{"id":5378,"date":"2012-09-03T23:50:41","date_gmt":"2012-09-04T03:50:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=5378"},"modified":"2012-09-03T23:50:41","modified_gmt":"2012-09-04T03:50:41","slug":"asia-china-japan-bearish-india-hesitant","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/09\/03\/asia-china-japan-bearish-india-hesitant\/","title":{"rendered":"Asia: China &#038; Japan bearish, India hesitant"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>China&#8217;s <a title=\"Also Sprach Analyst: Official Manufacturing PMI\" href=\"http:\/\/www.alsosprachanalyst.com\/economy\/china-official-manufacturing-pmi-aug-2012.html\" target=\"_blank\">official manufacturing PMI<\/a> fell to a nine-month low in August, below 50 at 49.2; <a title=\"Bloomberg: Rolled Sheet Steel Chart\" href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/quote\/CDSPHRAV:IND\/chart\" target=\"_blank\">steel prices<\/a> are at their lowest level since 2009 and <a title=\"Also Sprach Analyst: China Rail Cargo Volumes\" href=\"http:\/\/www.alsosprachanalyst.com\/economy\/chart-chinas-rail-cargo-volume.html?\" target=\"_blank\">rail cargo volumes<\/a> have experienced their sharpest fall since 2008. In the circumstances, stocks have held up surprisingly well, with a gradual rather than vertical descent. The Shenzhen Composite index is headed for a test of support at 800 and declining 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero indicates a primary down-trend, but the index is still a long way above its 2008 low of 450.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2012\/2012-09-04-szsc.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Shanghai Composite Index\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;\"><span style=\"color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 800 &#8211; ( 1000 &#8211; 800 ) = 600<\/span><\/p>\n<p>The Shanghai Composite is a lot closer to its 2008 low of 1660. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow below zero indicates selling pressure and follow-through below 2100 offers a target of 1800*.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2012\/2012-09-04-ssec.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Shanghai Composite Index\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;\"><span style=\"color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 2150 &#8211; ( 2500 &#8211; 2150 ) = 1800<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng is drifting sideways, approaching the apex of its large triangle, but failure of 63-day Twiggs Momentum to cross above zero warns of downside risk. Breach of primary support at 18000 would signal a decline to 16000*.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2012\/2012-09-04-hsi.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Hang Seng Index\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;\"><span style=\"color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 18 &#8211; ( 20 &#8211; 18 ) = 16<\/span><\/p>\n<p>India&#8217;s Sensex retreated below its new support level at 17500, warning of a false break. Penetration of the rising trendline would suggest a bull trap, while respect would test 18500*. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero would indicate selling pressure.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2012\/2012-09-04-bse.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Sensex Index\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;\"><span style=\"color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 17.5 + ( 17.5 &#8211; 16.5 ) = 18.5<\/span><\/p>\n<p>The NSE Nifty Index also retreated below its new support level and 63-day Twiggs Momentum is above zero. Respect of the rising trendline would indicate a test of 5600, while penetration would warn of a bull trap.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2012\/2012-09-04-nsx.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Sensex Index\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Singapore&#8217;s Straits Times Index is retracing to test support at 3000. The up-trend appears weak and failure of support would signal a test of the lower trend channel. It is unclear whether 63-day Twiggs Momentum will oscillate around zero, indicating a ranging market, or above zero, indicating a healthy up-trend. The next trough should clarify this: respect of zero indicating a primary up-trend.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2012\/2012-09-04-sti.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Singapore Straits Times Index\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Japan&#8217;s Nikkei 225 index retreated below 9000, indicating a false breakout. Matching peaks below zero on\u00a063-day Twiggs Momentum and 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow warn of a strong down-trend. Failure of primary support at 8200 would confirm.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2012\/2012-09-04-n225.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Nikkei 225 Index\" \/><\/p>\n<p>South Korea&#8217;s Seoul Composite index retraced to test support after breakout above 1900. Declining peaks on 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow depict rising selling pressure. Failure of support at 1900 would suggest another test of primary support at 1750.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2012\/2012-09-04-ks11.