Don’t Expect Consumer Spending To Be the Engine of Economic Growth It Once Was<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"By William R. Emmons: The recession itself could be described as a period in which consumer spending contracted sharply, while other sources of private demand were unable to offset the shortfall. The subsequent recovery, such as it is, largely has been the result of massive government interventions in the form of financial rescues, unprecedented monetary … <\/p>\n
Continue reading “Don't Expect Consumer Spending To Be the Engine of Economic Growth It Once Was”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[34],"tags":[800,1328,1882],"class_list":["post-5390","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-consumption","tag-exports","tag-investment"],"yoast_head":"\nDon't Expect Consumer Spending To Be the Engine of Economic Growth It Once Was - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Don't Expect Consumer Spending To Be the Engine of Economic Growth It Once Was - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"By William R. Emmons: The recession itself could be described as a period in which consumer spending contracted sharply, while other sources of private demand were unable to offset the shortfall. 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He founded PVT Capital (AFSL number 546090), which provides income and growth strategies to wholesale clients. Colin also co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Patient Investor newsletter. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies macro trends in the global economy and then combines fundamental and technical analysis to evaluate opportunities in sectors that stand to benefit. 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Housing investment continues to plunge, while fixed asset investment in manufacturing is now shrinking as well. Nominal GDP is growing at an annual rate of 4.1%, while 10-year government bond yields\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"China: Consumer Confidence","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-08-02-china-consumer-confidence.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-08-02-china-consumer-confidence.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-08-02-china-consumer-confidence.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-08-02-china-consumer-confidence.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-08-02-china-consumer-confidence.png?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":61687,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2025\/05\/17\/the-elephant-in-the-room-3\/","url_meta":{"origin":5390,"position":1},"title":"The elephant in the room","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 17, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Summary The elephant in the room is $37 trillion of US fiscal debt Rising long-term interest rates reflect bond market concerns that the Fed will sacrifice price stability to support an unstable Treasury market A year ago, we wrote: The elephant in the room is Government debt which is growing\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"CBO Projections of Debt Held by the Public as a Percentage of GDP","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-16-cbo-debt-public.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-16-cbo-debt-public.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-16-cbo-debt-public.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2025\/2025-05-16-cbo-debt-public.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":22504,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/11\/07\/asx-and-the-long-run\/","url_meta":{"origin":5390,"position":2},"title":"ASX and the long run","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 7, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"The ASX 200 is testing resistance at 6200 but declining Money Flow continues to warn of selling pressure. There is a lot of \"noise\" in the market at present -- due to COVID-19 easing, government stimulus, RBA rate cuts and political turmoil in the USA -- so we are wary\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Australia & NZ"","block_context":{"text":"Australia & NZ","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/australia-nz-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":65621,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2026\/08\/11\/prepare-for-china-shock-2-0-and-its-gold-impact\/","url_meta":{"origin":5390,"position":3},"title":"Prepare for China Shock 2.0 and its Gold Impact","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"August 11, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Key Points China's first deflationary shock flooded the global economy with cheap labor in the early 2000s and hollowed out low-tech manufacturing industry in developed economies. A credit-fueled boom followed, with huge investment in infrastructure and real estate to sustain economic growth. A massive speculative real estate bubble developed, forcing\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"China: House Price Index","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-08-07-china-houseprices.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-08-07-china-houseprices.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-08-07-china-houseprices.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-08-07-china-houseprices.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2026\/2026-08-07-china-houseprices.png?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":45254,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/11\/08\/long-term-outlook-how-does-it-all-end\/","url_meta":{"origin":5390,"position":4},"title":"Long-term outlook: How does it all end?","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 8, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"What economic path are the US and major allies likely to take over the next decade? Here is my take on how this is likely to pan out. First, let's start with a template of what a healthy, growing economy looks like. A Virtuous Cycle Growth is dependent on two\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "UK & Europe"","block_context":{"text":"UK & Europe","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/uk-europe-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Private Investment\/GDP & Real GDP\/Total Non-farm Payroll","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-11-14-gpdi-gdp.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-11-14-gpdi-gdp.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-11-14-gpdi-gdp.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":31926,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2022\/04\/07\/the-big-picture\/","url_meta":{"origin":5390,"position":5},"title":"The Big Picture","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 7, 2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Investors are constantly bombarded with information about financial markets and global risks from all sides and it is sometimes difficult to separate the wood from the trees. We wrote this macroeconomic outlook for a client but think it could be a useful summary for readers. Macroeconomic Outlook Financial markets are\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "The Big Picture"","block_context":{"text":"The Big Picture","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/the-big-picture\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5390","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5390"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5390\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5390"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5390"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5390"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}