Unless the Fed announces a new round of quantitative easing before the November election, I do not see the S&P 500 this year advancing past its 2007 high of 1560.<\/p>\n
The market generally overreacts to balance sheet expansion by the Fed, anticipating higher inflation. What it seems to overlook is the deflationary effect of private sector deleveraging which should enable the Fed to maneuver a soft landing.<\/p>\n
The real impact of Fed policy is to subsidize debtors and starve creditors — private investors and pension funds — of yield. The net result is that investors are driven to higher yields — accompanied by higher risk — which is likely to cause more pain at the next down-turn.<\/p>\n
The only way to compensate creditors would be to lower taxes on interest, but I question how high this would rank in either party’s priorities.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Unless the Fed announces a new round of quantitative easing before the November election, I do not see the S&P 500 this year advancing past its 2007 high of 1560. The market generally overreacts to balance sheet expansion by the Fed, anticipating higher inflation. What it seems to overlook is the deflationary effect of private … <\/p>\n