{"id":58703,"date":"2024-10-25T07:46:47","date_gmt":"2024-10-25T07:46:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=58703"},"modified":"2024-10-25T08:27:15","modified_gmt":"2024-10-25T08:27:15","slug":"mohamed-el-erian-the-west-should-pay-attention-to-rising-gold-prices","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/10\/25\/mohamed-el-erian-the-west-should-pay-attention-to-rising-gold-prices\/","title":{"rendered":"Mohamed El-Erian | The West should pay attention to rising gold prices"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"525\" height=\"296\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/Mmoe9SF47fI?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=en-US&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span><\/p>\n<h2>Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>Gold (orange below) has outperformed the S&amp;P 500 (blue) over the past three months. Long-term Treasuries (green), after leading both stocks and gold for the first six weeks, have plunged since the Fed announced a 50 basis point rate cut on September 18.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-24-gld-ivv-tlt.png?resize=525%2C404&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Gold (GLD), S&amp;P 500 (IVV), and 20+ Year Treasuries (TLT)\" width=\"525\" height=\"404\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Tight credit spreads, abundant liquidity, and solid growth are not usually a good time for the Fed to aggressively cut rates. The bond market reaction warns that financial markets are still wary of inflation and concerned that Jay Powell may have emulated Arthur Burns and cut too early.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-24-burns.png?resize=525%2C363&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Early rate cuts by the Fed under chair Arthur Burns led to a sharp rebound in inflation in the late 1970s\" width=\"525\" height=\"363\" \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Conclusion Gold (orange below) has outperformed the S&amp;P 500 (blue) over the past three months. Long-term Treasuries (green), after leading both stocks and gold for the first six weeks, have plunged since the Fed announced a 50 basis point rate cut on September 18. Tight credit spreads, abundant liquidity, and solid growth are not usually &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/10\/25\/mohamed-el-erian-the-west-should-pay-attention-to-rising-gold-prices\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Mohamed El-Erian | The West should pay attention to rising gold prices&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"video","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[45,9],"tags":[6687,1072,6475,1578,1828,3188],"class_list":["post-58703","post","type-post","status-publish","format-video","hentry","category-debt-levels","category-gold-precious-metals","tag-arthur-burns","tag-dollar","tag-global-reserve-currency","tag-gold-2","tag-inflation","tag-sovereign-debt","post_format-post-format-video"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Mohamed El-Erian | The West should pay attention to rising gold prices - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Mohamed El-Erian | The West should pay attention to rising gold prices - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Conclusion Gold (orange below) has outperformed the S&amp;P 500 (blue) over the past three months. Long-term Treasuries (green), after leading both stocks and gold for the first six weeks, have plunged since the Fed announced a 50 basis point rate cut on September 18. Tight credit spreads, abundant liquidity, and solid growth are not usually &hellip; Continue reading &quot;Mohamed El-Erian | The West should pay attention to rising gold prices&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/10\/25\/mohamed-el-erian-the-west-should-pay-attention-to-rising-gold-prices\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-10-25T07:46:47+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-10-25T08:27:15+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-24-gld-ivv-tlt.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/10\/25\/mohamed-el-erian-the-west-should-pay-attention-to-rising-gold-prices\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/10\/25\/mohamed-el-erian-the-west-should-pay-attention-to-rising-gold-prices\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\"},\"headline\":\"Mohamed El-Erian | The West should pay attention to rising gold prices\",\"datePublished\":\"2024-10-25T07:46:47+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2024-10-25T08:27:15+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/10\/25\/mohamed-el-erian-the-west-should-pay-attention-to-rising-gold-prices\/\"},\"wordCount\":112,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/10\/25\/mohamed-el-erian-the-west-should-pay-attention-to-rising-gold-prices\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-10-24-gld-ivv-tlt.png\",\"keywords\":[\"Arthur Burns\",\"dollar\",\"Global Reserve Currency\",\"Gold\",\"Inflation\",\"Sovereign Debt\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Debt Levels\",\"Gold &amp; 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Real (Aaa) bond yields above 5% indicate monetary tightening; below 2% indicate easing; while negative rates signal abandonment of monetary stability, high inflation and debasement of the Dollar. Significant eras of monetary policy are marked\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":24176,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/02\/20\/gold-stick-to-the-plan\/","url_meta":{"origin":58703,"position":1},"title":"Gold: Stick to the plan","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 20, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"The key to success in investing or trading is to have a plan and to stick to it -- unless there is clear evidence that the underlying assumptions are incorrect. Gold is testing long-term support, from November 2020, on the daily chart. Breach of support is likely, with a Trend\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":38318,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/10\/25\/the-fed-inflation-lessons-from-the-past\/","url_meta":{"origin":58703,"position":2},"title":"The Fed &#038; Inflation: Lessons from the past","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 25, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"In 1974, the Fed, under Chairman Arthur Burns, succumbed to political pressure from the White House and cut rates while inflation was still strong. The FOMC had hiked rates to contain a burst in inflation from the 1973 Middle East oil embargo but then cut too early -- from 12.9%\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Fed Funds Rate & CPI","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-10-24-cpi-ffr-70s.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-10-24-cpi-ffr-70s.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-10-24-cpi-ffr-70s.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":62431,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/09\/12\/powells-dilemma-monthly-cpi-above-4-0\/","url_meta":{"origin":58703,"position":3},"title":"Powell&#8217;s Dilemma: Monthly CPI above 4.0%","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 12, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points CPI and core CPI are grew at annualized rates above 4.0% in August. We expect the Fed to still cut rates in September despite the risk when unemployment is low. Long-term yields are falling, and the Dow climbed to a new high above 46,000, confirming the bull market.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"CPI & Core CPI - Annual","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-11-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-11-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-11-cpi.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":60444,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/01\/18\/the-long-game-dollar-gold-and-us-treasuries\/","url_meta":{"origin":58703,"position":4},"title":"The long game: The Dollar, Gold and US Treasuries","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"January 18, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"In the short term, the Fed and US Treasury manipulate the Dollar and US Treasury yields in an attempt to stimulate the economy while avoiding inflation. Foreign central banks also attempt to manipulate the Dollar to gain a trade advantage, which impacts the Treasury market. However, in the long term,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"CPI & Energy CPI","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-01-15-cpi-energy.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-01-15-cpi-energy.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-01-15-cpi-energy.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":62262,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/08\/09\/gold-inflation-and-the-third-rail\/","url_meta":{"origin":58703,"position":5},"title":"Gold, inflation and the third rail","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 9, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points Gold is testing resistance at $3,400 per ounce Core PCE inflation remains above the Fed's target The ISM services survey warns of a sharp increase in prices The CBO projects that the deficit will remain high, accelerating public debt growth Spot gold is consolidating in a bullish narrow\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Debt Levels&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Debt Levels","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/debt-levels\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Spot Gold","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-08-gold-m.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-08-gold-m.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-08-08-gold-m.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/58703","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=58703"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/58703\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":58706,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/58703\/revisions\/58706"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=58703"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=58703"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=58703"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}