{"id":540,"date":"2011-08-31T04:04:00","date_gmt":"2011-08-31T08:04:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=540"},"modified":"2011-08-31T04:04:00","modified_gmt":"2011-08-31T08:04:00","slug":"the-second-great-contraction-kenneth-rogoff-project-syndicate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/08\/31\/the-second-great-contraction-kenneth-rogoff-project-syndicate\/","title":{"rendered":"The Second Great Contraction &#8211; Kenneth Rogoff &#8211; Project Syndicate"},"content":{"rendered":"<blockquote><p><span style=\"color:#008080;\">&#8230;The only practical way to shorten the coming period of painful deleveraging and slow growth would be a sustained burst of moderate inflation, say, 4-6% for several years. Of course, inflation is an unfair and arbitrary transfer of income from savers to debtors. But, at the end of the day, such a transfer is the most direct approach to faster recovery. Eventually, it will take place one way or another, anyway, as Europe is painfully learning.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color:#008080;\">Some observers regard any suggestion of even modestly elevated inflation as a form of heresy. But Great Contractions, as opposed to recessions, are very infrequent events, occurring perhaps once every 70 or 80 years. These are times when central banks need to spend some of the credibility that they accumulate in normal times.<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>via <a href=\"http:\/\/www.project-syndicate.org\/commentary\/rogoff83\/English\">The Second Great Contraction &#8211; Kenneth Rogoff &#8211; Project Syndicate<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8230;The only practical way to shorten the coming period of painful deleveraging and slow growth would be a sustained burst of moderate inflation, say, 4-6% for several years. Of course, inflation is an unfair and arbitrary transfer of income from savers to debtors. But, at the end of the day, such a transfer is the &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/08\/31\/the-second-great-contraction-kenneth-rogoff-project-syndicate\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;The Second Great Contraction &#8211; Kenneth Rogoff &#8211; Project Syndicate&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31,33,34],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-540","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-fed-banks-interest-rates","category-uk-europe-countries-regions","category-us-canada-countries-regions"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Second Great Contraction - Kenneth Rogoff - Project Syndicate - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Second Great Contraction - Kenneth Rogoff - Project Syndicate - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"&#8230;The only practical way to shorten the coming period of painful deleveraging and slow growth would be a sustained burst of moderate inflation, say, 4-6% for several years. Of course, inflation is an unfair and arbitrary transfer of income from savers to debtors. 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Full employment is seen as the primary goal and the Fed is prepared to tolerate a \"temporary\" increase in inflation. But as\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":48306,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/02\/11\/low-growth-and-high-inflation-unless-there-is-a-productivity-miracle\/","url_meta":{"origin":540,"position":1},"title":"Low growth and high inflation unless there is a productivity miracle","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 11, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Excellent Adam Taggart interview with Steen Jakobsen, CIO of Saxo Bank in Copenhagen, where he breaks down the macro issues facing developed economies. https:\/\/youtu.be\/98UFbC8hDNQ The highlights for us are: GDP growth is a functional of two variables: demographics and productivity. Demographics are a headwind as birthrates fall and populations are\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/img.youtube.com\/vi\/98UFbC8hDNQ\/0.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":6460,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/12\/12\/carney-broaches-dumping-inflation-target-ft-com\/","url_meta":{"origin":540,"position":2},"title":"Carney broaches dumping inflation target &#124; FT.com","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 12, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"Claire Jones reports that Mark Carney says central banks should consider scrapping inflation targets and target nominal GDP instead -- allowing more aggressive measures during a down-turn. [Mark Carney, next governor of the Bank of England] suggested that a nominal GDP target, where a central bank sets monetary policy based\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":33143,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/05\/19\/fed-swimming-against-the-tide\/","url_meta":{"origin":540,"position":3},"title":"Fed swimming against the tide","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 19, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The Fed continues its hawkish stance on inflation: \u201cWhat we need to see is inflation coming down in a clear and convincing way, and we\u2019re going to keep pushing until we see that. If that involves moving past broadly understood levels of \u2018neutral,\u2019 we won\u2019t hesitate at all to do\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"CPI & Fed Funds Rate","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-05-18-cpi-ffr.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-05-18-cpi-ffr.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-05-18-cpi-ffr.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2022\/2022-05-18-cpi-ffr.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":28326,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2021\/10\/13\/imf-warns-of-inflation-risks\/","url_meta":{"origin":540,"position":4},"title":"IMF warns of inflation risks","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 13, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Central banks such as the Federal Reserve should be prepared to tighten policy in case inflation gets out of control, the International Monetary Fund warned in a report Tuesday. While the IMF said it largely concurs with assessments from the Fed and many economists that the current global spate of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Inflation&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Inflation","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/inflation-economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":4935,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/07\/24\/christian-noyer-monetizing-public-debt\/","url_meta":{"origin":540,"position":5},"title":"Christian Noyer: Monetizing public debt","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 24, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"Christian Noyer, Governor of the Bank of France and Chairman of the Board of Directors of the BIS: Some central banks have developed large-scale public debt acquisition programmes. They have done so for reasons relating to immediate macroeconomic stabilisation... to go beyond the zero-interest rate limit. The Eurosystem as well\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/540","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=540"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/540\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=540"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=540"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=540"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}