{"id":59339,"date":"2024-11-19T09:39:18","date_gmt":"2024-11-19T09:39:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=59339"},"modified":"2024-11-19T09:39:18","modified_gmt":"2024-11-19T09:39:18","slug":"the-last-guardrail","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/11\/19\/the-last-guardrail\/","title":{"rendered":"The last guardrail"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"525\" height=\"296\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/qqEPiDE-Qqc?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=en-US&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span><\/p>\n<p>In the above ABC interview, Professor Nouriel Roubini said it would be interesting to watch Trump deal with financial markets:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>He said if Trump was &#8220;really serious&#8221; about 60 per cent tariffs on China, and 10 to 20 per cent tariffs on other trading partners, about sharply weakening the value of the US dollar, about &#8220;draconian restrictions&#8221; on migration and &#8220;mass deportation&#8221;, and about tax cuts that weren&#8217;t funded by raising other taxes or cutting spending, it could lead to situations Trump wouldn&#8217;t like.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;If he tries to follow these policies that are stagflationary, interest rates are going to be much higher, bond yields are going to be higher, the Fed will have to raise rates rather than cutting them, the stock market is going to correct,&#8221; he said.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;He cares about the bond market. He cares about the stock market. And therefore market discipline, as opposed to political discipline \u2026 [will] be the main constraint [for him].&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Long-term Treasury bonds continued their downtrend after November 5.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-11-18-tlt.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"iShares 20+Year Treasury Bond ETF\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Ten-year yields are testing resistance at 4.5%. A breakout above 4.5% would likely cause a correction in stocks.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-11-18-tnx.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"10-Year Treasury Yield\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Fears of rising inflation are not the only factor driving Treasury yields higher. Since 2020, Treasury issuance has been skewed towards short-dated T-bills, with the issuance of notes and bonds (green) kept as low as possible to suppress long-term yields.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-11-18-tbills.png?resize=525%2C335&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Treasury Issuance\" width=\"525\" height=\"335\" \/><\/p>\n<p>A study by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hudsonbaycapital.com\/documents\/FG\/hudsonbay\/research\/635102_Activist_Treasury_Issuance_-_Hudson_Bay_Capital_Research.pdf\">Hudson Bay Capital<\/a> concluded that rolling back the excess $1 trillion in T-bill issuance would cause a 50 basis point rise in the 10-year yield\u2014equivalent to a 2.0% rise in the Fed funds rate\u2014before settling at a permanent 30 basis point increase.<\/p>\n<p>Also, Fed QE almost exclusively focused on purchasing notes and bonds to keep long-term yields as low as possible. Reducing the Fed&#8217;s balance sheet through QT increases the supply of notes and bonds, driving long-term yields higher.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-11-18-fed-secs.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Fed Holdings of Treasury Notes &amp; Bonds and T-bills \" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Rising long-term yields constrain the S&amp;P 500, which is testing support at 5850. Breach would signal a correction to 5700.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-11-18-spx.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Financial Markets<\/h2>\n<p>Bitcoin remains above 90K, signaling strong liquidity in financial markets.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-11-18-btc.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Bitcoin (BTC)\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Dollar &amp; Gold<\/h2>\n<p>The Dollar index retraced to test support at its rising trendline, but breakout above 107 remains a threat, offering a target of 115.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-11-18-dxy.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Dollar Index\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Gold rallied off support at $2,550 per ounce. Penetration of the descending trendline at $2,650 would indicate a base forming.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-11-18-gold.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Spot Gold\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Silver similarly found support at $30 per ounce.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-11-18-silver.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Spot Silver\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Energy<\/h2>\n<p>Brent crude remains in a bear market, which is likely to keep inflation in check as long as global demand remains subdued.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-11-18-brent.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Brent Crude\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Base Metals<\/h2>\n<p>Copper also reflects weak global demand, with another likely test of support at $8,600 per tonne.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-11-18-cu.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Copper\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>Donald Trump&#8217;s election campaign was based on reviving a &#8220;weak&#8221; economy, which has proved surprisingly resilient. The Fed and Treasury succeeded in taming inflation without crashing the economy\u2014a rare feat. However, their efforts have built up imbalances in the financial system that lie in wait for the unwary.<\/p>\n<p>Stimulating an economy already close to full employment will inevitably cause higher inflation, preceded by a surge in long-term Treasury yields. The result would be a sharp fall in stock prices and a likely recession.<\/p>\n<p>The Republican party may control the House and the Senate, but the final guardrail is the bond market. They ignore that at their peril.<\/p>\n<p>Gold and silver fell as the Dollar soared in response to higher long-term Treasury yields. But yields are rising in anticipation of rising inflation. We remain bullish on gold and retain our $3,000 per ounce target.