{"id":58853,"date":"2024-10-31T08:19:37","date_gmt":"2024-10-31T08:19:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=58853"},"modified":"2024-10-31T08:20:12","modified_gmt":"2024-10-31T08:20:12","slug":"gdp-gradually-slowing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/10\/31\/gdp-gradually-slowing\/","title":{"rendered":"GDP gradually slowing"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Real GDP growth slowed slightly to 2.66% over the twelve months ending in Q3, compared to 3.04% for the previous quarter.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-30-realgdp.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Real GDP Growth\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Real quarterly growth is essentially unchanged at 0.70% (2.8% annualized) in Q3.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-30-gdp-real-q.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Nominal GDP &amp; Real GDP, Quarterly\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Nominal GDP growth (gray below) slowed to 4.94% for the four quarters ending in Q3. Ten-year Treasury yields are lower, indicating that monetary policy remains supportive.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-30-gdp-10y.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Nominal GDP &amp; 10-Year Treasury Yield\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" \/><\/p>\n<p>This is borne out by the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index at a low -0.56.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-30-nfci.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Credit markets also signal strong liquidity, with Moody&#8217;s Baa corporate bond spread narrowing to 1.49%.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-30-baa.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Moody's Baa Corporate Bond Spreads\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>Real GDP growth is slowing gradually, as expected during a rate-cut cycle. Financial market liquidity remains strong, and there is nothing particularly concerning.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Real GDP growth slowed slightly to 2.66% over the twelve months ending in Q3, compared to 3.04% for the previous quarter. Real quarterly growth is essentially unchanged at 0.70% (2.8% annualized) in Q3. Nominal GDP growth (gray below) slowed to 4.94% for the four quarters ending in Q3. Ten-year Treasury yields are lower, indicating that &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/10\/31\/gdp-gradually-slowing\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;GDP gradually slowing&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3761,34],"tags":[69,6622,2485,2870],"class_list":["post-58853","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-gdp-and-activity","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-10-year-treasury-yield","tag-chicago-fed-national-financial-conditions-index","tag-nominal-gdp","tag-real-gdp"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>GDP gradually slowing - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"GDP gradually slowing - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Real GDP growth slowed slightly to 2.66% over the twelve months ending in Q3, compared to 3.04% for the previous quarter. Real quarterly growth is essentially unchanged at 0.70% (2.8% annualized) in Q3. Nominal GDP growth (gray below) slowed to 4.94% for the four quarters ending in Q3. Ten-year Treasury yields are lower, indicating that &hellip; Continue reading &quot;GDP gradually slowing&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/10\/31\/gdp-gradually-slowing\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-10-31T08:19:37+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-10-31T08:20:12+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-30-realgdp.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2024\\\/10\\\/31\\\/gdp-gradually-slowing\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2024\\\/10\\\/31\\\/gdp-gradually-slowing\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\"},\"headline\":\"GDP gradually slowing\",\"datePublished\":\"2024-10-31T08:19:37+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-10-31T08:20:12+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2024\\\/10\\\/31\\\/gdp-gradually-slowing\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":111,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2024\\\/10\\\/31\\\/gdp-gradually-slowing\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2024\\\/2024-10-30-realgdp.png\",\"keywords\":[\"10-Year Treasury Yield\",\"Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index\",\"nominal GDP\",\"Real GDP\"],\"articleSection\":[\"GDP and Activity\",\"US &amp; Canada\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2024\\\/10\\\/31\\\/gdp-gradually-slowing\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2024\\\/10\\\/31\\\/gdp-gradually-slowing\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2024\\\/10\\\/31\\\/gdp-gradually-slowing\\\/\",\"name\":\"GDP gradually slowing - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2024\\\/10\\\/31\\\/gdp-gradually-slowing\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2024\\\/10\\\/31\\\/gdp-gradually-slowing\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2024\\\/2024-10-30-realgdp.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2024-10-31T08:19:37+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-10-31T08:20:12+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2024\\\/10\\\/31\\\/gdp-gradually-slowing\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2024\\\/10\\\/31\\\/gdp-gradually-slowing\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2024\\\/10\\\/31\\\/gdp-gradually-slowing\\\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2024\\\/2024-10-30-realgdp.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.incrediblecharts.com\\\/images\\\/2024\\\/2024-10-30-realgdp.png\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/index.php\\\/2024\\\/10\\\/31\\\/gdp-gradually-slowing\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"GDP gradually slowing\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/thepatientinvestor.com\\\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. 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He founded PVT Capital (AFSL number 546090), which provides income and growth strategies to wholesale clients. Colin also co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Patient Investor newsletter. