{"id":528,"date":"2011-08-30T20:29:03","date_gmt":"2011-08-31T00:29:03","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=528"},"modified":"2011-08-30T20:29:03","modified_gmt":"2011-08-31T00:29:03","slug":"struggling-with-a-great-contraction-ft-com","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/08\/30\/struggling-with-a-great-contraction-ft-com\/","title":{"rendered":"Struggling with a great contraction – FT.com"},"content":{"rendered":"

Many ask whether high-income countries are at risk of a \u201cdouble dip\u201d recession. My answer is: no, because the first one did not end. The question is, rather, how much deeper and longer this recession or \u201ccontraction\u201d might become.<\/span><\/p>\n

…… the dire consequences of soaring risk aversion, against the background of such economic fragility. In the long journey to becoming ever more like Japan, the yields on 10-year US and German government bonds are now down to where Japan\u2019s had fallen in October 1997, at close to 2 per cent. Does deflation lie ahead in these countries, too? One big recession could surely bring about just that. That seems to me to be a more plausible danger than the hyperinflation that those fixated on fiscal deficits and central bank balance sheet find so terrifying.<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

via Martin Wolf|Struggling with a great contraction – FT.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Many ask whether high-income countries are at risk of a \u201cdouble dip\u201d recession. My answer is: no, because the first one did not end. The question is, rather, how much deeper and longer this recession or \u201ccontraction\u201d might become. …… the dire consequences of soaring risk aversion, against the background of such economic fragility. In … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “Struggling with a great contraction – FT.com”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[33,34],"tags":[474,990,1094,1611,2880],"class_list":["post-528","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uk-europe-countries-regions","category-us-canada-countries-regions","tag-bond-yields","tag-deflation","tag-double-dip","tag-great-contraction","tag-recession"],"yoast_head":"\nStruggling with a great contraction - FT.com - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Struggling with a great contraction - FT.com - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Many ask whether high-income countries are at risk of a \u201cdouble dip\u201d recession. My answer is: no, because the first one did not end. The question is, rather, how much deeper and longer this recession or \u201ccontraction\u201d might become. …… the dire consequences of soaring risk aversion, against the background of such economic fragility. In … Continue reading "Struggling with a great contraction – FT.com"\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/08\/30\/struggling-with-a-great-contraction-ft-com\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2011-08-31T00:29:03+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"ColinTwiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"ColinTwiggs\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/08\/30\/struggling-with-a-great-contraction-ft-com\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/08\/30\/struggling-with-a-great-contraction-ft-com\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"ColinTwiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/cb072791ac83e8bae585007c133d54a5\"},\"headline\":\"Struggling with a great contraction – FT.com\",\"datePublished\":\"2011-08-31T00:29:03+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/08\/30\/struggling-with-a-great-contraction-ft-com\/\"},\"wordCount\":151,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization\"},\"keywords\":[\"bond yields\",\"deflation\",\"double-dip\",\"great contraction\",\"Recession\"],\"articleSection\":[\"UK & Europe\",\"US & Canada\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/08\/30\/struggling-with-a-great-contraction-ft-com\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/08\/30\/struggling-with-a-great-contraction-ft-com\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/08\/30\/struggling-with-a-great-contraction-ft-com\/\",\"name\":\"Struggling with a great contraction - FT.com - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2011-08-31T00:29:03+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/08\/30\/struggling-with-a-great-contraction-ft-com\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/08\/30\/struggling-with-a-great-contraction-ft-com\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/08\/30\/struggling-with-a-great-contraction-ft-com\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Struggling with a great contraction – FT.com\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. Strategic. Unfiltered. \",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor Pty Ltd\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/cropped-cropped-patience-bg-1-inverted-400x400-1.png?fit=250%2C250&ssl=1\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/cropped-cropped-patience-bg-1-inverted-400x400-1.png?fit=250%2C250&ssl=1\",\"width\":250,\"height\":250,\"caption\":\"The Patient Investor Pty Ltd\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\",\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor\"]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/cb072791ac83e8bae585007c133d54a5\",\"name\":\"ColinTwiggs\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/876c4d990bb2af282291d5f3ff81533c6deccc0c607846086647ca3272fac0ca?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/876c4d990bb2af282291d5f3ff81533c6deccc0c607846086647ca3272fac0ca?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/876c4d990bb2af282291d5f3ff81533c6deccc0c607846086647ca3272fac0ca?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"ColinTwiggs\"},\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/colin58s\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Struggling with a great contraction - FT.com - the patient investor","robots":{"index":"noindex","follow":"follow"},"og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Struggling with a great contraction - FT.com - the patient investor","og_description":"Many ask whether high-income countries are at risk of a \u201cdouble dip\u201d recession. My answer is: no, because the first one did not end. The question is, rather, how much deeper and longer this recession or \u201ccontraction\u201d might become. …… the dire consequences of soaring risk aversion, against the background of such economic fragility. In … Continue reading \"Struggling with a great contraction – FT.com\"","og_url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/08\/30\/struggling-with-a-great-contraction-ft-com\/","og_site_name":"the patient investor","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810","article_published_time":"2011-08-31T00:29:03+00:00","author":"ColinTwiggs","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"ColinTwiggs","Est. reading time":"1 minute"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/08\/30\/struggling-with-a-great-contraction-ft-com\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/08\/30\/struggling-with-a-great-contraction-ft-com\/"},"author":{"name":"ColinTwiggs","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/cb072791ac83e8bae585007c133d54a5"},"headline":"Struggling with a great contraction – FT.com","datePublished":"2011-08-31T00:29:03+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/08\/30\/struggling-with-a-great-contraction-ft-com\/"},"wordCount":151,"commentCount":0,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization"},"keywords":["bond yields","deflation","double-dip","great contraction","Recession"],"articleSection":["UK & Europe","US & Canada"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/08\/30\/struggling-with-a-great-contraction-ft-com\/#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/08\/30\/struggling-with-a-great-contraction-ft-com\/","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/08\/30\/struggling-with-a-great-contraction-ft-com\/","name":"Struggling with a great contraction - FT.com - the patient investor","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website"},"datePublished":"2011-08-31T00:29:03+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/08\/30\/struggling-with-a-great-contraction-ft-com\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/08\/30\/struggling-with-a-great-contraction-ft-com\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/08\/30\/struggling-with-a-great-contraction-ft-com\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Struggling with a great contraction – FT.com"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/","name":"The Patient Investor","description":"Smart. Strategic. Unfiltered. ","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization","name":"The Patient Investor Pty Ltd","url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/cropped-cropped-patience-bg-1-inverted-400x400-1.png?fit=250%2C250&ssl=1","contentUrl":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/cropped-cropped-patience-bg-1-inverted-400x400-1.png?fit=250%2C250&ssl=1","width":250,"height":250,"caption":"The Patient Investor Pty Ltd"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/colin_thepatientinvestor"]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/cb072791ac83e8bae585007c133d54a5","name":"ColinTwiggs","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/876c4d990bb2af282291d5f3ff81533c6deccc0c607846086647ca3272fac0ca?s=96&d=mm&r=g","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/876c4d990bb2af282291d5f3ff81533c6deccc0c607846086647ca3272fac0ca?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/876c4d990bb2af282291d5f3ff81533c6deccc0c607846086647ca3272fac0ca?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"ColinTwiggs"},"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/author\/colin58s\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9tQ4n-8w","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":883,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/09\/21\/how-to-prevent-a-depression-nouriel-roubini-project-syndicate\/","url_meta":{"origin":528,"position":0},"title":"How to Prevent a Depression – Nouriel Roubini – Project Syndicate","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"September 21, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"The risks ahead are not just of a mild double-dip recession, but of a severe contraction that could turn into Great Depression II, especially if the eurozone crisis becomes disorderly and leads to a global financial meltdown. Wrong-headed policies during the first Great Depression led to trade and currency wars,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Economy"","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":1325,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/10\/13\/roubini-moving-from-the-post-bubble-post-bust-economy-to-growth-credit-writedowns\/","url_meta":{"origin":528,"position":1},"title":"Roubini: Moving From the Post-Bubble, Post-Bust Economy to Growth | Credit Writedowns","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"October 13, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"It is not only the U.S. economy that is in peril right now. \u2026Europe is struggling to prevent the sovereign debt problems of its peripheral Euro-zone economies from spiraling into a full-fledged banking crisis\u2026 Meanwhile, China and other large emerging economies\u2026 are beginning to experience slowdowns\u2026Nor is renewed recession the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "China & HK"","block_context":{"text":"China & HK","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/china-hk\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":46382,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2023\/12\/13\/commodities-flag-global-recession-threatening-usts\/","url_meta":{"origin":528,"position":2},"title":"Commodities flag global recession, threatening USTs","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"December 13, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Long-term bonds and stocks are in a bull-trend but commodities warn that the global economy is tipping into recession. The November CPI report shows underlying inflation sticking at 4.0%, suggesting that the Fed will be reluctant to cut rates, but they may be forced to if a global recession disrupts\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"10-Year Treasury Yield","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-12-13-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-12-13-tnx.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2023\/2023-12-13-tnx.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":6215,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/11\/18\/the-liquidity-trap\/","url_meta":{"origin":528,"position":3},"title":"The Liquidity Trap","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 18, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"In his 2003 paper Escaping from a Liquidity Trap and Deflation: The Foolproof Way and Others Lars E.O. Svensson describes the liquidity trap experienced by countries such as Japan and lately the US, when central bank interest rates are close to zero percent. If the nominal interest rate is initially\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Banks & Interest Rates"","block_context":{"text":"Banks & Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":6298,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2012\/11\/28\/the-eurozones-double-dip-recession-is-entirely-self-made-europp\/","url_meta":{"origin":528,"position":4},"title":"The eurozone\u2019s double-dip recession is entirely self-made. | EUROPP","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"November 28, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"Good comparison of relative unit labor costs for EZ countries in this article by Paul De Grauwe. Germany is lowest at 85-90. Greece and Portugal highest at 110-115, with Italy, Spain and Belgium next at 105-110. Ireland has made the most spectacular recovery, falling to 95 from a high 115-120\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "UK & Europe"","block_context":{"text":"UK & Europe","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/uk-europe-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":19025,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/05\/sp-500-survives-but-risk-is-elevated\/","url_meta":{"origin":528,"position":5},"title":"S&P 500 survives but risk is elevated","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 5, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Our recession indicator, a 3-month TMO of seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls, ticked up slightly to 0.52%. This reflects a slight improvement in monthly employment data but the indicator remains precariously close to the amber (high risk) warning level of 0.50%. The red warning level of 0.30% would signal extreme risk\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Deficit Spending & Employment"","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending & Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/528","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=528"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/528\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=528"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=528"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=528"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}