{"id":57869,"date":"2024-09-29T23:24:45","date_gmt":"2024-09-29T23:24:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=57869"},"modified":"2024-10-04T01:38:04","modified_gmt":"2024-10-04T01:38:04","slug":"the-great-pumpkin-eric-cinnamond","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/09\/29\/the-great-pumpkin-eric-cinnamond\/","title":{"rendered":"The Great Pumpkin | Eric Cinnamond"},"content":{"rendered":"

Great stock market analogy from Eric Cinnamond at Palm Valley Capital<\/a>:<\/p>\n

As a kid I always looked forward to Halloween. Growing up in a health-conscious \u201cno sweets\u201d household, Halloween was an opportunistic time to load up on my favorite chocolate bars and candy. If I played my bag of treats right, my sweet tooth could be satisfied until Christmas!<\/p>\n

Another thing I enjoyed about Halloween was the television special, It\u2019s the Great Pumpkin, Charlie Brown<\/em>. It was and remains a classic. Released in 1966, the Peanuts special follows its cast members as they celebrate Halloween. Some of the Peanuts crew go trick-or-treating, while others attend a party. But not Linus\u2014he does his own thing.<\/p>\n

Instead of celebrating with his friends, Linus spends his Halloween waiting in a pumpkin patch for the Great Pumpkin. According to Linus, \u201cOn Halloween night, the Great Pumpkin rises from his pumpkin patch and flies through the air with his bag of toys to all the children.\u201d Unfortunately, the Great Pumpkin never arrives, and Linus is ridiculed by his friends. He\u2019s even called a blockhead! <\/p>\n

Our belief in full market cycles, including a bull and bear market, is beginning to feel more and more like Linus\u2019s belief in the Great Pumpkin. However, instead of pumpkins, we sit in a patch of T-bills waiting for the return of sensible equity valuations. And rather than bringing a bag of toys, we expect this cycle\u2019s Great Pumpkin (bear market) will bring patient investors the gift of lower prices and opportunity. <\/p>\n

From the outside looking in, believing in full market cycles, bear markets, and even recessions, probably looks foolish. To some, we might even look like blockheads! Nevertheless, we continue to believe equity valuations are very expensive, exposing investors to considerable risk. In fact, we consider this stage of the market cycle to be an asset bubble\u2014the third stock market bubble of our careers. The first two bubbles were verified by significant losses, with the S&P 500 losing half of its value during both bear markets (2000-2002 -49% and 2007-2009 -56%).<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Our latest page on stock market valuation<\/a> supports his view:<\/p>\n

\"Stock<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Great stock market analogy from Eric Cinnamond at Palm Valley Capital: As a kid I always looked forward to Halloween. Growing up in a health-conscious \u201cno sweets\u201d household, Halloween was an opportunistic time to load up on my favorite chocolate bars and candy. If I played my bag of treats right, my sweet tooth could … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “The Great Pumpkin | Eric Cinnamond”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[57,34],"tags":[509,6329,6673,6674],"class_list":["post-57869","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stock-markets","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-bubble","tag-eric-cinnamond","tag-stock-market-valuation","tag-the-great-pumpkin"],"yoast_head":"\nThe Great Pumpkin | Eric Cinnamond - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Great Pumpkin | Eric Cinnamond - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Great stock market analogy from Eric Cinnamond at Palm Valley Capital: As a kid I always looked forward to Halloween. Growing up in a health-conscious \u201cno sweets\u201d household, Halloween was an opportunistic time to load up on my favorite chocolate bars and candy. 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I\u2019m not even sure I\u2019d call it a town \u2013 more like a zip code. We lived in a subdivision with five acre lots and gravel roads.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Active Investing"","block_context":{"text":"Active Investing","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/investing\/active-investing\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":48873,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/02\/22\/the-blue-and-yellow-can-eric-cinnamond\/","url_meta":{"origin":57869,"position":1},"title":"The Blue and Yellow Can | Eric Cinnamond","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 22, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"This excellent post from Eric Cinnamond at Palm Valley Capital sums up the challenges facing value investors in our post-QE world: Last week my son and I went for a bike ride. 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This chart from S&P Dow\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500 Buybacks","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-10-31-spx-buybacks.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-10-31-spx-buybacks.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-10-31-spx-buybacks.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":37789,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/09\/28\/the-great-repricing\/","url_meta":{"origin":57869,"position":3},"title":"The Great Repricing","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 28, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"\"I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or as a .400 baseball hitter. But now I would like to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody.\" ~ James Carville The bond market is stirring.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"3-Month Treasury Bill Discount Rate","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-09-28-3m.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-09-28-3m.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-09-28-3m.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":12682,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2015\/12\/06\/the-great-asx-sclerosis-gerard-minack\/","url_meta":{"origin":57869,"position":4},"title":"The great ASX sclerosis | Gerard Minack","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"December 6, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"Excellent summary by Gerard Minack of headwinds facing the ASX: Excluding miners, the listed sector enjoyed 15%-plus annual sales growth last cycle; now nominal sales growth is less than one-third that pace.... Structurally lower domestic sales, combined with the stress in the resource sector \u2013 which, in my view, is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Stock Markets"","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":7821,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/06\/01\/the-7-reasons-why-people-hate-qe-eric-parnell\/","url_meta":{"origin":57869,"position":5},"title":"The 7 Reasons Why People Hate QE | Eric Parnell","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"June 1, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"Excellent article by Eric Parnell sets out the negative impacts of quantitative easing (QE): ...the Fed has dramatically expanded its policy scope into areas that are normally the territory of fiscal policy. This has included specifically targeting selected areas of the economy such as the U.S. housing market including the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57869","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=57869"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57869\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":57873,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/57869\/revisions\/57873"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=57869"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=57869"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=57869"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}