On Investment Time Horizons – Seeking Alpha<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"David Merkel observes that Shiller’s CAPE10 ratio and Tobin’s Q-ratio both “indicate that stocks are not likely to return a lot over the next 10 years”. The CAPE10 ratio is a long-term, smoothed PE-ratio first popularized by Yale Professor Robert Shiller in his book Irrational Exuberance. CAPE10 compares the current S&P 500 index value to … <\/p>\n
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Price-earnings ratio (PE) calculated using highest trailing earnings, surged to 22.5 in June -- well above the peaks from earlier crises like October 1929 (Black Friday) and October 1987 (Black Monday). 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Bull\/Bear Market The Bull\/Bear indicator remains at 60%, with two of five leading indicators signaling risk-off: The Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index declined to -0.51, reflecting strong\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "US & Canada"","block_context":{"text":"US & Canada","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/us-canada-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Bull\/Bear Market Indicator","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-09-us-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-09-us-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-09-us-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":9043,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/01\/26\/beware-of-the-cape\/","url_meta":{"origin":5995,"position":2},"title":"Beware of the CAPE","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"January 26, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"I have just read John Mauldin's warning that the market is overvalued: Not only does today's CAPE of 25.4x suggest a seriously overvalued market, but the rapid multiple expansion of the last few years coupled with sluggish earnings growth suggests that this market is also seriously overbought, as I pointed\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Stock Markets"","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"CAPE","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/mauldin-cape.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/mauldin-cape.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/mauldin-cape.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/mauldin-cape.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13708,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/01\/26\/beware-of-the-cape-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":5995,"position":3},"title":"Beware of the CAPE","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"January 26, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"I have just read John Mauldin's warning that the market is overvalued: Not only does today's CAPE of 25.4x suggest a seriously overvalued market, but the rapid multiple expansion of the last few years coupled with sluggish earnings growth suggests that this market is also seriously overbought, as I pointed\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Market Insights"","block_context":{"text":"Market Insights","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/market-insights\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"CAPE","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/mauldin-cape.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/mauldin-cape.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/mauldin-cape.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/mauldin-cape.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":62079,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/06\/28\/us-market-leading-indicators-6\/","url_meta":{"origin":5995,"position":4},"title":"US Market Leading Indicators","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 28, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The gauge on the left indicates bull or bear market status, while the right reflects stock market drawdown risk. Bull\/Bear Market The Bull\/Bear indicator remains at 60%, with two of five leading indicators signaling risk-off: Weekly continued claims increased to 1.974 million on June 14, warning that the labor market\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "US & Canada"","block_context":{"text":"US & Canada","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/us-canada-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Bull\/Bear Market Indicator","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-09-us-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-09-us-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-09-us-bull-bear-gauge.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":16039,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/12\/09\/cape-v-pemax-how-hot-are-market-valuations\/","url_meta":{"origin":5995,"position":5},"title":"CAPE v PEMAX: How hot are market valuations?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 9, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Robert Shiller's CAPE ratio is currently at 32.17, the second-highest peak in recorded history. 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Click here to view at multpl.com.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Quotes"","block_context":{"text":"Quotes","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/quotes\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5995","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5995"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5995\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5995"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5995"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5995"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}