{"id":5990,"date":"2012-11-03T16:00:10","date_gmt":"2012-11-03T20:00:10","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=5990"},"modified":"2012-11-03T16:00:10","modified_gmt":"2012-11-03T20:00:10","slug":"middle-income-traps-in-asian-countries-frbsf","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/11\/03\/middle-income-traps-in-asian-countries-frbsf\/","title":{"rendered":"Middle-income traps in Asian countries &#124; FRBSF"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Excerpt from a paper by Israel Malkin and Mark M. Spiegel at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. The two believe that China&#8217;s richest provinces, Beijing and Shanghai, are experiencing a slow-down in GDP growth (per capita) as they experience a classic middle-income trap, while China&#8217;s poorer provinces continue to experience high GDP growth rates.<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>What evidence exists for middle-income traps in a group of Asian economies that, like China, experienced episodes of rapid growth? We pool data for Hong Kong, Japan, Korea, and Taiwan from 1950 to 2009&#8230;&#8230;. growth of these economies slowed markedly after they reached middle-income status.<\/p>\n<p>Growth rates for these economies are highest just below the $10,000 per-capita-income level and then slow down rapidly as income increases. &#8230;..[the] economies grew on average at a 4.8% rate when per capita income reached $17,000, down from a high of 7.2% at the $7,800 level.<\/p>\n<p>Interestingly, the middle-income trap appears to arise in Asia at lower income levels than has been found for broader groups of emerging-market economies. It may be that large Asian countries with relatively low prevailing wages cause the dynamic of the middle-income trap to shift. In Asia, countries may begin to become uncompetitive for certain labor-intensive activities at lower income levels than in other parts of the world&#8230;&#8230;<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>via <a href='http:\/\/www.frbsf.org\/publications\/economics\/letter\/2012\/el2012-31.html'>FRBSF Economic Letter: Is China Due for a Slowdown? (2012-31, 10\/15\/2012)<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Excerpt from a paper by Israel Malkin and Mark M. Spiegel at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. The two believe that China&#8217;s richest provinces, Beijing and Shanghai, are experiencing a slow-down in GDP growth (per capita) as they experience a classic middle-income trap, while China&#8217;s poorer provinces continue to experience high GDP growth &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/11\/03\/middle-income-traps-in-asian-countries-frbsf\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Middle-income traps in Asian countries &#124; FRBSF&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[41,12,17],"tags":[229,663,1527,2303],"class_list":["post-5990","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-china-hk","category-india-singapore-countries-regions","category-japan-korea","tag-asia","tag-china","tag-gdp-growth","tag-middle-income-trap"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Middle-income traps in Asian countries &#124; FRBSF - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Middle-income traps in Asian countries &#124; FRBSF - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Excerpt from a paper by Israel Malkin and Mark M. Spiegel at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. The two believe that China&#8217;s richest provinces, Beijing and Shanghai, are experiencing a slow-down in GDP growth (per capita) as they experience a classic middle-income trap, while China&#8217;s poorer provinces continue to experience high GDP growth &hellip; Continue reading &quot;Middle-income traps in Asian countries &#124; FRBSF&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/11\/03\/middle-income-traps-in-asian-countries-frbsf\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2012-11-03T20:00:10+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2012\\\/11\\\/03\\\/middle-income-traps-in-asian-countries-frbsf\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2012\\\/11\\\/03\\\/middle-income-traps-in-asian-countries-frbsf\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\"},\"headline\":\"Middle-income traps in Asian countries &#124; FRBSF\",\"datePublished\":\"2012-11-03T20:00:10+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2012\\\/11\\\/03\\\/middle-income-traps-in-asian-countries-frbsf\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":224,\"commentCount\":1,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#organization\"},\"keywords\":[\"Asia\",\"China\",\"GDP growth\",\"middle-income trap\"],\"articleSection\":[\"China &amp; HK\",\"India &amp; Singapore\",\"Japan &amp; Korea\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2012\\\/11\\\/03\\\/middle-income-traps-in-asian-countries-frbsf\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2012\\\/11\\\/03\\\/middle-income-traps-in-asian-countries-frbsf\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2012\\\/11\\\/03\\\/middle-income-traps-in-asian-countries-frbsf\\\/\",\"name\":\"Middle-income traps in Asian countries &#124; FRBSF - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2012-11-03T20:00:10+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2012\\\/11\\\/03\\\/middle-income-traps-in-asian-countries-frbsf\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2012\\\/11\\\/03\\\/middle-income-traps-in-asian-countries-frbsf\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2012\\\/11\\\/03\\\/middle-income-traps-in-asian-countries-frbsf\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Middle-income traps in Asian countries &#124; FRBSF\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\\\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. 