{"id":5378,"date":"2012-09-03T23:50:41","date_gmt":"2012-09-04T03:50:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=5378"},"modified":"2012-09-03T23:50:41","modified_gmt":"2012-09-04T03:50:41","slug":"asia-china-japan-bearish-india-hesitant","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/09\/03\/asia-china-japan-bearish-india-hesitant\/","title":{"rendered":"Asia: China &#038; Japan bearish, India hesitant"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>China&#8217;s <a title=\"Also Sprach Analyst: Official Manufacturing PMI\" href=\"http:\/\/www.alsosprachanalyst.com\/economy\/china-official-manufacturing-pmi-aug-2012.html\" target=\"_blank\">official manufacturing PMI<\/a> fell to a nine-month low in August, below 50 at 49.2; <a title=\"Bloomberg: Rolled Sheet Steel Chart\" href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/quote\/CDSPHRAV:IND\/chart\" target=\"_blank\">steel prices<\/a> are at their lowest level since 2009 and <a title=\"Also Sprach Analyst: China Rail Cargo Volumes\" href=\"http:\/\/www.alsosprachanalyst.com\/economy\/chart-chinas-rail-cargo-volume.html?\" target=\"_blank\">rail cargo volumes<\/a> have experienced their sharpest fall since 2008. In the circumstances, stocks have held up surprisingly well, with a gradual rather than vertical descent. The Shenzhen Composite index is headed for a test of support at 800 and declining 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero indicates a primary down-trend, but the index is still a long way above its 2008 low of 450.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2012\/2012-09-04-szsc.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Shanghai Composite Index\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;\"><span style=\"color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 800 &#8211; ( 1000 &#8211; 800 ) = 600<\/span><\/p>\n<p>The Shanghai Composite is a lot closer to its 2008 low of 1660. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow below zero indicates selling pressure and follow-through below 2100 offers a target of 1800*.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2012\/2012-09-04-ssec.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Shanghai Composite Index\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;\"><span style=\"color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 2150 &#8211; ( 2500 &#8211; 2150 ) = 1800<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Hong Kong&#8217;s Hang Seng is drifting sideways, approaching the apex of its large triangle, but failure of 63-day Twiggs Momentum to cross above zero warns of downside risk. Breach of primary support at 18000 would signal a decline to 16000*.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2012\/2012-09-04-hsi.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Hang Seng Index\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;\"><span style=\"color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 18 &#8211; ( 20 &#8211; 18 ) = 16<\/span><\/p>\n<p>India&#8217;s Sensex retreated below its new support level at 17500, warning of a false break. Penetration of the rising trendline would suggest a bull trap, while respect would test 18500*. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero would indicate selling pressure.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2012\/2012-09-04-bse.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Sensex Index\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align:right;font-size:.9em;\"><span style=\"color:#999999;\">* Target calculation: 17.5 + ( 17.5 &#8211; 16.5 ) = 18.5<\/span><\/p>\n<p>The NSE Nifty Index also retreated below its new support level and 63-day Twiggs Momentum is above zero. Respect of the rising trendline would indicate a test of 5600, while penetration would warn of a bull trap.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2012\/2012-09-04-nsx.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Sensex Index\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Singapore&#8217;s Straits Times Index is retracing to test support at 3000. The up-trend appears weak and failure of support would signal a test of the lower trend channel. It is unclear whether 63-day Twiggs Momentum will oscillate around zero, indicating a ranging market, or above zero, indicating a healthy up-trend. The next trough should clarify this: respect of zero indicating a primary up-trend.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2012\/2012-09-04-sti.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Singapore Straits Times Index\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Japan&#8217;s Nikkei 225 index retreated below 9000, indicating a false breakout. Matching peaks below zero on\u00a063-day Twiggs Momentum and 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow warn of a strong down-trend. Failure of primary support at 8200 would confirm.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2012\/2012-09-04-n225.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Nikkei 225 Index\" \/><\/p>\n<p>South Korea&#8217;s Seoul Composite index retraced to test support after breakout above 1900. Declining peaks on 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow depict rising selling pressure. Failure of support at 1900 would suggest another test of primary support at 1750.