{"id":5536,"date":"2012-09-20T05:35:07","date_gmt":"2012-09-20T09:35:07","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=5536"},"modified":"2012-09-20T05:35:07","modified_gmt":"2012-09-20T09:35:07","slug":"prepare-for-the-mining-bust-house-and-holes-macrobusiness-com-au","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/09\/20\/prepare-for-the-mining-bust-house-and-holes-macrobusiness-com-au\/","title":{"rendered":"Prepare for the mining bust – House and Holes | macrobusiness.com.au"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Houses and Holes<\/em> on September 20, 2012<\/p>\n

The grey-beards of Australian economics today unite to deliver one enormous wake-up call to the nation, its government, its interests, its media and its people.<\/p>\n

Don\u2019t get me wrong, the bucket of cold water is not deserved in equal measures. For mine, the Australian people have been awake to the dangers facing the country since the GFC, hence the community embrace of saving. But the nation\u2019s media and government have existed in a bubble of hubris, forging ahead with yesterday\u2019s policies and arguments as if Australia is immune to global and historic forces.<\/p>\n

I am talking about the end of the mining boom, which is nothing more than the march of the GFC to those that have escaped until now, and the persistence of policy settings that assume that the private sector is immune to deleveraging, as well as the failure to plan beyond the next hole in the ground.<\/p>\n

Ross Garnaut and Bob Gregory deliver the bad news today via a string of speeches and articles in the [Australian Financial Review]. For those that don\u2019t know, Garnaut is the architect of the open economy policy settings that have delivered 30 years of prosperity and Gregory is the local pioneer of arguments about the effects of Dutch disease. Both are eminent economists.<\/p>\n

So what do they have to say? Nothing good.<\/p>\n

Garnaut warns of falling living standards:<\/p>\n

\u201cI think we\u2019re going to have a very difficult time adapting to the decline in living standards that\u2019s going to be a necessary part of the adjustment to the end of phase one and two of the boom,\u201d he told a conference on the rise of Asia. Professor Garnaut\u2019s warning that the looming economic adjustment would be more painful because governments had not saved enough of the resources boom in budget surpluses came as international ratings agency Standard & Poor\u2019s reaffirmed Australia\u2019s AAA sovereign rating assuming budget cuts continue.<\/p>\n

\u2026Professor Garnaut said Australians would not be so anxious about potential risks if governments had saved more of the resources boom since 2003.<\/p>\n

\u2026\u201cThe time for careful management of a difficult adjustment is the time that lies ahead,\u201d he said.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Meanwhile, Bob Gregory with Peter Sheehan write an opinion piece that endorses the Garnaut position but goes further with proposed solutions:<\/p>\n

As the resources boom unwinds over the next few years, Australia will experience a large deflationary impact, primarily driven by the fall in the terms of trade and in resource investment. The production and export of resource commodities will rise as projects are completed, but this will generate few jobs and limited domestic income to offset the terms of trade decline and the falls in mining investment.<\/p>\n

Many have argued productivity growth or labour market reform are central issues to be addressed as the resources boom passes. Productivity growth in the long run is particularly important but the key challenge over the next few years lies in addressing the change in the impact of the resources boom from expansionary to deflationary.<\/p>\n

Until recently, theory and practice around the world has given primacy to monetary policy in responding to macroeconomic shocks. But, with many economies in the zero interest rate trap, the limits of monetary policy are being realised. Monetary policy cannot be expected to play the central role in addressing the long-term demand shocks Australia faces. The current de facto policy settings \u2013 that monetary policy will support the economy in the short-run while fiscal policy is restrictive \u2013 contain risks for the longer term.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

They go on to argue that the Federal government will need to spend big on infrastructure to support growth and propose a new fund to finance the spending, in part through guaranteeing state debt.<\/p>\n

I agree with every word. But there is little hope that those in power do. Treasury Secretary Martin Parkinson responded:<\/p>\n

