{"id":6053,"date":"2012-11-06T22:07:19","date_gmt":"2012-11-07T03:07:19","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=6053"},"modified":"2012-11-06T22:07:19","modified_gmt":"2012-11-07T03:07:19","slug":"australia-hard-or-soft-landing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/11\/06\/australia-hard-or-soft-landing\/","title":{"rendered":"Australia: Hard or soft landing?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Browsing the latest charts from the RBA.<\/p>\n<p>Despite record low 10-year bond yields&#8230;..<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" alt=\"Housing Finances\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2012\/2012-11-19tr-10yau.gif?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Credit growth is subdued and likely to remain so for some time.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" alt=\"Credit Growth by Sector\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2012\/2012-11-9br-cgbys.gif?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>After a massive credit bubble lasting more than a decade.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" alt=\"Housing Finances\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2012\/2012-11-9tr-credit.gif?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Households are saving close to 10 percent of Disposable Income in anticipation of a contraction.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" alt=\"Housing Finances\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2012\/2012-11-5tr-hhsaving.gif?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>While banks are reluctant to lend when their margins are being squeezed.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" alt=\"Housing Finances\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2012\/2012-11-29br-nim.gif?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Borrowing offshore is not an option. That is how we got into such a fix in the first place.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" alt=\"Housing Finances\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2012\/2012-11-17bl-nfl.gif?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Makes me believe we are unlikely to see another housing boom for some time.<\/p>\n<p>There are two possible outcomes: a soft landing and a hard landing.<\/p>\n<p>It all depends on whether Wayne Swan and the RBA know their jobs.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Browsing the latest charts from the RBA. Despite record low 10-year bond yields&#8230;.. Credit growth is subdued and likely to remain so for some time. After a massive credit bubble lasting more than a decade. Households are saving close to 10 percent of Disposable Income in anticipation of a contraction. While banks are reluctant to &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/11\/06\/australia-hard-or-soft-landing\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Australia: Hard or soft landing?&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,31],"tags":[474,965,993,1728,1736,2438],"class_list":["post-6053","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia-nz-countries-regions","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","tag-bond-yields","tag-debt-expansion","tag-deleveraging","tag-household-savings","tag-housing-bubble","tag-net-interest-margin"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Australia: Hard or soft landing? - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Australia: Hard or soft landing? - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Browsing the latest charts from the RBA. Despite record low 10-year bond yields&#8230;.. Credit growth is subdued and likely to remain so for some time. After a massive credit bubble lasting more than a decade. Households are saving close to 10 percent of Disposable Income in anticipation of a contraction. While banks are reluctant to &hellip; Continue reading &quot;Australia: Hard or soft landing?&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/11\/06\/australia-hard-or-soft-landing\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2012-11-07T03:07:19+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/static.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2012\/2012-11-19tr-10yau.gif\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2012\\\/11\\\/06\\\/australia-hard-or-soft-landing\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2012\\\/11\\\/06\\\/australia-hard-or-soft-landing\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\"},\"headline\":\"Australia: Hard or soft landing?\",\"datePublished\":\"2012-11-07T03:07:19+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2012\\\/11\\\/06\\\/australia-hard-or-soft-landing\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":124,\"commentCount\":21,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2012\\\/11\\\/06\\\/australia-hard-or-soft-landing\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2012\\\/2012-11-19tr-10yau.gif\",\"keywords\":[\"bond yields\",\"debt expansion\",\"deleveraging\",\"household savings\",\"housing bubble\",\"net interest margin\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Australia &amp; NZ\",\"Banks &amp; Interest Rates\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2012\\\/11\\\/06\\\/australia-hard-or-soft-landing\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2012\\\/11\\\/06\\\/australia-hard-or-soft-landing\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2012\\\/11\\\/06\\\/australia-hard-or-soft-landing\\\/\",\"name\":\"Australia: Hard or soft landing? - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2012\\\/11\\\/06\\\/australia-hard-or-soft-landing\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2012\\\/11\\\/06\\\/australia-hard-or-soft-landing\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2012\\\/2012-11-19tr-10yau.gif\",\"datePublished\":\"2012-11-07T03:07:19+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2012\\\/11\\\/06\\\/australia-hard-or-soft-landing\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2012\\\/11\\\/06\\\/australia-hard-or-soft-landing\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2012\\\/11\\\/06\\\/australia-hard-or-soft-landing\\\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2012\\\/2012-11-19tr-10yau.gif\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2012\\\/2012-11-19tr-10yau.gif\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2012\\\/11\\\/06\\\/australia-hard-or-soft-landing\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Australia: Hard or soft landing?