{"id":58853,"date":"2024-10-31T08:19:37","date_gmt":"2024-10-31T08:19:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=58853"},"modified":"2024-10-31T08:20:12","modified_gmt":"2024-10-31T08:20:12","slug":"gdp-gradually-slowing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/10\/31\/gdp-gradually-slowing\/","title":{"rendered":"GDP gradually slowing"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Real GDP growth slowed slightly to 2.66% over the twelve months ending in Q3, compared to 3.04% for the previous quarter.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-30-realgdp.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Real GDP Growth\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Real quarterly growth is essentially unchanged at 0.70% (2.8% annualized) in Q3.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-30-gdp-real-q.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Nominal GDP &amp; Real GDP, Quarterly\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Nominal GDP growth (gray below) slowed to 4.94% for the four quarters ending in Q3. Ten-year Treasury yields are lower, indicating that monetary policy remains supportive.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-30-gdp-10y.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Nominal GDP &amp; 10-Year Treasury Yield\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" \/><\/p>\n<p>This is borne out by the Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index at a low -0.56.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-30-nfci.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Credit markets also signal strong liquidity, with Moody&#8217;s Baa corporate bond spread narrowing to 1.49%.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-30-baa.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Moody's Baa Corporate Bond Spreads\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>Real GDP growth is slowing gradually, as expected during a rate-cut cycle. Financial market liquidity remains strong, and there is nothing particularly concerning.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Real GDP growth slowed slightly to 2.66% over the twelve months ending in Q3, compared to 3.04% for the previous quarter. Real quarterly growth is essentially unchanged at 0.70% (2.8% annualized) in Q3. Nominal GDP growth (gray below) slowed to 4.94% for the four quarters ending in Q3. Ten-year Treasury yields are lower, indicating that &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/10\/31\/gdp-gradually-slowing\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;GDP gradually slowing&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3761,34],"tags":[69,6622,2485,2870],"class_list":["post-58853","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-gdp-and-activity","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-10-year-treasury-yield","tag-chicago-fed-national-financial-conditions-index","tag-nominal-gdp","tag-real-gdp"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>GDP gradually slowing - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"GDP gradually slowing - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Real GDP growth slowed slightly to 2.66% over the twelve months ending in Q3, compared to 3.04% for the previous quarter. Real quarterly growth is essentially unchanged at 0.70% (2.8% annualized) in Q3. Nominal GDP growth (gray below) slowed to 4.94% for the four quarters ending in Q3. 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He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-fjf","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":62206,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/07\/31\/fed-stands-firm-so-does-boj\/","url_meta":{"origin":58853,"position":0},"title":"Fed stands firm, so does BOJ","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 31, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points The Fed held the funds rate target steady at 4.25% to 4.50% The Bank of Japan followed up, holding its policy rate steady at 0.5% The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average eased slightly The US Dollar Index jumped, weakening demand for gold Fed Chair Jerome Powell\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-07-30-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-07-30-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-07-30-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":47792,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/01\/27\/solid-q4-gdp-lifts-sp-500\/","url_meta":{"origin":58853,"position":1},"title":"Solid Q4 GDP lifts S&#038;P 500","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"January 27, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Easy monetary policy is supporting a robust US economy but there are signs that growth is slowing and investors remain cautious. The S&P 500 is testing resistance at 4900 -- a new high for the index. Trend Index troughs above zero signal strong buying pressure. Expect retracement to test the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-01-27-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-01-27-spx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-01-27-spx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":53285,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/05\/24\/sp-500-storm-in-a-teacup\/","url_meta":{"origin":58853,"position":2},"title":"S&#038;P 500 storm in a teacup","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 24, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Markets were spooked by \"hawkish\" comments in the latest FOMC minutes, where some participants indicated a willingness to tighten policy should such action become appropriate: Participants discussed maintaining the current restrictive policy stance for longer should inflation not show signs of moving sustainably toward 2 percent or reducing policy restraint\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-year Treasury Yield","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-05-23-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-05-23-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-05-23-tnx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":60671,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/01\/31\/strong-uptrends-and-new-highs-for-the-asx-200-and-gold\/","url_meta":{"origin":58853,"position":3},"title":"Strong uptrends and new highs for ASX 200 and gold","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"January 31, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"More weekly charts, which reflect the long-term trend rather than current volatility. The S&P 500 continues its strong uptrend, though there are signs that financial market liquidity may have peaked. Real GDP has grown at a steady 2.5% in 2024. Gold made a new high at $2,800 per ounce, with\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-01-30-spx-w.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-01-30-spx-w.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-01-30-spx-w.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":62212,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/08\/02\/weak-labor-report-hammers-stocks\/","url_meta":{"origin":58853,"position":4},"title":"Weak labor report hammers stocks","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 2, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points The S&P 500 and Dow fell sharply on the poor July jobs report Financial markets warn of easy credit conditions, which could lead to markets mispricing risk Real GDP growth is misleading due to the buildup of inventories in Q1, ahead of tariffs, and their subsequent rundown in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Employment Growth","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-04-jobs2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-04-jobs2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-04-jobs2.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":62492,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/09\/26\/dollar-rises-as-rate-cuts-rewind\/","url_meta":{"origin":58853,"position":5},"title":"Dollar rises as rate cuts unwind","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 26, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points The dollar has strengthened as the prospect of steep rate cuts fades. Gold is retracing to test support at $3,650 per ounce. However, secular trends in bonds, the dollar, and gold\/silver are unlikely to change. The US Dollar index broke resistance at 98 as traders unwind bets on\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Cryptocurrency&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Cryptocurrency","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/forex\/cryptocurrency\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Dollar Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-25-dxy.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-25-dxy.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-25-dxy.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/58853","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=58853"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/58853\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":58855,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/58853\/revisions\/58855"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=58853"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=58853"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=58853"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}