{"id":501,"date":"2011-08-29T23:45:55","date_gmt":"2011-08-30T03:45:55","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/goldstocksforex.com\/?p=501"},"modified":"2011-08-29T23:45:55","modified_gmt":"2011-08-30T03:45:55","slug":"how-the-economy-quietly-entered-a-recession-on-friday-and-why-the-gdp-predicts-a-sub-zero-nonfarm-payroll-number-zerohedge","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/08\/29\/how-the-economy-quietly-entered-a-recession-on-friday-and-why-the-gdp-predicts-a-sub-zero-nonfarm-payroll-number-zerohedge\/","title":{"rendered":"How The Economy Quietly Entered A Recession On Friday, And Why The GDP Predicts A Sub-Zero Nonfarm Payroll Number | ZeroHedge"},"content":{"rendered":"<blockquote><p><span style=\"color:#008080;\">What is just as important is that &#8230;.. the YoY change in real GDP, which is now at 1.5%, is a slam dunk indicator of recession: &#8220;Since 1948, every time the four-quarter change has fallen below 2 percent, the economy has entered a recession. It\u2019s hard to argue against an indicator with such a long history of accuracy.&#8221;<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>via <a href=\"http:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/news\/how-economy-quietly-entered-recession-friday-and-why-gdp-predicts-sub-zero-nonfarm-payroll-numb?utm_source=feedburner&amp;utm_medium=feed&amp;utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">How The Economy Quietly Entered A Recession On Friday, And Why The GDP Predicts A Sub-Zero Nonfarm Payroll Number | ZeroHedge<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>What is just as important is that &#8230;.. the YoY change in real GDP, which is now at 1.5%, is a slam dunk indicator of recession: &#8220;Since 1948, every time the four-quarter change has fallen below 2 percent, the economy has entered a recession. It\u2019s hard to argue against an indicator with such a long &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/08\/29\/how-the-economy-quietly-entered-a-recession-on-friday-and-why-the-gdp-predicts-a-sub-zero-nonfarm-payroll-number-zerohedge\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;How The Economy Quietly Entered A Recession On Friday, And Why The GDP Predicts A Sub-Zero Nonfarm Payroll Number | ZeroHedge&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[34],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-501","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-us-canada-countries-regions"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>How The Economy Quietly Entered A Recession On Friday, And Why The GDP Predicts A Sub-Zero Nonfarm Payroll Number | ZeroHedge - the patient investor<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"How The Economy Quietly Entered A Recession On Friday, And Why The GDP Predicts A Sub-Zero Nonfarm Payroll Number | ZeroHedge - the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"What is just as important is that &#8230;.. the YoY change in real GDP, which is now at 1.5%, is a slam dunk indicator of recession: &#8220;Since 1948, every time the four-quarter change has fallen below 2 percent, the economy has entered a recession. It\u2019s hard to argue against an indicator with such a long &hellip; Continue reading &quot;How The Economy Quietly Entered A Recession On Friday, And Why The GDP Predicts A Sub-Zero Nonfarm Payroll Number | ZeroHedge&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/08\/29\/how-the-economy-quietly-entered-a-recession-on-friday-and-why-the-gdp-predicts-a-sub-zero-nonfarm-payroll-number-zerohedge\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"the patient investor\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/profile.php?id=61572934660810\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2011-08-30T03:45:55+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"ColinTwiggs\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"ColinTwiggs\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/08\/29\/how-the-economy-quietly-entered-a-recession-on-friday-and-why-the-gdp-predicts-a-sub-zero-nonfarm-payroll-number-zerohedge\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/08\/29\/how-the-economy-quietly-entered-a-recession-on-friday-and-why-the-gdp-predicts-a-sub-zero-nonfarm-payroll-number-zerohedge\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"ColinTwiggs\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#\/schema\/person\/cb072791ac83e8bae585007c133d54a5\"},\"headline\":\"How The Economy Quietly Entered A Recession On Friday, And Why The GDP Predicts A Sub-Zero Nonfarm Payroll Number | ZeroHedge\",\"datePublished\":\"2011-08-30T03:45:55+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/08\/29\/how-the-economy-quietly-entered-a-recession-on-friday-and-why-the-gdp-predicts-a-sub-zero-nonfarm-payroll-number-zerohedge\/\"},\"wordCount\":96,\"commentCount\":2,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#organization\"},\"articleSection\":[\"US &amp; Canada\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/08\/29\/how-the-economy-quietly-entered-a-recession-on-friday-and-why-the-gdp-predicts-a-sub-zero-nonfarm-payroll-number-zerohedge\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/08\/29\/how-the-economy-quietly-entered-a-recession-on-friday-and-why-the-gdp-predicts-a-sub-zero-nonfarm-payroll-number-zerohedge\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/08\/29\/how-the-economy-quietly-entered-a-recession-on-friday-and-why-the-gdp-predicts-a-sub-zero-nonfarm-payroll-number-zerohedge\/\",\"name\":\"How The Economy Quietly Entered A Recession On Friday, And Why The GDP Predicts A Sub-Zero Nonfarm Payroll Number | ZeroHedge - the patient investor\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2011-08-30T03:45:55+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/08\/29\/how-the-economy-quietly-entered-a-recession-on-friday-and-why-the-gdp-predicts-a-sub-zero-nonfarm-payroll-number-zerohedge\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/08\/29\/how-the-economy-quietly-entered-a-recession-on-friday-and-why-the-gdp-predicts-a-sub-zero-nonfarm-payroll-number-zerohedge\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2011\/08\/29\/how-the-economy-quietly-entered-a-recession-on-friday-and-why-the-gdp-predicts-a-sub-zero-nonfarm-payroll-number-zerohedge\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"How The Economy Quietly Entered A Recession On Friday, And Why The GDP Predicts A Sub-Zero Nonfarm Payroll Number | ZeroHedge\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/\",\"name\":\"The Patient Investor\",\"description\":\"Smart. 