{"id":60149,"date":"2024-12-30T02:26:46","date_gmt":"2024-12-30T02:26:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=60149"},"modified":"2024-12-30T02:26:46","modified_gmt":"2024-12-30T02:26:46","slug":"weekly-stock-market-snapshot-11","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/12\/30\/weekly-stock-market-snapshot-11\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Stock Market Snapshot"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"fleximage\">\n<div class=\"flexhalf flexhalf_always\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-12-06-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=525%2C297&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Bull\/Bear Market Indicator\" width=\"525\" height=\"297\" \/><\/div>\n<div class=\"flexhalf flexhalf_always\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-12-27-stock-value-gauge.png?resize=525%2C297&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Stock Market Pricing Indicator\" width=\"525\" height=\"297\" \/><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>The dial on the left indicates bull or bear market status, while the one on the right reflects stock market drawdown risk.<\/p>\n<h2>Bull\/Bear Market<\/h2>\n<p>The Bull\/Bear Market indicator improved to 60% from 40% three weeks ago after a significant revision to November heavy truck sales data.<\/p>\n<p>Two of the five indicators signal <em>Risk-off<\/em>:<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-12-27-bull-bear.png?resize=525%2C247&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Bull\/Bear Market Indicator\" width=\"525\" height=\"247\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The Fed has cut interest rates three times since August, which usually flags a bear market.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-12-27-ffr.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Fed Funds Target rate: Mid-point\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" \/><\/p>\n<p>However, financial market conditions remain ultra-easy, and the coincident economic index, while close to the 2.5% threshold, is still above water. Heavy truck sales remain robust, while employment in cyclical sectors is near record highs.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-12-27-cyclical-jobs.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Cyclical Sectors: Employment\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Stock Pricing<\/h2>\n<p>Stock pricing increased to the 97.99 percentile from 97.91 last Friday. The extreme reading warns that stocks are at risk of a significant drawdown.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-12-27-stock-value.png?resize=525%2C245&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Stock Market Value Indicator\" width=\"525\" height=\"245\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The Stock Pricing indicator compares stock prices to long-term sales, earnings, and economic output to gauge market risk. We use z-scores to measure each indicator&#8217;s current position relative to its history, with the result expressed in standard deviations from the mean. We then calculate an average for the five readings and convert that to a percentile. The higher that stock market pricing is relative to its historical mean, the greater the risk of a sharp drawdown.<\/p>\n<h2>Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>We are at the cusp of a bear market, with the bull-bear indicator declining to 60%. Stock pricing is also extreme, warning of the potential for large drawdowns.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The dial on the left indicates bull or bear market status, while the one on the right reflects stock market drawdown risk. Bull\/Bear Market The Bull\/Bear Market indicator improved to 60% from 40% three weeks ago after a significant revision to November heavy truck sales data. Two of the five indicators signal Risk-off: The Fed &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/12\/30\/weekly-stock-market-snapshot-11\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Weekly Stock Market Snapshot&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[37,34],"tags":[6681,6682],"class_list":["post-60149","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-active-investing","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-bull-bear-market-indicator","tag-stock-market-value-indicator"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Weekly Stock Market Snapshot - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Weekly Stock Market Snapshot - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The dial on the left indicates bull or bear market status, while the one on the right reflects stock market drawdown risk. Bull\/Bear Market The Bull\/Bear Market indicator improved to 60% from 40% three weeks ago after a significant revision to November heavy truck sales data. Two of the five indicators signal Risk-off: The Fed &hellip; Continue reading &quot;Weekly Stock Market Snapshot&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/12\/30\/weekly-stock-market-snapshot-11\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-12-30T02:26:46+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-12-06-bull-bear-gauge.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/12\/30\/weekly-stock-market-snapshot-11\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/12\/30\/weekly-stock-market-snapshot-11\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\"},\"headline\":\"Weekly Stock Market Snapshot\",\"datePublished\":\"2024-12-30T02:26:46+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/12\/30\/weekly-stock-market-snapshot-11\/\"},\"wordCount\":235,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/12\/30\/weekly-stock-market-snapshot-11\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-12-06-bull-bear-gauge.png\",\"keywords\":[\"Bull-Bear Market Indicator\",\"Stock Market Value Indicator\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Active Investing\",\"US &amp; Canada\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/12\/30\/weekly-stock-market-snapshot-11\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/12\/30\/weekly-stock-market-snapshot-11\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/12\/30\/weekly-stock-market-snapshot-11\/\",\"name\":\"Weekly Stock Market Snapshot - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/12\/30\/weekly-stock-market-snapshot-11\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/12\/30\/weekly-stock-market-snapshot-11\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-12-06-bull-bear-gauge.