 23, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The Fed is doing its best to talk the economy into a recession, in the hope that falling aggregate demand would shrink inflation. FOMC minutes show the Fed is considering 50 basis point hikes at its next two meetings, while Chairman Jay Powell pays frequent homage to Paul Volcker. The\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Real Fed Funds Rate","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-05-23-ffr-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-05-23-ffr-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-05-23-ffr-cpi.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-05-23-ffr-cpi.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":59987,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/12\/19\/fed-shock-really\/","url_meta":{"origin":60656,"position":4},"title":"Fed shock &#8211; really?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 19, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Stocks plunged on indications that the Fed would slow further rate cuts after announcing a 25-basis-point cut at the FOMC press conference on Wednesday. Really? That could be seen coming for months. The economy has proven resilient, unemployment is low, and retail sales are growing. The obvious question is: \"Why\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"FOMC Dot Plot","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-12-18-dotplot.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-12-18-dotplot.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-12-18-dotplot.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":43191,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/07\/27\/more-than-two-rate-hikes-ahead\/","url_meta":{"origin":60656,"position":5},"title":"More than two rate hikes ahead?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 27, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The FOMC announced another 25 basis point rate hike on July 26. The target maximum of 5.50% is the highest level for the fed funds rate in 22 years. Inflation is falling, with monthly CPI and core CPI (annualized) close to the Fed's 2.0% target. We expect an uptick in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Fed Funds Rate Target - Maximum","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-07-26-fomc.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-07-26-fomc.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-07-26-fomc.jpg?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-07-26-fomc.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60656","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=60656"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60656\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":60659,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60656\/revisions\/60659"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=60656"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=60656"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=60656"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}