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We expect the interest rate corridor to be\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;UK &amp; Europe&quot;","block_context":{"text":"UK &amp; Europe","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/countries-regions\/uk-europe-countries-regions\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":15652,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2017\/07\/28\/nasdaq-soars\/","url_meta":{"origin":501,"position":1},"title":"Nasdaq soars","author":"ColinTwiggs","date":"July 28, 2017","format":false,"excerpt":"GDP results for the second quarter of 2017 reflect recovery from the soft patch in 2016. Source: St Louis Fed, BLS & BEA Nominal GDP for Q2 improved to 3.71%, measured annually. This closely follows our intial estimate calculated from Nonfarm Payroll * Average Weekly Hours * Average Hourly Rate.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Economy&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Economy","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":20206,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/04\/04\/sp-500-lets-hope-for-a-recession\/","url_meta":{"origin":501,"position":2},"title":"S&#038;P 500: Hoping for a recession","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"April 4, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"A recession is normally identified as a contraction of real GDP for two consecutive quarters. A depression is a GDP contraction of at least 10% or a recession that lasts for at least two years. At present, with the level of liquidity injected by central banks and prospects of large\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Deficit Spending &amp; Employment&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending &amp; Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":20464,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2020\/05\/06\/jobs-and-gdp-growth\/","url_meta":{"origin":501,"position":3},"title":"Jobs and GDP growth","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"May 6, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"The view is often promoted that low GDP growth over the past decade is caused by low interest rates and balance sheet expansion (QE) by central banks. That is putting the cart before the horse. Central banks have tried to stimulate their economies, with massive QE and low interest rates,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Deficit Spending &amp; Employment&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending &amp; Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Real GDP and Nonfarm Payroll Growth","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/realgdp-employment.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/realgdp-employment.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/realgdp-employment.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/realgdp-employment.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/thepatientinvestor.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/realgdp-employment.png?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":19025,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2019\/10\/05\/sp-500-survives-but-risk-is-elevated\/","url_meta":{"origin":501,"position":4},"title":"S&#038;P 500 survives but risk is elevated","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"October 5, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"Our recession indicator, a 3-month TMO of seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls, ticked up slightly to 0.52%. This reflects a slight improvement in monthly employment data but the indicator remains precariously close to the amber (high risk) warning level of 0.50%. The red warning level of 0.30% would signal extreme risk\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Deficit Spending &amp; Employment&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Deficit Spending &amp; Employment","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/deficit-spending-employment\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":48870,"url":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/2024\/02\/22\/conference-board-leading-index-no-longer-signals-recession\/","url_meta":{"origin":501,"position":5},"title":"Conference Board | Leading Index no longer signals recession","author":"Colin Twiggs","date":"February 22, 2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The Conference Board Leading Economic Index\u00ae (LEI) for the U.S. fell by 0.4 percent in January to 102.7 (2016=100).... LEI contracted by 3.0 percent over the latest six-months and 7.1 percent over 12 months. \"The U.S. LEI fell further in January, as weekly hours worked in manufacturing continued to decline\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Banks &amp; Interest Rates&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Banks &amp; Interest Rates","link":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/category\/economy\/the-fed-banks-interest-rates\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Conference Board Leading Indicator","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-22-lei.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-22-lei.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.incrediblecharts.com\/images\/2024\/2024-02-22-lei.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/501","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=501"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/501\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=501"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=501"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thepatientinvestor.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=501"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}