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The two believe that China&#8217;s richest provinces, Beijing and Shanghai, are experiencing a slow-down in GDP growth (per capita) as they experience a classic middle-income trap, while China&#8217;s poorer provinces continue to experience high GDP growth &hellip; Continue reading \"Middle-income traps in Asian countries &#124; FRBSF\"","og_url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/11\/03\/middle-income-traps-in-asian-countries-frbsf\/","og_site_name":"the patient investor","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810","article_author":"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","article_published_time":"2012-11-03T20:00:10+00:00","author":"Colin Twiggs","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Colin Twiggs","Est. reading time":"1 minute"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/11\/03\/middle-income-traps-in-asian-countries-frbsf\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/11\/03\/middle-income-traps-in-asian-countries-frbsf\/"},"author":{"name":"Colin Twiggs","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454"},"headline":"Middle-income traps in Asian countries &#124; FRBSF","datePublished":"2012-11-03T20:00:10+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/11\/03\/middle-income-traps-in-asian-countries-frbsf\/"},"wordCount":224,"commentCount":1,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization"},"keywords":["Asia","China","GDP growth","middle-income trap"],"articleSection":["China &amp; HK","India &amp; Singapore","Japan &amp; Korea"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/11\/03\/middle-income-traps-in-asian-countries-frbsf\/#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/11\/03\/middle-income-traps-in-asian-countries-frbsf\/","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/11\/03\/middle-income-traps-in-asian-countries-frbsf\/","name":"Middle-income traps in Asian countries &#124; FRBSF - the patient investor","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website"},"datePublished":"2012-11-03T20:00:10+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/11\/03\/middle-income-traps-in-asian-countries-frbsf\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/11\/03\/middle-income-traps-in-asian-countries-frbsf\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/11\/03\/middle-income-traps-in-asian-countries-frbsf\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Middle-income traps in Asian countries &#124; FRBSF"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/","name":"The Patient Investor","description":"Smart. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-1yC","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":3635,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/02\/27\/china-bystander-%e4%b8%ad%e5%9c%8b%e5%a4%96%e4%ba%ba-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":5990,"position":0},"title":"China Bystander: The middle-income trap | \u4e2d\u570b\u5916\u4eba","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"February 27, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"The arc of China\u2019s development is not that different from the rapid industrialization phase of countries such as South Korea, Japan or even, much earlier, western Europe and the U.S., even if the magnitude of China\u2019s arc is on an unprecedented scale. The country\u2019s well of cheap labor, transferred from\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":3586,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/02\/24\/treating-china-as-an-enemy-telegraph-blogs\/","url_meta":{"origin":5990,"position":1},"title":"Treating China as an enemy \u2013 Telegraph Blogs","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"February 24, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: China remains poor, with a per capita income of just $7,000. It faces the classic \"middle income trap\" in a few years time when the low-hanging fruit of catch-up growth is exhausted. The country will soon have to make the switch from copying technology to cutting-edge invention, the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":6030,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/11\/06\/is-china-more-legitimate-than-the-west-bbc\/","url_meta":{"origin":5990,"position":2},"title":"Is China more legitimate than the West? &#124; BBC","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 6, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"Economist Martin Jacques, author of When China Rules the World, sings the praises of China in BBC Point of View. \"Even though China is still a poor developing country, its state, I would argue, is the most competent in the world. Take infrastructure - the importance of which is belatedly\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":3726,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/03\/05\/chinas-growth-model-running-out-of-steam-ft-com\/","url_meta":{"origin":5990,"position":3},"title":"China\u2019s growth model running out of steam &#8211; FT.com","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"March 5, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"For the first time in eight years, the Chinese government\u2019s annual growth target has been lowered, to 7.5 per cent GDP growth for all of 2012..... The new number represents Beijing\u2019s recognition that the investment-driven, export-dependent growth model that has propelled it from an impoverished backwater to the world\u2019s second-largest\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":54477,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/06\/14\/54477\/","url_meta":{"origin":5990,"position":4},"title":"Australian households feel the pain","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 14, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Australian unemployment increased to 4.0% in May but that's not the full picture. Unemployment declined to 4.0% from 4.1% in April, but the trend increased to 4.0% from 3.9%. Increases remain low compared to pre-pandemic rates of unemployment. Underemployment and trend both remained steady at 6.7%. Again, rates are lower\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Unemployment","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-06-13-aus-u3.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-06-13-aus-u3.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-06-13-aus-u3.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":48609,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/02\/20\/will-the-rba-cut-first\/","url_meta":{"origin":5990,"position":5},"title":"Will the RBA cut first?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 20, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Recent articles in Macrobusiness and the ABC suggest that the RBA is likely to cut interest rates early, ahead of the Fed. Their conclusions are based on a February 16 research note by Gareth Aird at Commbank Divergence between the Australian and US consumer which provides some excellent charts: The\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Fed Funds Rate & RBA Cash Rate","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-20-ffr-rba.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-20-ffr-rba.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-20-ffr-rba.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5990","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5990"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5990\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5990"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5990"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5990"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}