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Seoul Composite Index\" \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>China&#8217;s official manufacturing PMI fell to a nine-month low in August, below 50 at 49.2; steel prices are at their lowest level since 2009 and rail cargo volumes have experienced their sharpest fall since 2008. In the circumstances, stocks have held up surprisingly well, with a gradual rather than vertical descent. The Shenzhen Composite index &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/09\/03\/asia-china-japan-bearish-india-hesitant\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Asia: China &#038; Japan bearish, India hesitant&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[41,12,17,57],"tags":[1644,2479,2511,3084,3086,3100,3110,3134],"class_list":["post-5378","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-china-hk","category-india-singapore-countries-regions","category-japan-korea","category-stock-markets","tag-hang-seng-index","tag-nikkei-225-index","tag-nsesp-nifty-index","tag-sensex-index","tag-seoul-composite-index","tag-shanghai-composite-index","tag-shenzhen-composite-index","tag-singapore-straits-times-index"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Asia: China &#038; Japan bearish, India hesitant - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Asia: China &#038; Japan bearish, India hesitant - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"China&#8217;s official manufacturing PMI fell to a nine-month low in August, below 50 at 49.2; steel prices are at their lowest level since 2009 and rail cargo volumes have experienced their sharpest fall since 2008. 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He founded PVT Capital (AFSL number 546090), which provides income and growth strategies to wholesale clients. Colin also co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Patient Investor newsletter. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies macro trends in the global economy and then combines fundamental and technical analysis to evaluate opportunities in sectors that stand to benefit. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-1oK","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":4751,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/07\/03\/asian-markets-india-bullish-while-china-weakens\/","url_meta":{"origin":5378,"position":0},"title":"Asian markets: India bullish while China weakens","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 3, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"Japan's Nikkei 225 index is testing medium-term resistance at 9000\/9100. Breakout would test 10000. Troughs below zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicate weakness. China's Shanghai Composite Index is retracing to test resistance at 2250. Respect would confirm a primary down-trend -- already signaled by 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":4879,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/07\/17\/asia-india-bullish-while-china-japan-bearish\/","url_meta":{"origin":5378,"position":1},"title":"Asia: India bullish while China, Japan bearish","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 17, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"Japan's Nikkei 225 index formed a peak below zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, indicating strong selling pressure. Failure of primary support at 8200 would signal another test of the 2008\/2009 lows at 7000. China's Shanghai Composite Index is testing its 2011 low of 2150 after breaking\u00a0 primary support at\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":5721,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/10\/08\/asia-china-india-and-japan\/","url_meta":{"origin":5378,"position":2},"title":"Asia: China, India and Japan","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 8, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"The Shanghai Composite Index is consolidating between 2000 and 2150. Descending 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of long-term selling pressure. Respect of resistance at 2150 is likely and breakout below 2000 would signal a decline to 1800*. * Target calculation: 2150 - ( 2500 - 2150 ) = 1800 Shenzhen\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":4914,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/07\/23\/asia-china-japan-bearish\/","url_meta":{"origin":5378,"position":3},"title":"Asia: China, Japan bearish","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 23, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"Japan's Nikkei 225 index is headed for another test of long-term support at 8000\/8200 on the monthly chart. The latest peak below zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of strong selling pressure. Failure of support would signal another test of the 2008\/2009 lows at 7000. China's Shanghai Composite Index\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":5021,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/07\/31\/asia-china-japan-bearish-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":5378,"position":4},"title":"Asia: China, Japan bearish","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 31, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"There are conflicting reports about whether China is head for a hard or soft landing. China has the reserves and the capacity to implement further infrastructure programs if the economy cools too rapidly. And while its long-term goal is to deflate the speculative real estate bubble, the PBOC has shown\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":5558,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/09\/24\/asia-india-strong-but-china-japan-weaken\/","url_meta":{"origin":5378,"position":5},"title":"Asia: India strong but China, Japan weaken","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 24, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"China's Shanghai Composite Index followed through below recent support at 2050. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, below zero, indicates selling pressure. Target for the decline is 1800*. * Target calculation: 2150 - ( 2500 - 2150 ) = 1800 South Korea's Seoul Composite Index is headed for a test of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5378","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5378"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5378\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5378"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5378"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5378"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}