{"id":54068,"date":"2024-06-07T03:13:06","date_gmt":"2024-06-07T03:13:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?p=54068"},"modified":"2024-06-07T03:17:35","modified_gmt":"2024-06-07T03:17:35","slug":"australian-outlook-chris-joye","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/06\/07\/australian-outlook-chris-joye\/","title":{"rendered":"Australian Outlook | Chris Joye"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"525\" height=\"296\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/QTKmPptmOes?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=en-US&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox\"><\/iframe><\/span><\/p>\n<p>Central banks are too much under the sway of government and not doing enough to contain inflation. None worse than the RBA which is holding rates lower than they should be. The last time that we had inflation at 4.0% in 2008, the cash rate was 7.25%. Now the cash rate is only 4.35%.<\/p>\n<p>RBNZ is far more independent and hiked their official cash rate to 5.5%. The NZ economy is in recession but they still face the threat of stagflation, with low growth and high inflation.<\/p>\n<p>In Australia we have a negative output gap, where demand exceeds production capacity, far worse than in most other major economies. The only solution is to raise unemployment to lower demand. But RBA governor Michelle Bullock has publicly stated that the RBA is not looking to reduce employment.<\/p>\n<p>The latest Australian government budget is highly stimulatory and likely to fuel further inflation.<\/p>\n<p>The outcome is likely to be long-term inflation and higher long-term interest rates.<\/p>\n<h2>Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>We expect strong inflationary pressures in the next decade as governments run large fiscal deficits. Additional government spending is needed to:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>Address the energy transition from fossil fuels to renewables and nuclear;<\/li>\n<li>On-shore critical supply chains; and<\/li>\n<li>Increase defense spending in response to geopolitical tensions.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>Long-term interest rates are expected to rise over the next decade, fueled by higher inflation.<\/p>\n<p>Central banks may attempt to suppress interest rates by further expanding their balance sheets to buy long-term fiscal debt but that is short-sighted. Inflation would accelerate even higher.<\/p>\n<p>Apart from the hardship to wage-earners, and the subsequent political chaos, high inflation would threaten bond market stability. Bond market investors would be reluctant to fund deficits when interest earned is below the inflation rate. Unless there are no alternatives.<\/p>\n<p>That is why the long-term outlook for gold and silver is so bullish.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Central banks are too much under the sway of government and not doing enough to contain inflation. None worse than the RBA which is holding rates lower than they should be. The last time that we had inflation at 4.0% in 2008, the cash rate was 7.25%. Now the cash rate is only 4.35%. RBNZ &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/06\/07\/australian-outlook-chris-joye\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Australian Outlook | Chris Joye&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[40,31,46,9,13],"tags":[6523,682,6173,1828,4521,2591,2860,6524],"class_list":["post-54068","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia-nz-countries-regions","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-deficit-spending-employment","category-gold-precious-metals","category-inflation-economy","tag-cas-rate","tag-chris-joye","tag-fiscal-deficits","tag-inflation","tag-negative-real-interest-rates","tag-output-gap","tag-rba","tag-rnnz"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Australian Outlook | Chris Joye - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Australian Outlook | Chris Joye - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Central banks are too much under the sway of government and not doing enough to contain inflation. None worse than the RBA which is holding rates lower than they should be. The last time that we had inflation at 4.0% in 2008, the cash rate was 7.25%. Now the cash rate is only 4.35%. 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Bill Evans (Westpac) calls for a 50 basis point hike at the RBA's November 1st meeting: \"During this period of rising inflation\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":52380,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/05\/07\/rba-sits-tight-but-tax-cuts-threaten-rate-hikes\/","url_meta":{"origin":54068,"position":1},"title":"RBA sits tight but tax cuts threaten rate hikes ahead","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 7, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The RBA Board announced today that it would leave the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35 per cent, deciding to sit tight for another month. Rising average tax rates -- through bracket creep caused by inflation -- have been doing some of the heavy-lifting in slowing the economy and curbing\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Australian Government: Tax Cuts Ad","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-05-06-aus-taxcuts.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-05-06-aus-taxcuts.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-05-06-aus-taxcuts.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":57171,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/09\/02\/rba-should-have-hiked-rates-john-simon\/","url_meta":{"origin":54068,"position":2},"title":"RBA should have hiked rates | John Simon","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 2, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The recently departed head of research says the RBA should have hiked rates higher to head off inflation, and the Board lacked the expertise to challenge the governor on rate decisions: Acknowledgments Chris Joye: RBA story in the AFR","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"S&P 500","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-31-rba-board.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-31-rba-board.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-08-31-rba-board.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":35919,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/07\/27\/australia-q2-cpi\/","url_meta":{"origin":54068,"position":3},"title":"Australia Q2 CPI and the cash rate","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 27, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The CPI gained 1.8% in the June quarter splitting the difference between the market median of 1.9% and Westpac\u2019s forecast of 1.7%. .....This increase was the second highest since the introduction of the GST and follows on from a 2.1% increase in the March quarter. The annual pace lifted from\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"CPI: Discretionary & Non-Discretionary","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-07-27-westpac-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-07-27-westpac-cpi.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-07-27-westpac-cpi.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-07-27-westpac-cpi.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":41423,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/03\/31\/banks-predict-rba-pause-at-3-85\/","url_meta":{"origin":54068,"position":4},"title":"Banks predict RBA pause at 3.85%","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"March 31, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"National Australia Bank (NAB) has now joined Westpac (WBC) in predicting a peak RBA cash rate of 3.85%. The current target rate of 3.60% suggests one further rate hike of 25 basis points at the next RBA meeting on April 4. The shift is driven by monthly CPI falling over\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":41628,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/04\/13\/australia-braces-for-impact\/","url_meta":{"origin":54068,"position":5},"title":"Australia braces for impact","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 13, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The RBA paused rate hikes at a cash rate of 3.60% this month, with one further hike of 25 basis points expected at the next meeting on May 2nd, as the economy braces for impact from the mortgage cliff. Source: Macrobusiness\/ABA More than 600 thousand mortgages will switch from fixed\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Australia &amp; NZ&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Australia &amp; NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Australia: Mortgage Cliff","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-04-12-cliff.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-04-12-cliff.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-04-12-cliff.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/54068","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=54068"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/54068\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":54071,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/54068\/revisions\/54071"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=54068"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=54068"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=54068"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}