{"id":5429,"date":"2012-09-11T08:14:17","date_gmt":"2012-09-11T12:14:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=5429"},"modified":"2012-09-11T08:14:17","modified_gmt":"2012-09-11T12:14:17","slug":"harry-s-dent-why-the-fed-will-fail","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/09\/11\/harry-s-dent-why-the-fed-will-fail\/","title":{"rendered":"Harry S Dent: Why the Fed will fail"},"content":{"rendered":"

Harry Dent is always entertaining to listen to, but is he right about the link between demographics and inflation?<\/p>\n

There is simply no way the Fed can win the battle it’s currently waging against deflation, because there are 76 million Baby Boomers who increasingly want to save, not spend. Old people don’t buy houses! At the top of the housing boom in recent years, we had the typical upper-\u00ad\u2010middle-\u00ad\u2010class family living in a 4,000-\u00ad\u2010square-\u00ad\u2010foot McMansion. About ten years from now, what will they do? They’ll downsize to a 2,000-\u00ad\u2010 square-\u00ad\u2010foot townhouse. What do they need all those bedrooms for? The kids are gone. They don’t visit anymore. Ten years after that, where are they? They’re in 200-\u00ad\u2010square-\u00ad\u2010foot nursing home. Ten years later, where are they? They’re in a 20-\u00ad\u2010square-\u00ad\u2010foot grave plot. That’s the future of real estate. That’s why real estate has not bounced in Japan after 21 years. That’s why it won’t bounce here in the US either. For every young couple that gets married, has babies, and buys a house, there’s an older couple moving into a nursing home or dying.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

In my opinion there is a clear link between credit growth and inflation: the faster credit grows, the faster the money supply grows, and the higher the rate of inflation. Demographics are one of the factors that drive credit growth, but they are not the only factor. Interest rates are just as important: when interest rates are low we tend to save less and borrow more. And jobs, as the Fed discovered, are also important: if you haven’t got a job, you can’t borrow from the bank even when interest rates are low.<\/p>\n

At present I would guess that jobs are the biggest constraint on credit growth. Later, interest rates will rise when employment recovers — as the Fed attempts to take some of the heat out of the economy. Only then may demographics become the major restriction on credit growth, with older households down-sizing outnumbering younger households up-sizing. But that is by no means definite: solving the jobs crisis alone could take decades!<\/p>\n

Harry dent quoted from John Mauldin | A Decade of Volatility: Demographics, Debt, and Deflation (application\/pdf Object)<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Harry Dent is always entertaining to listen to, but is he right about the link between demographics and inflation? There is simply no way the Fed can win the battle it’s currently waging against deflation, because there are 76 million Baby Boomers who increasingly want to save, not spend. Old people don’t buy houses! At … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Harry S Dent: Why the Fed will fail”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,34],"tags":[990,997,1352,1828,1858,1967],"class_list":["post-5429","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economy","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-deflation","tag-demographics","tag-fed","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","tag-jobs"],"yoast_head":"\nHarry S Dent: Why the Fed will fail - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Harry S Dent: Why the Fed will fail - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Harry Dent is always entertaining to listen to, but is he right about the link between demographics and inflation? 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A consistent theme in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":36146,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/08\/04\/inflation-here-to-stay\/","url_meta":{"origin":5429,"position":2},"title":"Inflation Here To Stay","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 4, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Excellent interview with Louis-Vincent Gave, founder and CEO of Gavekal, on Wealthion. Here is a quick summary: Globalization and Inflation US weaponization of semiconductors against China signaled the end of globalization. Trump's \u201ctech war\u201d with China aimed to prevent its national champion Huawei from becoming the dominant supplier of 5G\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Unemployment","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-03-u3.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-03-u3.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-08-03-u3.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":28522,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/10\/26\/inflation-stagflation-and-deflation\/","url_meta":{"origin":5429,"position":3},"title":"Inflation, Stagflation or Deflation","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 26, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"The Case for Stagflation We now have an explosive mix of fiscal and monetary excess coupled with very long years of declining capital spending in primary resource industries that could surprisingly unleash a combination of high inflation and negative real economic growth at levels in the US that we have\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":11393,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2014\/12\/03\/will-falling-commodity-prices-cause-deflation\/","url_meta":{"origin":5429,"position":4},"title":"Will falling commodity prices cause deflation?","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"December 3, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"Some readers expressed concern about falling commodity prices, especially crude oil, and whether this will cause global deflation. 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Commodity prices may fall when there is an excess of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Crude","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-12-02-crude.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-12-02-crude.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2014\/2014-12-02-crude.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":5366,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/09\/03\/the-fed-and-the-impact-of-qe\/","url_meta":{"origin":5429,"position":5},"title":"The Fed and the impact of QE","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 3, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"Unless the Fed announces a new round of quantitative easing before the November election, I do not see the S&P 500 this year advancing past its 2007 high of 1560. 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