{"id":55718,"date":"2024-07-18T07:44:04","date_gmt":"2024-07-18T07:44:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=55718"},"modified":"2024-07-18T07:46:59","modified_gmt":"2024-07-18T07:46:59","slug":"australian-job-growth-surprise","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/07\/18\/australian-job-growth-surprise\/","title":{"rendered":"Australian job growth surprise"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Australian jobs grew by a surprising 50.2K, compared to consensus estimates of 20K, with total employment reaching 14.4 million.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-07-17-aus-jobs.png?resize=525%2C277&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Australian Jobs\" width=\"525\" height=\"277\" \/><\/p>\n<p>But employment per capita remains steady at 64% because of the huge swell in immigration.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-07-17-aus-jobs-percapita.png?resize=525%2C278&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Australian Jobs per capita\" width=\"525\" height=\"278\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1%, while trend remained steady at 4.0%, as the participation rate grew.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-07-17-aus-u3.png?resize=525%2C281&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Unemployment Rate\" width=\"525\" height=\"281\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Total hours worked increased to 1.97 billion, a 1.3% increase in the trend since June 2023.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-07-17-aus-hours.png?resize=525%2C273&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Total Hours Worked\" width=\"525\" height=\"273\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Average hours worked (trend) declined to 136.6 hours in June, from 138.6 hours 12 months ago, reflecting slowing demand growth.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-07-17-aus-ave-hours.png?resize=525%2C381&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Total Hours Worked\" width=\"525\" height=\"381\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>Westpac believe that the strong June labor report points to a soft landing ahead. We are more skeptical. Soft landings are often promised and seldom materialize.<\/p>\n<p>China has reported deflation for the fifth quarter in a row. When your biggest trading partner suffers from deflation, it generally is bad news for you as well.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-07-17-china-gdp-deflator.png?resize=525%2C312&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"China Deflation\" width=\"525\" height=\"312\" \/><\/p>\n<h4>Acknowledgements<\/h4>\n<ul>\n<li>ABS: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.abs.gov.au\/statistics\/labour\/employment-and-unemployment\/labour-force-australia\/latest-release\">Labour Force, Australia<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Ryan Wells, Westpac: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.westpaciq.com.au\/economics\/2024\/07\/labour-force-june-2024\">June Labour Force: \u2018soft\u2019 landing in sight<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Adem Tumerkan: <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/RadicalAdem\/status\/1812690769888854413\">China Deflation Chart<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Australian jobs grew by a surprising 50.2K, compared to consensus estimates of 20K, with total employment reaching 14.4 million. But employment per capita remains steady at 64% because of the huge swell in immigration. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1%, while trend remained steady at 4.0%, as the participation rate grew. Total hours worked &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/07\/18\/australian-job-growth-surprise\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Australian job growth surprise&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,41,46,3761],"tags":[290,6595,6596,6597,3442,3534],"class_list":["post-55718","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia-nz-countries-regions","category-china-hk","category-deficit-spending-employment","category-gdp-and-activity","tag-australia","tag-australian-jobs","tag-australian-jobs-per-capita","tag-china-deflation","tag-total-hours-worked","tag-unemployment-rate"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Australian job growth surprise - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Australian job growth surprise - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Australian jobs grew by a surprising 50.2K, compared to consensus estimates of 20K, with total employment reaching 14.4 million. But employment per capita remains steady at 64% because of the huge swell in immigration. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1%, while trend remained steady at 4.0%, as the participation rate grew. 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But we need to take into account the 1 million post-pandemic surge in immigration before we predict an economic collapse. The trend in employment is still upward although growth has slowed. Total hours worked, however, has\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Australia: Unemployment","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-14-aus-u3.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-14-aus-u3.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-14-aus-u3.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-14-aus-u3.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":54477,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/06\/14\/54477\/","url_meta":{"origin":55718,"position":2},"title":"Australian households feel the pain","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"June 14, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Australian unemployment increased to 4.0% in May but that's not the full picture. Unemployment declined to 4.0% from 4.1% in April, but the trend increased to 4.0% from 3.9%. Increases remain low compared to pre-pandemic rates of unemployment. Underemployment and trend both remained steady at 6.7%. Again, rates are lower\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Unemployment","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-06-13-aus-u3.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-06-13-aus-u3.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-06-13-aus-u3.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":48609,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/02\/20\/will-the-rba-cut-first\/","url_meta":{"origin":55718,"position":3},"title":"Will the RBA cut first?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 20, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Recent articles in Macrobusiness and the ABC suggest that the RBA is likely to cut interest rates early, ahead of the Fed. Their conclusions are based on a February 16 research note by Gareth Aird at Commbank Divergence between the Australian and US consumer which provides some excellent charts: The\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Fed Funds Rate & RBA Cash Rate","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-20-ffr-rba.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-20-ffr-rba.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-20-ffr-rba.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":50190,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/03\/21\/asx-200-rallies-as-unemployment-falls\/","url_meta":{"origin":55718,"position":4},"title":"ASX 200 rallies as unemployment falls","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 21, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The ASX 200 recovered above 7700 yesterday, the higher Trend Index trough indicating strong buying pressure. Follow-through above 7800 would confirm a fresh advance, with a target of 8000. The unemployment rate dipped to 3.7% in February, although the Trend measure remains steady at 3.8%. Monthly hours worked jumped to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"ASX 200","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-03-20-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-03-20-xjo.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-03-20-xjo.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":61673,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/05\/15\/australian-jobs-market-versus-rate-cuts\/","url_meta":{"origin":55718,"position":5},"title":"Australian Jobs versus Rate Cuts","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 15, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The RBA is expected to cut interest rates by 50 basis points next week, with a further 25 basis points in June, according to the NAB economics team. CPI declined to a low annual rate of 2.4% in the first quarter, well within the RBA's target range. However, the rate\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Australian CPI - Quarterly & Annual","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-15-aus-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-15-aus-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-15-aus-cpi.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55718","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=55718"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55718\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":55722,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55718\/revisions\/55722"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=55718"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=55718"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=55718"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}