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2012\/2012-09-04-ks11.png?w=525&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Seoul Composite Index\" \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>China&#8217;s official manufacturing PMI fell to a nine-month low in August, below 50 at 49.2; steel prices are at their lowest level since 2009 and rail cargo volumes have experienced their sharpest fall since 2008. In the circumstances, stocks have held up surprisingly well, with a gradual rather than vertical descent. The Shenzhen Composite index &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/09\/03\/asia-china-japan-bearish-india-hesitant\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Asia: China &#038; Japan bearish, India hesitant&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[41,12,17,57],"tags":[1644,2479,2511,3084,3086,3100,3110,3134],"class_list":["post-5378","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-china-hk","category-india-singapore-countries-regions","category-japan-korea","category-stock-markets","tag-hang-seng-index","tag-nikkei-225-index","tag-nsesp-nifty-index","tag-sensex-index","tag-seoul-composite-index","tag-shanghai-composite-index","tag-shenzhen-composite-index","tag-singapore-straits-times-index"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Asia: China &#038; Japan bearish, India hesitant - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Asia: China &#038; Japan bearish, India hesitant - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"China&#8217;s official manufacturing PMI fell to a nine-month low in August, below 50 at 49.2; steel prices are at their lowest level since 2009 and rail cargo volumes have experienced their sharpest fall since 2008. 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He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters. Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis. Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008\/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.","sameAs":["https:\/\/facebook.com\/people\/The-Patient-Investor\/61572934660810\/","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor","https:\/\/au.linkedin.com\/in\/colintwiggs"],"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/investor\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-1oK","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":4751,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/07\/03\/asian-markets-india-bullish-while-china-weakens\/","url_meta":{"origin":5378,"position":0},"title":"Asian markets: India bullish while China weakens","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 3, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"Japan's Nikkei 225 index is testing medium-term resistance at 9000\/9100. Breakout would test 10000. Troughs below zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicate weakness. China's Shanghai Composite Index is retracing to test resistance at 2250. Respect would confirm a primary down-trend -- already signaled by 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":4879,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/07\/17\/asia-india-bullish-while-china-japan-bearish\/","url_meta":{"origin":5378,"position":1},"title":"Asia: India bullish while China, Japan bearish","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 17, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"Japan's Nikkei 225 index formed a peak below zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, indicating strong selling pressure. Failure of primary support at 8200 would signal another test of the 2008\/2009 lows at 7000. China's Shanghai Composite Index is testing its 2011 low of 2150 after breaking\u00a0 primary support at\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":5721,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/10\/08\/asia-china-india-and-japan\/","url_meta":{"origin":5378,"position":2},"title":"Asia: China, India and Japan","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 8, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"The Shanghai Composite Index is consolidating between 2000 and 2150. Descending 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of long-term selling pressure. Respect of resistance at 2150 is likely and breakout below 2000 would signal a decline to 1800*. * Target calculation: 2150 - ( 2500 - 2150 ) = 1800 Shenzhen\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":4914,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/07\/23\/asia-china-japan-bearish\/","url_meta":{"origin":5378,"position":3},"title":"Asia: China, Japan bearish","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 23, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"Japan's Nikkei 225 index is headed for another test of long-term support at 8000\/8200 on the monthly chart. The latest peak below zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of strong selling pressure. Failure of support would signal another test of the 2008\/2009 lows at 7000. China's Shanghai Composite Index\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":5021,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/07\/31\/asia-china-japan-bearish-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":5378,"position":4},"title":"Asia: China, Japan bearish","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"July 31, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"There are conflicting reports about whether China is head for a hard or soft landing. China has the reserves and the capacity to implement further infrastructure programs if the economy cools too rapidly. And while its long-term goal is to deflate the speculative real estate bubble, the PBOC has shown\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":5558,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/09\/24\/asia-india-strong-but-china-japan-weaken\/","url_meta":{"origin":5378,"position":5},"title":"Asia: India strong but China, Japan weaken","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"September 24, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"China's Shanghai Composite Index followed through below recent support at 2050. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, below zero, indicates selling pressure. Target for the decline is 1800*. * Target calculation: 2150 - ( 2500 - 2150 ) = 1800 South Korea's Seoul Composite Index is headed for a test of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;China &amp; HK&quot;","block_context":{"text":"China &amp; HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5378","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5378"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5378\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5378"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5378"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5378"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}