\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-1zD","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":14430,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/11\/03\/bond-spreads-financial-risk-is-easing\/","url_meta":{"origin":6053,"position":0},"title":"Bond spreads: Financial risk is easing","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"November 3, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"Bond spreads are an important indicator of risk in financial markets. When corporate bond yields are at a substantial premium to Treasury yields, that indicates higher default risk among large corporations. The graph below, from the RBA chart pack, shows the premium charged for AA-rated corporations compared to US Treasuries.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":14843,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/02\/18\/bond-spreads-bullish-for-us-less-so-australia\/","url_meta":{"origin":6053,"position":1},"title":"Bond spreads bullish for US, less so Australia","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"February 18, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Yield Curve The yield curve is one of the best predictors of US economic recessions. Every time the yield curve has turned negative in the last fifty years, a recession has followed. First of all, what is a yield curve? It is the plot of yields on bonds, normally Treasuries,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":14752,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/01\/30\/cs-australia-at-risk-as-usd-rises-macrobusiness\/","url_meta":{"origin":6053,"position":2},"title":"Australia at risk as USD rises","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"January 30, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"NAB are predicting that the RBA will cut rates twice in 2017. This ties in with the Credit Suisse view: if Donald Trump succeeds in reducing the US trade deficit, it will cause a USD shortage in international markets. And, in Australia, \"a USD shortage tends to exert downward pressure\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":7798,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/05\/26\/two-cheers-for-higher-japanese-bond-yields-in-the-spirit-of-milton-friedman-the-market-monetarist\/","url_meta":{"origin":6053,"position":3},"title":"Two cheers for higher Japanese bond yields in the spirit of Milton Friedman | The Market Monetarist","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"May 26, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Market monetarist Lars Christensen gives an insight into rising Japanese (JGB) bond yields: .....the markets do not think that the Japanese government is about to go bankrupt. In fact completely in parallel with the increase in inflation expectations the markets\u2019 perception of the Japanese government\u2019s default risk have decreased significantly.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":62357,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/09\/10\/gold-flags-a-secular-bear-market-in-bonds\/","url_meta":{"origin":6053,"position":4},"title":"Gold flags a secular bear market in bonds","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 10, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points Government bonds sell at inflated prices as central banks suppress long-term yields. Long-term yields are in a cyclical downtrend, driven by speculators. However, long-term bonds are in a secular bear market fueled by fiscal instability and a rising threat of inflation. International capital flows will also dry up\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Combined Assets of the Fed, ECB, BOJ, and PBOC","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-03-cb-assets.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-03-cb-assets.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-03-cb-assets.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":25663,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/05\/08\/chinas-bond-market-tremors\/","url_meta":{"origin":6053,"position":5},"title":"China&#8217;s bond market tremors","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 8, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"China's credit contraction warns of an economic slowdown. But the Copper\/Gold ratio is still climbing; the contraction will only be confirmed when this reverses. From Julien Bittel on Twitter: China's bond market faces a sell-off as yields rise. From Bloomberg: A much-anticipated selloff in China\u2019s bond market, the world\u2019s second\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6053","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6053"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6053\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6053"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6053"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6053"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}