{"id":5582,"date":"2012-09-25T22:47:51","date_gmt":"2012-09-26T02:47:51","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=5582"},"modified":"2012-09-25T22:47:51","modified_gmt":"2012-09-26T02:47:51","slug":"tim-harford-dont-take-growth-for-granted","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/09\/25\/tim-harford-dont-take-growth-for-granted\/","title":{"rendered":"Tim Harford \u2014 Don\u2019t take growth for granted"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>By Tim Harford<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Economic growth is a modern invention: 20th-century growth rates were far higher than those in the 19th century, and pre-1750 growth rates were almost imperceptible by modern standards. Many have seen this as an encouraging trend, but [economist Robert Gordon] draws a different lesson: growth is a recent phenomenon, so why assume that it will last?<\/p>\n<p>&#8230;&#8230;Demographics and debt accumulation have both speeded up growth in the past and, as the pendulum swings back, demographics and debt repayment will reduce it in the future&#8230;&#8230;.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>via <a href='http:\/\/timharford.com\/2012\/09\/dont-take-growth-for-granted\/'>Tim Harford \u2014 Don\u2019t take growth for granted<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Tim Harford Economic growth is a modern invention: 20th-century growth rates were far higher than those in the 19th century, and pre-1750 growth rates were almost imperceptible by modern standards. Many have seen this as an encouraging trend, but [economist Robert Gordon] draws a different lesson: growth is a recent phenomenon, so why assume &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/09\/25\/tim-harford-dont-take-growth-for-granted\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Tim Harford \u2014 Don\u2019t take growth for granted&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,29],"tags":[957,971,997,1527],"class_list":["post-5582","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economy","category-the-big-picture","tag-debt-accumulation","tag-debt-repayment","tag-demographics","tag-gdp-growth"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Tim Harford \u2014 Don\u2019t take growth for granted - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Tim Harford \u2014 Don\u2019t take growth for granted - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"By Tim Harford Economic growth is a modern invention: 20th-century growth rates were far higher than those in the 19th century, and pre-1750 growth rates were almost imperceptible by modern standards. Many have seen this as an encouraging trend, but [economist Robert Gordon] draws a different lesson: growth is a recent phenomenon, so why assume &hellip; Continue reading &quot;Tim Harford \u2014 Don\u2019t take growth for granted&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/09\/25\/tim-harford-dont-take-growth-for-granted\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2012-09-26T02:47:51+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Colin Twiggs\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/09\/25\/tim-harford-dont-take-growth-for-granted\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/09\/25\/tim-harford-dont-take-growth-for-granted\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Colin Twiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/d42b18d516a80149d739845749ac6454\"},\"headline\":\"Tim Harford \u2014 Don\u2019t take growth for granted\",\"datePublished\":\"2012-09-26T02:47:51+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/09\/25\/tim-harford-dont-take-growth-for-granted\/\"},\"wordCount\":104,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization\"},\"keywords\":[\"debt accumulation\",\"debt repayment\",\"demographics\",\"GDP growth\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Economy\",\"The Big Picture\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/09\/25\/tim-harford-dont-take-growth-for-granted\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/09\/25\/tim-harford-dont-take-growth-for-granted\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/09\/25\/tim-harford-dont-take-growth-for-granted\/\",\"name\":\"Tim Harford \u2014 Don\u2019t take growth for granted - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2012-09-26T02:47:51+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/09\/25\/tim-harford-dont-take-growth-for-granted\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/09\/25\/tim-harford-dont-take-growth-for-granted\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/09\/25\/tim-harford-dont-take-growth-for-granted\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Tim Harford \u2014 Don\u2019t take growth for granted\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. 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There is simply no way the Fed can win the battle it's currently waging against deflation, because there are 76 million Baby Boomers who increasingly want to save, not spend. Old\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":45254,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/11\/08\/long-term-outlook-how-does-it-all-end\/","url_meta":{"origin":5582,"position":2},"title":"Long-term outlook: How does it all end?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 8, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"What economic path are the US and major allies likely to take over the next decade? Here is my take on how this is likely to pan out. First, let's start with a template of what a healthy, growing economy looks like. A Virtuous Cycle Growth is dependent on two\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;UK &amp; Europe&quot;","block_context":{"text":"UK &amp; Europe","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/uk-europe-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Private Investment\/GDP & Real GDP\/Total Non-farm Payroll","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-11-14-gpdi-gdp.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-11-14-gpdi-gdp.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-11-14-gpdi-gdp.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":13518,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/07\/04\/dont-blame-demographics-blame-the-government\/","url_meta":{"origin":5582,"position":3},"title":"Don&#8217;t blame demographics, blame the government","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"July 4, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"Niels Jensen's Absolute Return monthly newsletter raises one of the major structural impediments to growth in Europe: As [economist Woody Brock] pointed out when in London, ageing has only had a modest impact on GDP growth and inflation so far. Governments have ruined economic growth in Europe; demographics haven\u2019t. If\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":22967,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/11\/30\/australias-credit-and-investment-slump\/","url_meta":{"origin":5582,"position":4},"title":"Australia&#8217;s credit and investment slump","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 30, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Australian private credit growth slowed to zero (month-to-month) for October 2020, or 1.8% year-on-year. Housing credit shows a slight up-tick, spurred by first home buyer incentives and ultra-low interest rates. But business credit is falling as investment demand plunges to 2008 lows. Capital expenditure contracted sharply in the services sector\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":4096,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/04\/17\/john-mauldin-hoisington-q1-review-and-outlook\/","url_meta":{"origin":5582,"position":5},"title":"John Mauldin: Hoisington Q1 Review and Outlook","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 17, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"John Mauldin: Lacy Hunt kicks things off with a bang in Hoisington\u2019s Quarterly Review and Outlook, this week\u2019s Outside the Box: \u201cThe standard of living of the average American continues to fall.\u201d The reason, in a word: debt. Lacy explains what happens: \u201cEfforts by fiscal and monetary authorities to sustain\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Debt Levels&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Debt Levels","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/debt-levels\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5582","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5582"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5582\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5582"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5582"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5582"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}