{"id":60218,"date":"2025-01-05T02:54:36","date_gmt":"2025-01-05T02:54:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=60218"},"modified":"2025-01-05T03:58:51","modified_gmt":"2025-01-05T03:58:51","slug":"weekly-stock-market-snapshot-12","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/01\/05\/weekly-stock-market-snapshot-12\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Stock Market Snapshot"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"fleximage\">\n<div class=\"flexhalf flexhalf_always\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-12-06-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=525%2C297&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Bull\/Bear Market Indicator\" width=\"525\" height=\"297\" \/><\/div>\n<div class=\"flexhalf flexhalf_always\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-01-03-stock-value-gauge.png?resize=525%2C297&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Stock Market Pricing Indicator\" width=\"525\" height=\"297\" \/><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>The dial on the left indicates bull or bear market status, while the one on the right reflects stock market drawdown risk.<\/p>\n<h2>Bull\/Bear Market<\/h2>\n<p>The Bull\/Bear Market indicator remains at 60%, with the two yield-curve indicators signaling <em>Risk-off<\/em>:<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-01-03-bull-bear.png?resize=525%2C247&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Bull-Bear Market Indicator\" width=\"525\" height=\"247\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The Fed is cutting interest rates which usually flags a bear market.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-01-03-ffr.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Fed Funds Target rate: Mid-point\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" \/><\/p>\n<p>However, financial market conditions remain ultra-easy. Also, the coincident economic index (below) held above its 2.5% threshold in November, heavy truck sales are robust, and employment in cyclical sectors is close to record highs.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-01-03-coincident.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Coincident Economic Activity\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Stock Pricing<\/h2>\n<p>Stock pricing eased to the 97.90 percentile from 97.99 last Friday. The extreme reading warns that stocks remain at risk of a significant drawdown. Stock valuations, however, give no indication as to market timing:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Markets can remain irrational a lot longer than you and I can remain solvent. ~ <a href=\"https:\/\/quoteinvestigator.com\/2011\/08\/09\/remain-solvent\/\">A.Gary Shilling (1986)<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-01-03-stock-value.png?resize=525%2C297&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Stock Market Value Indicator\" width=\"525\" height=\"297\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The Stock Pricing indicator compares stock prices to long-term sales, earnings, and economic output to gauge market risk. We use z-scores to measure each indicator&#8217;s current position relative to its history, with the result expressed in standard deviations from the mean. We then calculate an average for the five readings and convert that to a percentile. The higher that stock market pricing is relative to its historical mean, the greater the risk of a sharp drawdown.<\/p>\n<h2>Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>We are at the cusp of a bear market, with the bull-bear indicator at 60%, and stock pricing is extreme, warning of the risk of large drawdowns.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The dial on the left indicates bull or bear market status, while the one on the right reflects stock market drawdown risk. Bull\/Bear Market The Bull\/Bear Market indicator remains at 60%, with the two yield-curve indicators signaling Risk-off: The Fed is cutting interest rates which usually flags a bear market. However, financial market conditions remain &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/01\/05\/weekly-stock-market-snapshot-12\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Weekly Stock Market Snapshot&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[37,34],"tags":[6681,6682],"class_list":["post-60218","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-active-investing","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-bull-bear-market-indicator","tag-stock-market-value-indicator"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Weekly Stock Market Snapshot - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Weekly Stock Market Snapshot - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The dial on the left indicates bull or bear market status, while the one on the right reflects stock market drawdown risk. Bull\/Bear Market The Bull\/Bear Market indicator remains at 60%, with the two yield-curve indicators signaling Risk-off: The Fed is cutting interest rates which usually flags a bear market. However, financial market conditions remain &hellip; Continue reading &quot;Weekly Stock Market Snapshot&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/01\/05\/weekly-stock-market-snapshot-12\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-01-05T02:54:36+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-01-05T03:58:51+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-12-06-bull-bear-gauge.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/01\/05\/weekly-stock-market-snapshot-12\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/01\/05\/weekly-stock-market-snapshot-12\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\"},\"headline\":\"Weekly Stock Market Snapshot\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-01-05T02:54:36+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-01-05T03:58:51+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/01\/05\/weekly-stock-market-snapshot-12\/\"},\"wordCount\":242,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/01\/05\/weekly-stock-market-snapshot-12\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-12-06-bull-bear-gauge.png\",\"keywords\":[\"Bull-Bear Market Indicator\",\"Stock Market Value Indicator\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Active Investing\",\"US &amp; Canada\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/01\/05\/weekly-stock-market-snapshot-12\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/01\/05\/weekly-stock-market-snapshot-12\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/01\/05\/weekly-stock-market-snapshot-12\/\",\"name\":\"Weekly Stock Market Snapshot - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/01\/05\/weekly-stock-market-snapshot-12\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/01\/05\/weekly-stock-market-snapshot-12\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-12-06-bull-bear-gauge.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-01-05T02:54:36+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-01-05T03:58:51+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/01\/05\/weekly-stock-market-snapshot-12\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/01\/05\/weekly-stock-market-snapshot-12\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/01\/05\/weekly-stock-market-snapshot-12\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-12-06-bull-bear-gauge.