{"id":5833,"date":"2012-10-24T03:15:00","date_gmt":"2012-10-24T07:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=5833"},"modified":"2012-10-24T03:15:00","modified_gmt":"2012-10-24T07:15:00","slug":"philadelphia-fed-september-up-turn-in-state-coincident-indicators","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/10\/24\/philadelphia-fed-september-up-turn-in-state-coincident-indicators\/","title":{"rendered":"Philadelphia Fed: September up-turn in state coincident indicators"},"content":{"rendered":"

September readings for the Philadelphia Fed survey of state coincident indicators are now out. The 3-Month Index has turned to follow the Monthly Index upward. Reversal of the Monthly Index below 80, however, would be cause for concern.<\/p>\n

\"Philadelphia<\/p>\n

When we look at the index over the last 30 years, down-turns of the Diffusion Index below 50 normally precede a recession. The only false signal (so far) was the recent 2011 dip of the Monthly Index (DI1) to 20 and the 3-Month Index (DI3) to 46.<\/p>\n

\"Philadelphia<\/p>\n

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia<\/a> calculates monthly coincident indexes for each of the 50 states. The coincident indexes combine four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions in a single statistic: nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary disbursements deflated by the consumer price index (U.S. city average). The trend for each state\u2019s index is set to the trend of its gross domestic product (GDP), so long-term growth in the state\u2019s index matches long-term growth in its GDP.<\/p>\n

For further details of Diffusion Index performance in predicting recessions, read Marking NBER Recessions with State Data<\/a> by Jason Novak (2008).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

September readings for the Philadelphia Fed survey of state coincident indicators are now out. The 3-Month Index has turned to follow the Monthly Index upward. Reversal of the Monthly Index below 80, however, would be cause for concern. When we look at the index over the last 30 years, down-turns of the Diffusion Index below … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Philadelphia Fed: September up-turn in state coincident indicators”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,34],"tags":[2657,3228],"class_list":["post-5833","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economy","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-philadelphia-fed","tag-state-coincident-indicators"],"yoast_head":"\nPhiladelphia Fed: September up-turn in state coincident indicators - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Philadelphia Fed: September up-turn in state coincident indicators - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"September readings for the Philadelphia Fed survey of state coincident indicators are now out. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-1w5","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":5590,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/09\/26\/philadelphia-fed-worrying-drop-in-state-coincident-indicators\/","url_meta":{"origin":5833,"position":0},"title":"Philadelphia Fed: Worrying drop in state coincident indicators","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 26, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"Tom Porcelli, economist at RBC Capital, points out a worrying drop in the Philadelphia Fed survey of state coincident indicators. The Monthly Index has turned up but the 3-Month Index continues downward. Reversal of the Monthly Index in the next few months would be cause for concern. When we look\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":16036,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/11\/19\/leading-index-gives-early-warning\/","url_meta":{"origin":5833,"position":1},"title":"Leading Index gives early warning","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 19, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"One of the better composite indicators in the US, the Leading Index from the Philadelphia Fed, points to a slow-down in the US economy. A dip below 1.0% is often early, as in July 2000 and May 2006, but serves as a reliable warning of an economic slow-down. The Leading\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":57696,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/09\/24\/bull-bear-market-indicator\/","url_meta":{"origin":5833,"position":2},"title":"Bull\/Bear Market Indicator","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 24, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"We aim to consolidate our economic and financial market analysis into a single quantifiable bull\/bear market indicator. We modified one of our five component market risk indicators to reduce whipsaws. Instead of the Fed Funds Rate confirmed by ISM Services Business Activity, we have created a composite indicator comprising: the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Active Investing"","block_context":{"text":"Active Investing","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investing\/active-investing\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Bull\/Bear Market Indicator","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-09-24-bull-bear.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-09-24-bull-bear.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-09-24-bull-bear.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":63878,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/03\/15\/we-expect-a-recession-in-2026\/","url_meta":{"origin":5833,"position":3},"title":"We Expect a Recession in 2026","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 15, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points Real GDP growth slowed to an annualized rate of less than 0.7%. Growth in the Philadelphia Fed Coincident Economic Activity Index slowed to just 1.84% in December. Real GDP growth slowed to just 0.16% in the fourth quarter of 2025, an annualized rate of less than 0.7%, according\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "GDP and Activity"","block_context":{"text":"GDP and Activity","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/gdp-and-activity\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Real GDP, Quarterly","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-13-realgdp2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-13-realgdp2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-03-13-realgdp2.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":11001,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/09\/27\/market-turbulence\/","url_meta":{"origin":5833,"position":4},"title":"Market turbulence","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"September 27, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"A Coincident Economic Activity Index above 0.2 indicates the US recovery is on track. Produced by the Philadelphia Fed, the index includes four indicators: nonfarm payroll employment, the unemployment rate, average hours worked in manufacturing, and wages and salaries. Bellwether stock Fedex also suggests rising economic activity. But contraction of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Coincident Economic Activity Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-09-27-coincident.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-09-27-coincident.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-09-27-coincident.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13743,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/09\/27\/market-turbulence-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":5833,"position":5},"title":"Market turbulence","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"September 27, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"A Coincident Economic Activity Index above 0.2 indicates the US recovery is on track. Produced by the Philadelphia Fed, the index includes four indicators: nonfarm payroll employment, the unemployment rate, average hours worked in manufacturing, and wages and salaries. Bellwether stock Fedex also suggests rising economic activity. But contraction of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Market Insights"","block_context":{"text":"Market Insights","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/market-insights\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Coincident Economic Activity Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-09-27-coincident.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-09-27-coincident.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-09-27-coincident.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5833","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5833"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5833\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5833"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5833"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5833"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}