{"id":5766,"date":"2012-10-15T21:28:43","date_gmt":"2012-10-16T01:28:43","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=5766"},"modified":"2012-10-15T21:28:43","modified_gmt":"2012-10-16T01:28:43","slug":"australias-future-fiscal-shock-centre-for-independent-studies","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/10\/15\/australias-future-fiscal-shock-centre-for-independent-studies\/","title":{"rendered":"Australia\u2019s Future Fiscal Shock &#124; Centre For Independent Studies"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>by Robert Carling<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Long-term prospects for Australia\u2019s public finances are not receiving the attention they deserve. It is one thing for Commonwealth and state governments to balance their budgets in the short term, as they are attempting to do, but spending commitments are being made as though nothing beyond the four-year horizon of the forward estimates matters. Under current policies, Australia is heading in the long term for a substantially larger share of government spending in the economy, which will bring pressures for higher taxation or borrowing or both. Spending by governments at all levels as a proportion of gross domestic product (GDP) (currently around 36%) could rise to well above 40% over the decades ahead, if not sooner&#8230;&#8230;.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>via <a href='http:\/\/www.cis.org.au\/images\/stories\/issue-analysis\/ia134.pdf'>Australia\u2019s Future Fiscal Shock (pdf)<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>by Robert Carling Long-term prospects for Australia\u2019s public finances are not receiving the attention they deserve. It is one thing for Commonwealth and state governments to balance their budgets in the short term, as they are attempting to do, but spending commitments are being made as though nothing beyond the four-year horizon of the forward &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/10\/15\/australias-future-fiscal-shock-centre-for-independent-studies\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Australia\u2019s Future Fiscal Shock &#124; Centre For Independent Studies&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,5],"tags":[1404,1413],"class_list":["post-5766","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia-nz-countries-regions","category-economy","tag-fiscal-austerity","tag-fiscal-profligacy"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Australia\u2019s Future Fiscal Shock &#124; Centre For Independent Studies - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Australia\u2019s Future Fiscal Shock &#124; Centre For Independent Studies - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"by Robert Carling Long-term prospects for Australia\u2019s public finances are not receiving the attention they deserve. It is one thing for Commonwealth and state governments to balance their budgets in the short term, as they are attempting to do, but spending commitments are being made as though nothing beyond the four-year horizon of the forward &hellip; Continue reading &quot;Australia\u2019s Future Fiscal Shock &#124; Centre For Independent Studies&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/10\/15\/australias-future-fiscal-shock-centre-for-independent-studies\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2012-10-16T01:28:43+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/10\/15\/australias-future-fiscal-shock-centre-for-independent-studies\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/10\/15\/australias-future-fiscal-shock-centre-for-independent-studies\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\"},\"headline\":\"Australia\u2019s Future Fiscal Shock &#124; Centre For Independent Studies\",\"datePublished\":\"2012-10-16T01:28:43+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/10\/15\/australias-future-fiscal-shock-centre-for-independent-studies\/\"},\"wordCount\":134,\"commentCount\":7,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization\"},\"keywords\":[\"fiscal austerity\",\"fiscal profligacy\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Australia &amp; NZ\",\"Economy\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/10\/15\/australias-future-fiscal-shock-centre-for-independent-studies\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/10\/15\/australias-future-fiscal-shock-centre-for-independent-studies\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/10\/15\/australias-future-fiscal-shock-centre-for-independent-studies\/\",\"name\":\"Australia\u2019s Future Fiscal Shock &#124; Centre For Independent Studies - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2012-10-16T01:28:43+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/10\/15\/australias-future-fiscal-shock-centre-for-independent-studies\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/10\/15\/australias-future-fiscal-shock-centre-for-independent-studies\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/10\/15\/australias-future-fiscal-shock-centre-for-independent-studies\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Australia\u2019s Future Fiscal Shock &#124; Centre For Independent Studies\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.\",\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\",\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor\",\"https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs\"],\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Australia\u2019s Future Fiscal Shock &#124; Centre For Independent Studies - the patient investor","robots":{"index":"noindex","follow":"follow"},"og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Australia\u2019s Future Fiscal Shock &#124; Centre For Independent Studies - the patient investor","og_description":"by Robert Carling Long-term prospects for Australia\u2019s public finances are not receiving the attention they deserve. It is one thing for Commonwealth and state governments to balance their budgets in the short term, as they are attempting to do, but spending commitments are being made as though nothing beyond the four-year horizon of the forward &hellip; Continue reading \"Australia\u2019s Future Fiscal Shock &#124; Centre For Independent Studies\"","og_url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/10\/15\/australias-future-fiscal-shock-centre-for-independent-studies\/","og_site_name":"the patient investor","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810","article_author":"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","article_published_time":"2012-10-16T01:28:43+00:00","author":"Colin Twiggs","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Colin Twiggs","Est. reading time":"1 minute"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/10\/15\/australias-future-fiscal-shock-centre-for-independent-studies\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/10\/15\/australias-future-fiscal-shock-centre-for-independent-studies\/"},"author":{"name":"Colin Twiggs","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454"},"headline":"Australia\u2019s