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-12-06-bull-bear-gauge.png\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/01\/05\/weekly-stock-market-snapshot-12\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Weekly Stock Market Snapshot\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. 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Three of the six leading indicators continue to signal risk-off, but the US bull-bear index (a 40% weighting)\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Bull-Bear Market Indicator","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-04-04-asx-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-04-04-asx-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-04-04-asx-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":58574,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/10\/19\/weekly-stock-market-snapshot-3\/","url_meta":{"origin":60218,"position":1},"title":"Weekly Stock Market Snapshot","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 19, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The above two dials provide a snapshot of our market view and attitude to risk. Bull\/Bear Market The Bull\/Bear Market indicator is unchanged from last week. The indicator helps with market timing, suggesting when to change market allocation from Risk-On (e.g. growth stocks) to Risk-Off (e.g. gold or A-grade bonds).\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Active Investing&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Active Investing","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investing\/active-investing\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Bull\/Bear Market Indicator","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-04-bull-bear-gauge2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-04-bull-bear-gauge2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-04-bull-bear-gauge2.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":60991,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/02\/15\/us-weekly-market-snapshot\/","url_meta":{"origin":60218,"position":2},"title":"US Weekly Market Snapshot","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 15, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The dial on the left indicates bull or bear market status, while the one on the right reflects stock market drawdown risk. Bull\/Bear Market The Bull\/Bear Market indicator remains at 60%, with no significant changes. Two of the five leading indicators signal Risk-off: Stock Pricing Stock pricing increased slightly to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Active Investing&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Active Investing","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investing\/active-investing\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Bull\/Bear Market Indicator","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-02-07-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-02-07-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-02-07-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":59837,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/12\/14\/weekly-stock-market-snapshot-9\/","url_meta":{"origin":60218,"position":3},"title":"Weekly Stock Market Snapshot","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 14, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The dial on the left indicates bull or bear market status, while the one on the right reflects stock market drawdown risk. The higher that stock market pricing is relative to its historical mean, the greater the risk of a sharp drawdown. Bull\/Bear Market The Bull\/Bear Market indicator improved to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Active Investing&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Active Investing","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investing\/active-investing\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Bull\/Bear Market Indicator","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-12-06-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-12-06-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-12-06-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":58724,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/10\/26\/weekly-stock-market-snapshot-4\/","url_meta":{"origin":60218,"position":4},"title":"Weekly Stock Market Snapshot","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 26, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The above two dials provide a snapshot of our market view and attitude to risk. Bull\/Bear Market The Bull\/Bear Market indicator is unchanged from last week. The indicator helps with market timing, suggesting when to change market allocation from Risk-On (e.g. growth stocks) to Risk-Off (e.g. gold or A-grade bonds).\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Active Investing&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Active Investing","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investing\/active-investing\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Bull\/Bear Market Indicator","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-04-bull-bear-gauge2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-04-bull-bear-gauge2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-04-bull-bear-gauge2.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":60078,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/12\/21\/weekly-stock-market-snapshot-10\/","url_meta":{"origin":60218,"position":5},"title":"Weekly Stock Market Snapshot","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 21, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The dial on the left indicates bull or bear market status, while the one on the right reflects stock market drawdown risk. The higher that stock market pricing is relative to its historical mean, the greater the risk of a sharp drawdown. Bull\/Bear Market The Bull\/Bear Market indicator improved to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Active Investing&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Active Investing","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investing\/active-investing\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Bull\/Bear Market Indicator","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-12-06-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-12-06-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-12-06-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60218","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=60218"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60218\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":60226,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60218\/revisions\/60226"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=60218"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=60218"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=60218"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}