{"id":5719,"date":"2012-10-08T22:03:06","date_gmt":"2012-10-09T02:03:06","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=5719"},"modified":"2012-10-08T22:03:06","modified_gmt":"2012-10-09T02:03:06","slug":"the-unemployment-surprise","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/10\/08\/the-unemployment-surprise\/","title":{"rendered":"The unemployment surprise"},"content":{"rendered":"

Headline unemployment may be falling but this extract from John Mauldin summarises the US predicament:<\/p>\n

We are employing almost 5% fewer people as a percentage of our population than we were at the beginning of 2008. That means our real unemployment-to-population level is well over 12%. So we\u2019re not even close to where we were in 1999, during the last year of the Clinton administration. And that doesn\u2019t take into account the 50% of college graduates who are underemployed. A significant part of the problem is simply the fact that we are trying to recover from a deleveraging recession. The data suggests that such recoveries may take 10 years. For Japan it is more than 20 years, and counting.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The unemployment surprise (pdf)<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Headline unemployment may be falling but this extract from John Mauldin summarises the US predicament: We are employing almost 5% fewer people as a percentage of our population than we were at the beginning of 2008. That means our real unemployment-to-population level is well over 12%. So we\u2019re not even close to where we were … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “The unemployment surprise”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,34],"tags":[993,2049,3529,3531],"class_list":["post-5719","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economy","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-deleveraging","tag-labor-force-participation","tag-underemployment","tag-unemployment"],"yoast_head":"\nThe unemployment surprise - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The unemployment surprise - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Headline unemployment may be falling but this extract from John Mauldin summarises the US predicament: We are employing almost 5% fewer people as a percentage of our population than we were at the beginning of 2008. 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At its nadir in the winter of 1933, the Great Depression was a form of collective insanity. Workers were idle because firms would not hire them; firms would not hire\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":10430,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/07\/28\/is-unemployment-really-falling\/","url_meta":{"origin":5719,"position":1},"title":"Is unemployment really falling?","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"July 28, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"US unemployment has fallen close to the Fed's \"natural unemployment rate\" of close to 5.5%. Does that mean that all is well? Chart: The unemployment rate vs. Fed's measure of \"natural\" unemployment rate (NAIRU) over the past 20 years - pic.twitter.com\/zq2fxtcHLt\u2014 SoberLook.com (@SoberLook) July 28, 2014 Not if we consider\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Deficit Spending & Employment"","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending & Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Employment Participation Rate","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-07-29-emp-participation.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-07-29-emp-participation.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-07-29-emp-participation.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":35713,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/07\/14\/interest-rate-hopes-dashed-as-cpi-climbs\/","url_meta":{"origin":5719,"position":2},"title":"Interest rate hopes dashed as CPI climbs","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 14, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The hoped for dip in consumer price index growth has not materialized, with CPI growing at 9.06% for the 12 months to June. 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CPI Shelter is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"CPI","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-07-14-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-07-14-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-07-14-cpi.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-07-14-cpi.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":41007,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/02\/25\/core-pce-surprise\/","url_meta":{"origin":5719,"position":3},"title":"Core PCE surprise","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 25, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The Fed's preferred measure of long-term inflation, the Core Personal Consumption Price Index which excludes food and energy, stepped up to 4.7% for the 12 months to January. This goes against Chairman Jerome Powell's recent talk of disinflation. More alarming is the jump in the monthly measure of Core PCE\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Deficit Spending & Employment"","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending & Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"PCE & Core PCE Price Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-02-25-corepce.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-02-25-corepce.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-02-25-corepce.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":63005,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/11\/04\/rba-trapped-by-rising-unemployment-and-inflation\/","url_meta":{"origin":5719,"position":4},"title":"RBA trapped by rising unemployment and inflation","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 4, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points The RBA maintained the cash rate at 3.6%. 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The RBA held rates steady at 3.6%, citing the recent upturn in inflation.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Australia: Job Ads","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-03-aus-jobads.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-03-aus-jobads.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-11-03-aus-jobads.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":11219,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/10\/29\/surprising-lack-of-inflation-as-unemployment-falls-bank-of-england\/","url_meta":{"origin":5719,"position":5},"title":"Surprising lack of inflation as unemployment falls | Bank of England","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"October 29, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Sir Jon Cunliffe, Deputy Governor for Financial Stability at the Bank of England: \u201cThe big surprise, therefore, for the [Monetary Policy Committee] \u2026 has been the extent to which employment has been able to grow without generating more inflationary pressure through higher pay increases. 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