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2024-12-30T02:26:46+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/12\/30\/weekly-stock-market-snapshot-11\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/12\/30\/weekly-stock-market-snapshot-11\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/12\/30\/weekly-stock-market-snapshot-11\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-12-06-bull-bear-gauge.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-12-06-bull-bear-gauge.png\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/12\/30\/weekly-stock-market-snapshot-11\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Weekly Stock Market Snapshot\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. 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Three of the six leading indicators continue to signal risk-off, but the US bull-bear index (a 40% weighting)\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Bull-Bear Market Indicator","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-04-04-asx-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-04-04-asx-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-04-04-asx-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":60078,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/12\/21\/weekly-stock-market-snapshot-10\/","url_meta":{"origin":60149,"position":1},"title":"Weekly Stock Market Snapshot","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 21, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The dial on the left indicates bull or bear market status, while the one on the right reflects stock market drawdown risk. The higher that stock market pricing is relative to its historical mean, the greater the risk of a sharp drawdown. Bull\/Bear Market The Bull\/Bear Market indicator improved to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Active Investing&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Active Investing","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investing\/active-investing\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Bull\/Bear Market Indicator","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-12-06-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-12-06-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-12-06-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":61552,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/04\/26\/asx-weekly-market-indicators-3\/","url_meta":{"origin":60149,"position":2},"title":"ASX Weekly Market Indicators","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 26, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The dial on the left indicates bull or bear market status, while the one on the right reflects stock market drawdown risk. Bull\/Bear Market The ASX Bull-Bear Market indicator is at 46%, signaling a bear market. Three of the six leading indicators signal risk-off, while the US bull-bear index remains\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Bull-Bear Market Indicator","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-04-04-asx-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-04-04-asx-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-04-04-asx-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":61531,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/04\/19\/asx-weekly-market-indicators-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":60149,"position":3},"title":"ASX Weekly Market Indicators","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 19, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The dial on the left indicates bull or bear market status, while the one on the right reflects stock market drawdown risk. Bull\/Bear Market The ASX Bull-Bear Market indicator is at 46%, signaling a bear market. Three of the six leading indicators signal risk-off, while the US bull-bear index remains\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Bull-Bear Market Indicator","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-04-04-asx-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-04-04-asx-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-04-04-asx-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":61513,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/04\/12\/asx-weekly-market-indicators\/","url_meta":{"origin":60149,"position":4},"title":"ASX Weekly Market Indicators","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 12, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The dial on the left indicates bull or bear market status, while the one on the right reflects stock market drawdown risk. Bull\/Bear Market The ASX Bull-Bear Market indicator is at 46%, signaling a bear market. Three of the six leading indicators signal risk-off, while the US bull-bear index (a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Bull-Bear Market Indicator","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-04-04-asx-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-04-04-asx-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-04-04-asx-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":59440,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/11\/23\/weekly-market-snapshot-bear-signal\/","url_meta":{"origin":60149,"position":5},"title":"Weekly Market Snapshot &#8211; bear signal","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 23, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The above two dials provide a snapshot of our market view and attitude to risk. Bull\/Bear Market The Bull\/Bear Market indicator fell to 40% from 80% on Friday, November 9th. The most recent bear signal is heavy truck sales, which plunged to a seasonally adjusted 32.5 thousand units in October\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Active Investing&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Active Investing","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investing\/active-investing\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Bull\/Bear Market Indicator","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-11-22-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-11-22-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-11-22-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60149","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=60149"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60149\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":60150,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60149\/revisions\/60150"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=60149"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=60149"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=60149"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}