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies macro trends in the global economy and then combines fundamental and technical analysis to evaluate opportunities in sectors that stand to benefit. 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He founded PVT Capital (AFSL number 546090), which provides income and growth strategies to wholesale clients. Colin also co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Patient Investor newsletter. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies macro trends in the global economy and then combines fundamental and technical analysis to evaluate opportunities in sectors that stand to benefit. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-fjf","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":64970,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/06\/18\/fed-keeps-rates-steady-but-stocks-fall\/","url_meta":{"origin":58853,"position":0},"title":"Fed Keeps Rates Steady But Stocks Fall","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 18, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points The new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, announced the FOMC would leave rates unchanged. Financial markets reacted to the meeting's hawkish tone, with the 2-year Treasury yield climbing to 4.17%. Inflation has been above the Fed's 2.0% target for more than 5 years, and inflationary pressures are growing. Kevin\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Fed Chair Kevin Warsh","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/kevin-warsh.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":65920,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/09\/15\/fed-rate-hike-else-10-year-ust-spike\/","url_meta":{"origin":58853,"position":1},"title":"Fed Rate Hike Else 10-Year Treasury Spikes","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 15, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points Brent Crude increased to $107 per barrel as the war with Iran escalates. Robin Brooks says that a rate hike at this week's FOMC meeting is \"a foregone conclusion.\" Rate hikes are necessary, but the new Fed Chair will struggle to convince President Trump. A failure to hike\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Brent Crude Futures (ICE November'26)","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-09-14-brent-nov26.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-09-14-brent-nov26.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-09-14-brent-nov26.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":62206,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/07\/31\/fed-stands-firm-so-does-boj\/","url_meta":{"origin":58853,"position":2},"title":"Fed stands firm, so does BOJ","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 31, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points The Fed held the funds rate target steady at 4.25% to 4.50% The Bank of Japan followed up, holding its policy rate steady at 0.5% The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average eased slightly The US Dollar Index jumped, weakening demand for gold Fed Chair Jerome Powell\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-07-30-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-07-30-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-07-30-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":47792,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/01\/27\/solid-q4-gdp-lifts-sp-500\/","url_meta":{"origin":58853,"position":3},"title":"Solid Q4 GDP lifts S&#038;P 500","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"January 27, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Easy monetary policy is supporting a robust US economy but there are signs that growth is slowing and investors remain cautious. The S&P 500 is testing resistance at 4900 -- a new high for the index. Trend Index troughs above zero signal strong buying pressure. Expect retracement to test the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-01-27-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-01-27-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-01-27-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":65802,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/09\/05\/when-good-news-is-bad-news-3\/","url_meta":{"origin":58853,"position":4},"title":"When Good News is Bad News","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 5, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points The BLS reports that the labor market gained 162,000 jobs in August. The 2-year Treasury yield spiked to 4.41% and the\u00a0S&P 500 fell by 0.4% to 7718.6. The US is running the economy hot in the hope this will fix its $40T debt problem. When good news is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Employment Growth","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-09-04-jobs.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-09-04-jobs.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-09-04-jobs.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":53285,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/05\/24\/sp-500-storm-in-a-teacup\/","url_meta":{"origin":58853,"position":5},"title":"S&#038;P 500 storm in a teacup","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 24, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Markets were spooked by \"hawkish\" comments in the latest FOMC minutes, where some participants indicated a willingness to tighten policy should such action become appropriate: Participants discussed maintaining the current restrictive policy stance for longer should inflation not show signs of moving sustainably toward 2 percent or reducing policy restraint\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-year Treasury Yield","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-05-23-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-05-23-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-05-23-tnx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/58853","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=58853"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/58853\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":58855,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/58853\/revisions\/58855"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=58853"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=58853"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=58853"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}