Future Fiscal Shock &#124; Centre For Independent Studies","datePublished":"2012-10-16T01:28:43+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/10\/15\/australias-future-fiscal-shock-centre-for-independent-studies\/"},"wordCount":134,"commentCount":7,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization"},"keywords":["fiscal austerity","fiscal profligacy"],"articleSection":["Australia &amp; NZ","Economy"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/10\/15\/australias-future-fiscal-shock-centre-for-independent-studies\/#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/10\/15\/australias-future-fiscal-shock-centre-for-independent-studies\/","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/10\/15\/australias-future-fiscal-shock-centre-for-independent-studies\/","name":"Australia\u2019s Future Fiscal Shock &#124; Centre For Independent Studies - the patient investor","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website"},"datePublished":"2012-10-16T01:28:43+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/10\/15\/australias-future-fiscal-shock-centre-for-independent-studies\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/10\/15\/australias-future-fiscal-shock-centre-for-independent-studies\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/10\/15\/australias-future-fiscal-shock-centre-for-independent-studies\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Australia\u2019s Future Fiscal Shock &#124; Centre For Independent Studies"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/","name":"The Patient Investor","description":"Smart. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-1v0","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":6157,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/11\/13\/australia-not-fiscal-cliff-fiscal-flab\/","url_meta":{"origin":5766,"position":0},"title":"Australia: Not fiscal cliff &#8212; fiscal flab","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 13, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"Jessica Irvine writes that Australia is faced with an aging population and spiraling health costs, but a free-spending government will leave us unprepared. Two veteran Budget forecasting groups, Deloitte Access Economics and Macroeconomics, have in recent days delivered their verdict on Mr Swan's mid-year Budget update: It's codswallop. The Federal\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":54068,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/06\/07\/australian-outlook-chris-joye\/","url_meta":{"origin":5766,"position":1},"title":"Australian Outlook | Chris Joye","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 7, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"https:\/\/youtu.be\/QTKmPptmOes?si=UdsJVYNsO8c9KBQb Central banks are too much under the sway of government and not doing enough to contain inflation. None worse than the RBA which is holding rates lower than they should be. The last time that we had inflation at 4.0% in 2008, the cash rate was 7.25%. Now the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/img.youtube.com\/vi\/QTKmPptmOes\/0.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":62357,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/09\/10\/gold-flags-a-secular-bear-market-in-bonds\/","url_meta":{"origin":5766,"position":2},"title":"Gold flags a secular bear market in bonds","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 10, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points Government bonds sell at inflated prices as central banks suppress long-term yields. Long-term yields are in a cyclical downtrend, driven by speculators. However, long-term bonds are in a secular bear market fueled by fiscal instability and a rising threat of inflation. International capital flows will also dry up\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Combined Assets of the Fed, ECB, BOJ, and PBOC","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-03-cb-assets.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-03-cb-assets.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-09-03-cb-assets.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13220,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/04\/28\/carl-icahn-warns-wall-street-of-day-of-reckoning\/","url_meta":{"origin":5766,"position":3},"title":"Carl Icahn warns of &#8216;day of reckoning&#8217;","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"April 28, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"Reuters: Billionaire activist investor Carl Icahn ..... said he was \"still very cautious\" on the US stock market and there would be a \"day of reckoning\" unless there was some sort of fiscal stimulus. .....Icahn, who owned 45.8 million Apple shares at the end of last year, said China's economic\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":14958,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/03\/14\/australia-dont-expect-a-repeat-of-the-last-boom\/","url_meta":{"origin":5766,"position":4},"title":"Australia: Don&#8217;t expect a repeat of the last boom","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"March 14, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Gerard Minack, courtesy of Macrobusiness, explains why the recent rise in commodity prices will not result in a repeat of the last boom. There are two main ways the last commodity boom boosted domestic activity. Neither seems likely to be repeated now. The first is that the mining sector lifted\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":61640,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/05\/12\/the-end-of-american-exceptionalism\/","url_meta":{"origin":5766,"position":5},"title":"The End of American Exceptionalism","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 12, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Summary The myth of American exceptionalism is fading Decades-long international capital flows into US financial markets are reversing The US outperformed its peers because it ran bigger deficits Large deficits cause long-term inflation Ballooning federal debt undermines confidence in US Treasury markets Cutting the deficit will likely reduce economic growth\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Debt Levels&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Debt Levels","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/debt-levels\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"DJ US Index ($DJUS) & DJ World ex-US ($W2DOW)","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-12-djus-w2-5y.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-12-djus-w2-5y.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-12-djus-w2-5y.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5766","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5766"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5766\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5766"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5766"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5766"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}