{"id":57903,"date":"2024-10-01T09:32:02","date_gmt":"2024-10-01T09:32:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=57903"},"modified":"2024-10-01T11:09:36","modified_gmt":"2024-10-01T11:09:36","slug":"chinas-manufacturing-contraction","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/10\/01\/chinas-manufacturing-contraction\/","title":{"rendered":"China’s manufacturing contraction"},"content":{"rendered":"

China faces growing push-back from trading partners in its efforts to export its way out of a recession. Dumping excess production in export markets has provoked increased tariffs on manufactured goods such as EVs and commodities such as steel. Declining demand in export markets caused a sharp fall in the Caixin\/S&P Global manufacturing PMI for September, with the New Orders sub-index falling to its lowest level in two years.<\/p>\n

\"Caixin\/S&P<\/p>\n

BEIJING, Sept 30 (Reuters<\/a>) – China’s manufacturing activity shrank sharply in September as new orders at home and abroad cooled, pulling down factory owners’ confidence to near record lows, a private-sector survey showed on Monday. The Caixin\/S&P Global manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3 in September from 50.4 the previous month, missing analysts’ forecasts in a Reuters poll of 50.5. The reading marked the lowest since July last year.<\/p>\n

…Even though production expanded for the 11th straight month in September, new orders fell significantly from August’s gain. The sub-index of new orders was the lowest in two years.
\nWhile exports have been a bright spot for the economy, new orders from abroad declined at the fastest pace since August last year. Chinese manufacturers said that a deterioration in foreign demand led to the fall in export orders.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Stimulus<\/h2>\n

George Magnus, former UBS chief economist, author, and commentator on China, writes that Chinese authorities are clearly spooked<\/a>:<\/p>\n

Early last week, the authorities announced the biggest monetary policy stimulus since Covid, comprising interest rate and mortgage rate cuts, reductions in the downpayment for second homes, additional help for state enterprises to buy unsold homes, and 800 billion yuan ($113 billion, \u00a385 billion) of liquidity facilities to allow non-bank financial firms to buy equities and listed firms to buy back their own shares. A 1 trillion yuan ($142 billion, \u00a3106 billion) bank re-capitalisation program is also considered likely.<\/p>\n

These measures were rocket fuel for stock markets, favouring not least the state enterprises and institutions that constitute much of the ownership of shares. Yet, while the measures generally may bring temporary relief, they will not really boost the economy much. China\u2019s economic problems are not due to interest rates being too high, a shortage of liquidity, or credit supply constraints and China\u2019s property market needs much more than patchy support designed to stop it from adjusting to decades of overbuilding and a bursting bubble.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

There are some positives, Magnus notes:<\/p>\n

The government is expected to announce during or soon after the Golden Week holiday in the first week of October, a 2 trillion yuan ($284 billion, \u00a3212 billion) borrowing programme, split roughly equally between measures to support consumption, and help to alleviate local government indebtedness problems.<\/p>\n

The latter amounts to a shift in a limited amount of debt ownership from local to central government, which Beijing has previously railed against, but which is more financial engineering than economic stimulus. The consumption part, however, could have a more meaningful impact. Some is about extending the hitherto sparsely used new-for-old trade-in support for consumer durables and business equipment upgrades. At best this borrows future consumption. The reported introduction of a monthly 800 yuan ( $113, \u00a385) child benefit payment for all but first children, equivalent to about 30 per cent of median post tax monthly income, could certainly give household consumption a shot in the arm.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Stock Market Rally<\/h2>\n

The Shanghai Composite has made an impressive rally since the announcement.<\/p>\n

\"Shanghai<\/p>\n

Shadowed by a similar move on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index.<\/p>\n

\"Hang<\/p>\n

Industrial Metals<\/h2>\n

Copper broke resistance at $9,500 per tonne after an initial rally caused by a spike in AI data center construction in the US.<\/p>\n

\"Copper\"<\/p>\n

Alumini=um shows a similar breakout, above $2,500 per tonne.<\/p>\n

\"Aluminum\"<\/p>\n

Iron ore so far shows a muted response.<\/p>\n

\"Iron<\/p>\n

Crude Oil<\/h2>\n

Brent crude remains solidly in a bear market.<\/p>\n

\"Brent<\/p>\n

Conclusion<\/h2>\n

Efforts to revive business investment by lowering interest rates are unlikely to have much of a long-term effect when the underlying problem is a shortage in domestic consumption. The private sector will be reluctant to invest when industries already suffer from overcapacity due to insufficient demand.<\/p>\n

Overcapacity will also likely worsen as export orders decline due to increased tariffs from trading partners.<\/p>\n

Measures to boost consumption through old-for-new “cash for clunkers” exchanges and child benefit programs are a step in the right direction. However, the roughly 1 trillion yuan ($142 billion) is a drop in the ocean compared to the scale required.<\/p>\n

Most of the announced stimulus is aimed at papering over the cracks and meeting short-term GDP targets rather than the fundamental change in direction needed to address the underlying consumption deficit.<\/p>\n

We expect short-term relief to be followed by a resumption of the deflationary contraction.<\/p>\n

Acknowledgments<\/h4>\n