<\/p>\n<h4>Acknowledgments<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>Meyrick Chapman, Exorbitant Privilege: <a href=\"https:\/\/exorbitantprivilege.substack.com\/p\/short-term-parking\">Short-Term Parking<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Hudson Bay Capital: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hudsonbaycapital.com\/documents\/FG\/hudsonbay\/research\/635102_Activist_Treasury_Issuance_-_Hudson_Bay_Capital_Research.pdf\">Activist Treasury Issuance and the Tug-of-War Over Monetary Policy<\/a><\/li>\n<li>ABC: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.abc.net.au\/news\/2024-11-14\/nouriel-roubini-warns-trump-economics-slower-growth-inflation\/104596714\">Leading economist Nouriel Roubini warns Donald Trump&#8217;s economic policies could lead to slower economic growth and inflation<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Hans Lee, Livewire: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.livewiremarkets.com\/wires\/dr-doom-how-nouriel-roubini-is-thinking-about-markets-in-a-polycrisis\">How Nouriel Roubini is thinking about markets in a &#8216;polycrisis&#8217;<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In the above ABC interview, Professor Nouriel Roubini said it would be interesting to watch Trump deal with financial markets: He said if Trump was &#8220;really serious&#8221; about 60 per cent tariffs on China, and 10 to 20 per cent tariffs on other trading partners, about sharply weakening the value of the US dollar, about &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/11\/19\/the-last-guardrail\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;The last guardrail&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,44,6,9,13,34,35],"tags":[69,5056,495,815,1073,4306,6705,3010,3204,3206,4226,6704],"class_list":["post-59339","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-crude-oil-natural-gas","category-fixed-income","category-gold-precious-metals","category-inflation-economy","category-us-canada-countries-regions","category-us-dollar-index","tag-10-year-treasury-yield","tag-bitcoin-btc","tag-brent-crude","tag-copper","tag-dollar-index","tag-fed-qe","tag-ishares-20year-treasury-bond-etf","tag-sp-500","tag-spot-gold","tag-spot-silver","tag-t-bills","tag-treasury-notes-bonds"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The last guardrail - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The last guardrail - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In the above ABC interview, Professor Nouriel Roubini said it would be interesting to watch Trump deal with financial markets: He said if Trump was &#8220;really serious&#8221; 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-fr5","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":60682,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/02\/01\/tariff-news-causes-a-surge-in-gold\/","url_meta":{"origin":59339,"position":0},"title":"Tariff threat causes a surge in gold","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 1, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Markets reacted negatively to news that President Trump will impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico, with the S&P 500 retreating to test support at 6000. Trump said after the Comex market closed that the U.S. would proceed with plans to impose 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-01-31-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-01-31-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-01-31-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":59061,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/11\/06\/oops-bonds-forex-and-metals-markets-cast-their-vote\/","url_meta":{"origin":59339,"position":1},"title":"Oops &#8211; Bonds, forex, and metals markets get to vote","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 6, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Markets got an inkling of a surprise Trump win shortly after 6:00 p.m. last night. Ten-year Treasury yields jumped more than 20 basis points to 4.475% before retracing to test support. The US Dollar strengthened across the board.........against the Aussie Dollar. Against the Japanese Yen. The Chinese Yuan. And the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Aussie dollar&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Aussie dollar","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/forex\/aussie-dollar\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yield","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-11-06-10y.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-11-06-10y.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-11-06-10y.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":59161,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/11\/12\/bitcoin-tests-90000-while-gold-falls\/","url_meta":{"origin":59339,"position":2},"title":"Bitcoin tests $90,000 while gold falls","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 12, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Bitcoin soared to a new high of $88.8K on expectations of a favorable regulatory environment after Donald Trump takes office. Gold retreated to test support at $2,600 per ounce as the Dollar strengthened. The Dollar Index respected support at 104, signaling an advance to 106\u2014bearish for precious metals, commodities, and,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Bitcoin (BTC)","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-11-11-btc.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-11-11-btc.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-11-11-btc.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":62404,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/09\/09\/bond-yields-and-the-dollar-fall-as-gold-reaches-a-new-high\/","url_meta":{"origin":59339,"position":3},"title":"Bond yields and the dollar fall as gold reaches a new high","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 9, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points Long-term Treasury yields are falling steeply in anticipation of more Fed rate cuts as the economy slows. The S&P 500 is retracing to test short-term support at 6500. Financial market liquidity remains strong, supporting stocks. The dollar is weakening, and gold and silver soared to new highs. 10-year\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yield","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-08-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-08-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-08-tnx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":59408,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/11\/21\/a-ray-of-hope-for-us-treasury\/","url_meta":{"origin":59339,"position":4},"title":"A ray of hope for US Treasury","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 21, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"From Sam Sutton at Politico.com: The logjam over who will have a say in forging Donald Trump\u2019s economic agenda has finally started to break loose. Howard Lutnick, the CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald and co-chair of the president-elect\u2019s transition team, will lead the Commerce Department pending his confirmation by the Senate,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Kevin Warsh","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/kevin-warsh-300x212.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":62202,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/07\/30\/crude-jumps-on-sanctions-fears\/","url_meta":{"origin":59339,"position":5},"title":"Crude jumps on sanctions fears","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 30, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points Crude oil prices spiked on fears that increased US and EU sanctions on Russia will restrict supply Higher energy prices would likely increase inflationary pressures and deter further Fed rate cuts Brent crude broke through resistance at $70 due to fears that increased sanctions would restrict the flow\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Crude Oil &amp; Natural Gas","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/gold-commodities\/crude-oil-natural-gas\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Brent Crude","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-07-29-brent.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-07-29-brent.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-07-29-brent.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/59339","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=59339"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/59339\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":59346,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/59339\/revisions\/59346"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=59339"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=59339"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=59339"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}