{"id":6028,"date":"2012-11-05T20:01:58","date_gmt":"2012-11-06T01:01:58","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=6028"},"modified":"2012-11-05T20:01:58","modified_gmt":"2012-11-06T01:01:58","slug":"bank-of-england-should-leave-forecasting-to-ladbrokes-the-market-monetarist","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/11\/05\/bank-of-england-should-leave-forecasting-to-ladbrokes-the-market-monetarist\/","title":{"rendered":"Bank of England should leave forecasting to Ladbrokes \u00ab The Market Monetarist"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The Market Monetarist makes a novel suggestion as to how to avoid central banks from making biased forecasts:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8220;&#8230;..even better as I have suggested numerous times that the central bank simply set-up a prediction market. In Britain that would be extremely easy \u2013 I don\u2019t think there is a country in the world with so many bookmakers. The Bank of England could simply ask a company like Ladbrokes or a similar company to set-up betting markets for key macro economic variables \u2013 such as inflation and nominal GDP. It would be extremely cheap and the forecast created from such prediction market would likely be at least as good as what is presently produced by the otherwise clever staff at the BoE.&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>That could work &#8230;..until punters learn that the bets they place indirectly influence central bank monetary policy. It might pay market participants to place large bets on low or high inflation if they stand to benefit from the central bank response.<\/p>\n<p>via <a href='http:\/\/marketmonetarist.com\/2012\/11\/05\/bank-of-england-should-leave-forecasting-to-ladbrokes\/?utm_medium=twitter&#038;utm_source=twitterfeed'>Bank of England should leave forecasting to Ladbrokes \u00ab The Market Monetarist<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Market Monetarist makes a novel suggestion as to how to avoid central banks from making biased forecasts: &#8220;&#8230;..even better as I have suggested numerous times that the central bank simply set-up a prediction market. In Britain that would be extremely easy \u2013 I don\u2019t think there is a country in the world with so &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/11\/05\/bank-of-england-should-leave-forecasting-to-ladbrokes-the-market-monetarist\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Bank of England should leave forecasting to Ladbrokes \u00ab The Market Monetarist&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,33],"tags":[625,2181,2346],"class_list":["post-6028","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-uk-europe-countries-regions","tag-central-bank-forecasts","tag-macro-economic-variables","tag-monetary-policy"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Bank of England should leave forecasting to Ladbrokes \u00ab The Market Monetarist - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Bank of England should leave forecasting to Ladbrokes \u00ab The Market Monetarist - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The Market Monetarist makes a novel suggestion as to how to avoid central banks from making biased forecasts: &#8220;&#8230;..even better as I have suggested numerous times that the central bank simply set-up a prediction market. In Britain that would be extremely easy \u2013 I don\u2019t think there is a country in the world with so &hellip; Continue reading &quot;Bank of England should leave forecasting to Ladbrokes \u00ab The Market Monetarist&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/11\/05\/bank-of-england-should-leave-forecasting-to-ladbrokes-the-market-monetarist\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2012-11-06T01:01:58+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2012\\\/11\\\/05\\\/bank-of-england-should-leave-forecasting-to-ladbrokes-the-market-monetarist\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2012\\\/11\\\/05\\\/bank-of-england-should-leave-forecasting-to-ladbrokes-the-market-monetarist\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\"},\"headline\":\"Bank of England should leave forecasting to Ladbrokes \u00ab The Market Monetarist\",\"datePublished\":\"2012-11-06T01:01:58+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2012\\\/11\\\/05\\\/bank-of-england-should-leave-forecasting-to-ladbrokes-the-market-monetarist\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":184,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#organization\"},\"keywords\":[\"central bank forecasts\",\"macro economic variables\",\"Monetary Policy\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Banks &amp; Interest Rates\",\"UK &amp; Europe\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2012\\\/11\\\/05\\\/bank-of-england-should-leave-forecasting-to-ladbrokes-the-market-monetarist\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2012\\\/11\\\/05\\\/bank-of-england-should-leave-forecasting-to-ladbrokes-the-market-monetarist\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2012\\\/11\\\/05\\\/bank-of-england-should-leave-forecasting-to-ladbrokes-the-market-monetarist\\\/\",\"name\":\"Bank of England should leave forecasting to Ladbrokes \u00ab The Market Monetarist - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2012-11-06T01:01:58+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2012\\\/11\\\/05\\\/bank-of-england-should-leave-forecasting-to-ladbrokes-the-market-monetarist\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2012\\\/11\\\/05\\\/bank-of-england-should-leave-forecasting-to-ladbrokes-the-market-monetarist\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2012\\\/11\\\/05\\\/bank-of-england-should-leave-forecasting-to-ladbrokes-the-market-monetarist\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Bank of England should leave forecasting to Ladbrokes \u00ab The Market Monetarist\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\\\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. 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Just Monday this week the Russian stock market fell in excess of 10%\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":5276,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/08\/16\/friedmans-japanese-lessons-for-the-ecb-the-market-monetarist\/","url_meta":{"origin":6028,"position":2},"title":"Friedman\u2019s Japanese lessons for the ECB \u00ab The Market Monetarist","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 16, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"Milton Friedman, December 1997: Defenders of the Bank of Japan will say, \u201cHow? The bank has already cut its discount rate to 0.5 percent. What more can it do to increase the quantity of money?\u201d The answer is straightforward: The Bank of Japan can buy government bonds on the open\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":7685,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/05\/04\/blame-del-pont-for-the-nightmarish-rise-in-argentine-inflation-the-market-monetarist\/","url_meta":{"origin":6028,"position":3},"title":"Blame del Pont for the nightmarish rise in Argentine inflation | The Market Monetarist","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"May 4, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Lars Christensen cites MercoPress on hyper-inflation in Argentina: Because of inflation, people collect their salaries and rush to turn them into foreign currency\u201d, added the money traders\u2026 He observes: The collapse of the peso should be no surprise to anybody who have studied Milton Friedman. Unfortunately Argentina\u2019s central bank governor\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":7076,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/03\/19\/fed-ngdp-targeting-would-greatly-increase-global-financial-stability-the-market-monetarist\/","url_meta":{"origin":6028,"position":4},"title":"Fed NGDP targeting would greatly increase global financial stability &#124; Market Monetarist","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 19, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Lars Christensen describes how NGDP targeting would help the global economy withstand shocks like another eurozone crisis: Lets look at two different hypothetical US monetary policy settings. First what we could call an \u2018adaptive\u2019 monetary policy rule and second on a strict NGDP targeting rule. \u2018Adaptive\u2019 monetary policy \u2013 a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":13565,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/07\/12\/the-italian-bank-crisis-the-one-graph-version-the-market-monetarist\/","url_meta":{"origin":6028,"position":5},"title":"The Italian bank crisis \u2013 the one graph version | The Market Monetarist","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"July 12, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"I love Lars Christensen's work. Simple but elegant. This is a bit wonkish for an investment blog but he makes a very important point which applies to far more than just Italy. Today I was interviewed by a Danish journalist about the Italian banking crisis..... He asked me a very\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Stock Markets&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6028","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6028"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6028\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6028"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6028"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6028"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}