\u201cBecause boom implies there\u2019s a bust,\u201d he said. \u201cWhere we will end up at the end of this is with mining being a much larger share of a reshaped economy.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Ironically, this is the very thinking that all but guarantees a bust.<\/p>\n

Reproduced with thanks to Houses and Holes at Macrobusiness.com.au<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Houses and Holes on September 20, 2012 The grey-beards of Australian economics today unite to deliver one enormous wake-up call to the nation, its government, its interests, its media and its people. Don\u2019t get me wrong, the bucket of cold water is not deserved in equal measures. For mine, the Australian people have been … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Prepare for the mining bust – House and Holes | macrobusiness.com.au”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,5],"tags":[990,2323,2324],"class_list":["post-5536","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia-nz-countries-regions","category-economy","tag-deflation","tag-mining-boom","tag-mining-bust"],"yoast_head":"\nPrepare for the mining bust - House and Holes | macrobusiness.com.au - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Prepare for the mining bust - House and Holes | macrobusiness.com.au - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"By Houses and Holes on September 20, 2012 The grey-beards of Australian economics today unite to deliver one enormous wake-up call to the nation, its government, its interests, its media and its people. 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In it he mused that: The crucial lesson in all this is that Australian nominal asset prices have been supported by fiscal policy during the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.macrobusiness.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/05\/cost-risk-analysis-300x265.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":7796,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2013\/05\/24\/australia-ford-is-the-tip-of-the-crisis\/","url_meta":{"origin":5536,"position":1},"title":"Australia: Ford is the tip of the crisis","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"May 24, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"By Houses and Holes -- cross-posted from Macrobusiness.com.au It\u2019s fascinating to watch the exit of Ford shake up commentary alliances and ideology. The loon pond that dominates Australian business media is out in force with soothing words that Australian car manufacturing needs to be let go gently into that good\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Productivity","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.macrobusiness.com.au\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/05\/Capture67-300x124.png?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":14958,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/03\/14\/australia-dont-expect-a-repeat-of-the-last-boom\/","url_meta":{"origin":5536,"position":2},"title":"Australia: Don’t expect a repeat of the last boom","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"March 14, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"Gerard Minack, courtesy of Macrobusiness, explains why the recent rise in commodity prices will not result in a repeat of the last boom. There are two main ways the last commodity boom boosted domestic activity. Neither seems likely to be repeated now. The first is that the mining sector lifted\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":13444,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2016\/06\/08\/how-the-rba-killed-australian-wages-macrobusiness\/","url_meta":{"origin":5536,"position":3},"title":"How the RBA killed Australian wages | MacroBusiness","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"June 8, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"Good summary of Australia's predicament from David Llewellyn-Smith: .....A lot of this is to be expected in a post-mining boom environment. I mean, we seriously overdid it: This is why I obsess over lowering the dollar. It absorbs an huge amount of the deflationary pain in repairing one\u2019s competitiveness rather\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Stock Markets"","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":14784,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/02\/10\/now-the-economys-transition-phase-is-ending-wages-can-start-rising\/","url_meta":{"origin":5536,"position":4},"title":"Australian economy’s transition phase is ending","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"February 10, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"From Ross Gittins: The economist who's long made a close study of Australia's commodity booms, past and present, and the problems they've caused when they bust, is Dr David Gruen, now deputy secretary, economic, of the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet. In a speech he gave last week, Gruen\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Stock Markets"","block_context":{"text":"Stock Markets","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/stock-markets\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":4925,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/07\/24\/free-steak-knives-with-your-boom-macrobusiness\/","url_meta":{"origin":5536,"position":5},"title":"Free steak knives with your boom! | | MacroBusiness","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 24, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"Houses and Holes: Thermal coal is already at a price that is uneconomic for many mines and if iron ore were to settle in the $110 region, which is my call, then the margins for many an iron ore hopeful are looking suddenly thin too. If this keeps up for\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5536","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5536"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5536\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5536"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5536"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5536"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}